For AA not to hire steadily the next 10 years would require freezing time. Extending it two years (65 to 67) doesn't change much either in the big picture. The mandatory retirements alone drive the hiring. Every major is facing this kind of hiring issue.

AA Mandatory Retirements by Year. Doesn't include early retirements or any growth at all.

2015 - 285
2016 - 341
2017 - 424
2018 - 562
2019 - 692
2020 - 796
2021 - 830
2022 - 870
2023 - 1,003
2024 - 956

Total 6,759 in the 10 year duration of our CBA

2200 Envoy pilots
1850ish that will flow. At 50% that means 3,700 retirements are needed to send our 1850 (and assumes they won't hire in advance to front load the years with heavy retirements)
The retirements totals hit 3,700 in 2021.
So, doing the 50% flow it's still 6 years to flow our entire list to AA.

Any growth at all, and any front loading new hires to balance training just sends ourt guys faster. Lately we've been getting up to 66% of each class, so going early isn't out of the question. They've realized it lowers our average longevity, and helps their final bottom line to move our senior guys over quickly so long as it doesn't hurt the operation here.

Don't get me wrong, there is a ton of stuff they do that is just outright wrong... but thier flow since AAG took over from AMR isn't one of them, they've been performing better than agreed.

 

Flow is more important than PIC time, there are quite literally thousands of pilots with 121 PIC who can't get an interview at a legacy to save their lives.

I don't regret turning Compass down, it's likely that company is one of the early regionals to fold as it's owned by TransStates and had absolutely abysmal performance for AA which will likely lead to penalties.

I'm much happier out of aviation completely, thanks for the update on where I'd be at Compass though.

 

Of course, if you DO flow, you are automatically considered a loser who couldn't get hired anywhere else and not worthy of the job itself............well, at least to many of those waiting to............yep, flow themselves.

 

I am betting it will happen even faster: you are forgetting to count for attrition as well. I'd bank on at least 20% of the FOs and young CAs here leaving for LCCs and other majors before they ever flow to AA. UAL and Duhhhlta blow their wad on retirements much sooner than AA. Spirit and JetBlue are doubling their fleet size. Virgin America, Allegiant, and Frontier are all hiring gangbusters. Emirates, Qatar, and Etihad have stepped up their recruitment in America.

It really is a good time to be an envoy pilot whether you stay for the flow or move up sooner. The last thing I would do now is lateral to a place without a flow, or a crappy one, just to make CA a bit sooner and sit reserve forever.

 

You hit the bulls-eye on this one, and it's a point I have been trying to make around here. It's tough getting people out of the old mindset of "PIC time is gold".

With that said, I invite everyone to take a look at AA's retirement numbers provided by Cujo, consider how Envoy has 50% of each AA class minimum, and do the math. What Regional will get you to mainline sooner? The only advantage of upgrading to Captain these days at the Regional level is the bump in pay. An enhanced flow is the fastest way to mainline for individual pilots...regardless of what seat they are in.

And even still, Envoy's upgrade times are approaching the 3 1/2 to 4 year mark for newhires and it will continue to drop. The PIC time won't do you any good, but you will get the bump in pay before flowing over to AA with no interview in 6 years or less.

 

Time will tell and I hope you're right. Upgrade right now is still a 2007 hire, though.

 

Just like the flow, the numbers are skewed because of the lost decade of no hiring. For example, our most junior pilot is currently about 5 years from flowing to AA even though the current flow throughs are '99 hires. When you look at who is "currently" doing anything you are painted an inaccurate portrait.

Mathematics is the universal language and doesn't lie and doesn't have bias. Calculate both flow and upgrades based on our flow numbers juxtaposed with AA's retirements. Then keep in mind those numbers are VERY conservative since they don't take into account factors such as growth, early retirements from AA, and Envoy pilots leaving for LCCs, UAL, Delta, and other airlines.

 

The wildcard is whether or not Envoy can attract enough new pilots to keep the flow machine running. Mathematically it doesn't look likely, but as has been said, time will tell.

 

It all depends on the amount of KoolAid AAG would like to give.

Looks like PSA flavor is running out soon.

 

My bud says no Flowthrus for next month (June).

Good Luck!