When one has a fuzzy argument, one resorts to this.

The math itself isn't fuzzy, but the assumptions, hypotheticals and projections it is based on (and that's ALL they are based on) is fuzzy, thus the math becomes fuzzy right along with its foundation by association. I think attempting to add more idiots to the village of Envoy isn't the honorable path at this point. Self-serving, yes, but honorable, no.

 

There is.......the village of Envoy has perhaps 1200-1500 idiots. You know.......the ones who believed their own union when they told them if they didn't agree to concessions demanded as part of the bankruptcy process, they would lose more under an 1113 and voted for the concessions.

Problem was, the 1113 didn't exist and the process by which that is successful would never have resulted in Envoy pilots be gutted like they were. Idiots seem to be hanging from and falling off of trees these days around that village. In fact, it appears idiocy is alive and well as some here demonstrate believing anything they are told as long as it sounds cool enough and already cashing checks that have not only not proven to be valid, but haven't even been mailed.

 

At best it's a pyramid scheme. But for the scheme to work it requires new suckers to take the bait and work there. American is never, ever, going to do anything to destroy their feed. The moment that becomes apparent the game is over. At that point they will drain other non aligned carriers (or loosely aligned) such as Republic.

But for now it serves their purpose. They are busy shrinking the airline and removing as much high cost of labor off the top as they can.

New hires at Envoy though have zero chance of flowing in six years if EVER. That regional feed will be protected as long as possible- ie they will be the last to fold but will eventually fold.

 

I disagree that it isn't POSSIBLE.

For it to be possible though, first AAG (not Envoy management) has to make a commitment to Envoy they so far have not and it has to PROVE itself by bringing in 50 new-hires EVERY month for 6 years IF that theoretical Envoy new-hire of today truly flows in 6 years. The engine has to be SERIOUSLY primed by AAG, THEN it has to run smoothly with no backfires for 6 years requiring a steady stream of gas in the form of those new-hires. If the engine bogs down in a year because they've run out of gas (pilots), ALL projections are off for the pilot hired at Envoy today, that's why I wave the B.S. flag on all the salesmanship being sold here.

Of course, SOME just care about the engine running just long enough to spit THEM out the tail pipe to AA and then those still bouncing around inside Envoy are on their own.

 

You mean like Bill, bacon boy, and the jest himself did?

 

The problem with this is as long as Envoy is open and AA is hiring the flow continues. Really I don't see hiring at AA stopping they will slow it some (pbs, combined domestic international ops ....) But the retirements are staggering. With AA being the largest carrier of the 3 legacies and Envoy receiving 50% of hiring plus another ~15% from psa and pdt then add friends and family. Chances of AA from elsewhere is quite small. Delta runs the same friends and family plan and a large part of hiring coming from endeavor ssp. That leaves about half the mainline hiring over the next decade spoken for. Add the number of people with thousands of hours of pic where do you think todays new hire at republic or Mesa will be hired 5 years from now? The answer Jet Blue and spirit, that's fine if it's your goal just know where it leads.

 

Whoah, careful. You are actually using facts combined with logic. At this moment you are making the heads of firstclass and eaglefly explode.

 

100% right. To add to that, United and Delta have been full steam ahead in hiring off the street with the average age of a new-hire in the low 30's. AA, on the other hand, has hired a fraction of what the others have with the average age being in the high 40's due to flow thru's who have been waiting for 16 plus years. Personally, I'd rather know I'm going to AA, where my seniority will surely sky-rocket.

 

Good point. At the non wholly-owned regional I'm at, attrition rates have been much lower than expected. So many our our pilots have a "legacy or bust" mentality which is holding them back. Yes maybe United will call, but that's still no guarantee. I'm personally devoting my time and energy on the LCC's. Envoy has a good thing going with their flow, as long as they can keep it up.

 

I don't know the motivations of the three you speak of. In fact, I'm not even sure who the last two are. Not ALL those who flowed (or WILL flow) meet the "I got mine, you're on your own" criteria and certainly no one can blame ANY pilot for leaving Envoy to go to AA. I cannot help however but to come to the conclusion some here are nervous and feel it's in their best interest to put lipstick on a pig in the hope it convinces others to pay the entry fee and risk salmonella if it accelerates their departure from an unpleasant picnic.