Originally Posted by coodrough568

wow you should really be Dougies under-desk boy and not just on APC since you know so much. Also the early retirements...if things were still moving the way they were, that would have only took out about 10 months. AA has about 1000 a year retiring through 2025. So some took it early, that time will burn up before this recovers. If they make it, along with UAL and DAL and whatever crappy regionals, there will be a bigger shortage when it’s said and done. All that is clear now is that AA is accepting they will be smaller when this is over. The one thing they have going for them is they can just “retire” to a smaller airline.

Sure the flow may be a carrot, but I’d still rather sit around and flow to a legacy in 10 years than get stuck at a regional for life. We can get hired outside of the flow, we can get hired at other majors. It’s not like we can’t leave and go somewhere else, but if all doesn’t work out, there is a flow. A family member of mine is a captain at AA. He tells me all the time his co pilots were “at so and so regional for 16 years”, so a 10 year flow still isn’t as bad as it could be. Maybe go talk to a counselor or something. Try to find something positive, seems like everyone on APC just wants to get on here and vent about $hit that doesn’t matter to them. Everything you say just screams “I picked a $hitty regional that went out of business and I’m just pi$$ed somebody else still has an opportunity that I didn’t get!”

Originally Posted by Excargodog

Still trying to make it about me rather than the flow? And wanting to play shrink? I give you rational arguments and all you can do is throw insults and psychobabble. Do some research and DO THE MATH. AA DOES NOT have “about a 1000 a year retiring through 2025.” They APPROACH a thousand a year in 2025:



but never really get there, and have fewer retirements before and after. And if AA still had the same fleet size they did a year ago - which they don’t, the excess pilots they have aboard now and the 1500+ furloughed would still take care of their hiring needs to offset retirements until 2024. And then what? How many WO pilots is AAG contractually bound to access when they are hiring? 15 a month? That’s 180 a year. And how many pilots at AA WO regionals? 5200 or so?

So quit with the insults and psychobabble and face facts. Do the research and do the math, or pay someone who knows how to do it for you.

Or at least if you must psychobabble, here’s a psychobabble term you might want to consider:

Originally Posted by Excargodog

Still trying to make it about me rather than the flow? And wanting to play shrink? I give you rational arguments and all you can do is throw insults and psychobabble. Do some research and DO THE MATH. AA DOES NOT have “about a 1000 a year retiring through 2025.” They APPROACH a thousand a year in 2025:



but never really get there, and have fewer retirements before and after. And if AA still had the same fleet size they did a year ago - which they don’t, the excess pilots they have aboard now and the 1500+ furloughed would still take care of their hiring needs to offset retirements until 2024. And then what? How many WO pilots is AAG contractually bound to access when they are hiring? 15 a month? That’s 180 a year. And how many pilots at AA WO regionals? 5200 or so?

So quit with the insults and psychobabble and face facts. Do the research and do the math, or pay someone who knows how to do it for you.

Or at least if you must psychobabble, here’s a psychobabble term you might want to consider:

Originally Posted by Inclined plane

What’s the point of arguing (passionately) against the flow? We are all adults (yes even the newbie CFIs) and absolutely do not need anyone warning about the flow carrot. To continually spend energy on it is a complete waste of one’s time (even if you have no woman/no life... still a waste of time even then) It’s akin to going door to door warning someone of the hidden misstep of belonging to a given religion or political group. People make up their own minds/have their own reasons for working where they do. Leave them be. Let them make choices. Let them critically think. Why do some have a messiah complex and feel they need to enlighten others who “just don’t get it”? No one NEEDS the insight, especially by people who are not experts on the matter. No one is wanting to be saved. My 2 cents.


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Originally Posted by ERAUAV8TR

For many years I wondered whats the point of the flow? Some pilots say “Plan B”, some say only hope to majors (skeletons?), some say only gateway to AA.

However, prior to covid, envoy flow was about to be severely throttled to 15, thus increasing dramatically off the street new hires, making outside regional hiring greater...moreover looking at skywest pilot averages, he or she only spent 3-4 years on property. Much shorter than the made up 5.5 years that will never occur. Last flowed was eagle hire at 8 years. Since no one at envoy has flowed, whats the point? Additionally, some have concluded that other airlines like dal or ual are reluctant to hire envoyers do to thinking of their AA fandom. Thus, little outside attrition exists compared to other regionals.

Wouldn’t the regional prison sentence be shorter without the flow? Just look at other regionals averages!

Originally Posted by coodrough568

so in other words, I was correct. You lost a job when compass went under, had to go to Atlas and you’re pi$$ed at the world and bitter that someone else might have an opportunity never available to you.

good luck Corndog.

Originally Posted by Excargodog

Nope. Cheapest pilot the major can hire is retired military. The person is near zero training risk and he/she is probably 45 years old. So you got someone who already has a pension, already has pretty good medical coverage, and will only be around for 20 years - spending only eight years at the top of the scale. What they really DON’T want is some twenty-something zero-to-hero guy/gal who is going to be at top of the scale for three decades. It’s basic queuing theory.

And whatever savings they might get at the WO by getting rid of the top guy/gal by flowing them to the major are DWARFED by the savings they make by leaving them right at the WO. Every year they delay flowing that guy costs them a year of longevity for a FO and a CA at the WO which costs them what? $2 an hour for each of them?

FO pay at the WO starts at $50 an hour and goes up to $56 at year four. That’s less than $2 per year per year increase.
Similarly, CA pay goes up about $2 a year as well, so the cost to the WO of your seniority for the two pilots is $4 per hour per year per year.

So what does it cost AA per year once you do flow? Depends on the aircraft but for a A320 pilot the annual increase is about $9 an hour per year per year for an FO and $2 an hour per year per year.

Heck, they MAKE money for every year they keep you on the WO because that’s one year less they are going to pay you top scale at the major.

BUT DON’T BELIEVE ME. Find your own financial advisor and put the question to them. Let THEM tell you, it’ll be money well spent.

The most economically advantageous thing AA can do is to slow flow to the maximum extent they can that will still attract WO new hires. It isn’t personal with them. It’s just business. And with billions in debt, high debt service costs, a lot of disgruntled stockholders because they’ve had to sell so much stock at a reduced price it will have drastically diluted the earnings per share even when they do become positive, and a reduced sized fleet leading to open gates and slots with loss of market share to the LC/ULCC carriers who will recover more quickly, AAG needs to save every dime they can.

Originally Posted by Excargodog

Well, I didn’t START this thread, a little over a year ago:



So I’d suggest you take that up with the guy who did. What I would suggest is that you stop trying to psychoanalyze the motives of people who put up FACTS on APC and let the people who DESIRE to judge issues based on facts rather than opinion do so while you either ignore or block people that have facts or - yes, even opinions - that differ from yours, rather than accusing people you don’t even know if having a “Messianic complex” or “no woman/no life.”

In fact, I do have a woman, family, and no Messianic complex, I’m simply on perennial reserve having gotten to my destination airline and my final seniority number in a black swan year when most pax airline hiring stopped altogether, meaning I’m in a rented room far from that woman about 18 days a month with so damn little call for reserve flying I was fortunate to be able to consolidate my new rating without an extra trip to the sims. But that does give me plenty of time to post facts on APC. It beats daytime TV.

But if you must psychoanalyze posters, please tell everyone why all the opinionated people who are unable to refute facts feel compelled to denigrate the character, motivation, and heterosexuality of someone rather than just dealing with the reality of (or refuting if wrong) those facts. Is this compensation for some psychological or physical deficiency, simple denial, mommy dropped them on their head as a child, or what?

Inquiring minds want to know...

Originally Posted by coodrough568

he’s butthurt and resorting to calling sitting reserve at Atlas in year one “pretty”

Originally Posted by Inclined plane

You sound upset. That was too easy. My bad. Lol


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