5.5 Years To Flow?
02-20-2020 | 03:49 AM
#43
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All of the math is an estimate at best, and more likely a WAG. There are two huge unknown factors:
1. Outside Attrition - it’s hardly useful to use the past as a predictive tool considering what everyone anticipates the Legacy hiring to be over the next few years
2. The Flow Agreements - There is not a single pilot who has flowed to AA under an agreement that was in place when they were hired (at least in the last 20 years). The flow agreement staying constant for 5 years is extremely unlikely.
1. Outside Attrition - it’s hardly useful to use the past as a predictive tool considering what everyone anticipates the Legacy hiring to be over the next few years
2. The Flow Agreements - There is not a single pilot who has flowed to AA under an agreement that was in place when they were hired (at least in the last 20 years). The flow agreement staying constant for 5 years is extremely unlikely.
Fortunately, you're wrong. This time, the flow is contractual. It's not going to stop.
02-20-2020 | 04:20 AM
#45
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What they meant was that all of the flow agreements thus far have changed (for the better). I don't know if this is completely true, but what's was meant is 'no one has flowed to AA under the exact same flow terms they were hired under.'
02-20-2020 | 05:52 AM
#46
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Is it perfect, no, is it better than nothing, yes.
02-20-2020 | 05:57 AM
#47
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02-20-2020 | 06:03 AM
#49
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02-20-2020 | 06:33 AM
#50
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From: Fully Retired
In light of this, will you think the flow agreement numbers will remain unchanged? Envoy flow numbers, with no change and no attrition, would result in new hires today flowing in 10 years. Yet hiring will result in 5 years average time to hire for the regionals as a whole.
Try squaring these two in your mind. Ether flows will become meaningless or flow numbers will change. (Baring a black swan event.)
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