Not likely. There is no reason to think there will be large scale displacements anytime soon. There are also lots of midrange or even senior FOs that want the 175 either for MIA or QOL. They would scoop up (PDIS) any displacements that happen. If you get assigned the 145 in training now, you’ll likely be on that airframe for most/all of your time as an FO.

We have 7 E170s on the way (to ORD for now). SkyWest has 21 CRJ7s on the way (DFW, ORD and PHX) and that’s not including all their CRJs in LAX that will be moving back east in the next year as their 175s come in.

That’s a minimum of 28 65 seaters that will enter service (more likely 35-40) and their target flying will be what we do with the 145 now. The 145s will probably start to be retired pretty soon, so there very well could be displacements.

I can’t even count anymore how many times I’ve been told that the 145/140’s are on their way to the scrap heap. This time is different… yep, heard that countless times too. I’m not saying it won’t happen this time, but I certainly wouldn’t take that as a given for transferring off the 145.

Even if they do decide to start shrinking it again, they could easily shrink the pilot group through attrition.

Agreed. We're really just talking about FOs being displaced for the purposes of this discussion and I'd be willing to bet if they did start retiring the 145s or sending them elsewhere in any way, I bet it will be a slow enough process that FOs will be upgrading out of the airplane enough to not need FO to FO seat displacements.

Think about the CRJ. Those were “going away” for a long time. Until it got down to the last 10 or so, they didn’t displace anybody.

I’ve been here for 4 years and I highly doubt I’ll see American before 2027

sarcasm..


//

Displacements from the right seat of the 145 have gone very senior through proffers.

2024 is (was) the year for the EMB's. That hasn't really changed from even the bankruptcy days when they had to open their books. I'm sure that part (year) has been mentioned publicly in the distant past. Not sure if I can say more due to NDA. Without a clear okay from legal, I won't go into detail. Besides, their plans do change a little over time and I'm sure it's changed some since 2016. Covid may have made that more financially feasible to do sooner, with the glut of good used aircraft on the market cheap.

Shrinking isn't the plan, replacing is. The replacing will mean displacements. The shrinking comes later from the pilot shortage.... along with consolidations, mergers, buyouts and other messy things.

They weren't in a pilot staffing problem at that time either.
I'd be willing to bet they will ask for an LOA giving them some relief on displacement bidding. Something like only those actually being displaced get to bypass seat locks and such.

What will you get in return? Who knows; 5 extra seats in every new hire class? Costs them nothing, helps recruiting, helps movement, helps careers. Get rid of the monthly language and just go with percentage of each new hire class. Eagle/Envoy used to be 50% of each new hire class, and that got given away. monumental loss. Tell them you want the first 50% of every new hire class position. Throw in fixing reserve too while your at it.

Knock off the behind the scenes in the dark piecemeal LOA's that are the band-aids THEY need, while doing little to nothing for the line guys. Just say NO, until you start getting stuff of substance. You've tried the piecemeal stuff the past 6 years; it hasn't worked very well.