LOL !

No, my head isn't exploding. His statement too is based on nothing concrete. As I stated previously, the retirement figures (which really aren't THAT spectacular the next few years) don't necessarily equate to an equal number of vacancies. As someone already here, I wish I was that confident, but I'm not. Why salesman like you are, is beyond me, but again, I guess when you're at Envoy nowadays, you'll grasp at ANYTHING to hold onto, even if it is a mirage.

Speaking of exploding heads, should any number of issues by themselves or in combination result in a substantially reduced conga line dance to AA, it will be Envoy pilots heads that start popping like infected zits, especially those hired recently or in the future, because it could very well be a LONG time before the pus stops oozing from their gaping necks.

 

It's going to take a non-stop supply of Viagra for Envoy to keep this "up", that's for sure. But this is all pre-mature (pun intended ) as Envoy hasn't even gotten a boner yet and no babe is in sight. All that's happened so far, is one letter resulting in a bunch of guys whacking themselves and each other off in the biggest circle jerk in the history of the regional airline industry.

 

My theory is that if AA were to suddenly stop hiring for an extended period, then there must have been a massive global event to warrant it. If that were the case, everybody has probably stopped hiring, and I'd rather be towards the top of a regional list then the bottom of a major list.

 

AA doesn't have to STOP hiring for this whole sales pitch to begin major constipation, all they have to do is slow it. In the past, AA hired 80-100 pilots/month and we've been short-staffed for years, yet they continue a hiring plan half the rate they once could do with relative ease.

EVERYTHING can be manipulated for many reasons. Some of us have seen this before (and repeatedly), but thousands of pie-eyed babes in the woods haven't and not surprisingly cannot understand anything but their own intoxication. It will be sad to see yet another generation of suckers fall down the same rabbit hole as many of those that preceded them if history repeats itself in even a small degree, but alas, that is the nature of the dopey airline pilot.

 

Average age of a new hire at Delta and United is 37 (ALPA FFD website).

 

So what is your solution then, go to a regional with a potential quick upgrade rather then a place with a flow? By your own estimation, for the flow to not succeed then hiring at mainline would have to slow or stop. If that were the case, then where is one to go with that precious 121 PIC time?

 

And they've hired quite a few more then AA has in the past couple of years. AA has been trickle hiring, just look at the American Poolie thread.

There's nothing wrong at all with United or Delta and any one of us would be fortunate to go there. However, in the long run, I'd prefer to be at AA. Seniority is everything.

 

I think what he has said is that if Envoy doesn't get the required amount of new hires then they'll meter the flow or stop it all together. Despite what Cujo/Mason32 want you to believe they can and will do that if they can't maintain the lift necessary at Envoy. ENY ALPA will grieve it and 8 years from that point an arbitrator will likely side with ALPA and arbitrate that some number (let's say 824) pilots get to flow to AA provided AA is hiring at 50% of each class which can be metered to 20.

 

From what I understand, if that were to happen it's not simply a contract violation. For the "824" they would be violating a court order (don't think anyone wants to go down that road) and for the Protected Pilots it was an arbitrated agreement. After that, it is part of our CBA in which case they could go ahead and say "grieve it."

BTW, your quick briefing of how the 824 came about is inaccurate. You failed to leave out the few hundred CA's with numbers who kept their Captain pay during the worst decade this industry has seen (likely would have been furloughed) and then were able to flow over at 4 year pay.

 

My solution ?

For whom?

Personally, I wouldn't leave another regional to come to Envoy SOLELY on the projections in one Flight Dept. manager's letter. If I was an entry-level pilot, I wouldn't come to Envoy SOLELY on that basis either. I'd look at where I would be based, the airline's stability, how it treats its employees, the advancement potential based on past behavior, things like that.

Flow-throughs are likely to be an industry standard concept in the future, that is if each of the 3 legacies plan on having viable regional feeders. That means even though Envoy is blowing their horn on this aspect, they likely will have much company in the future. 6 years is a life-time in this industry and considering the future morphing of the regionals which is a virtual certainty, a blue carrier today can easily be red in a few years and vice versa.

This 'sniff' test should alert ANY pilot that when the smell of desperation is in the air accompanied by ambiguous promises, there is a STRONG likelihood someone is trying to sell you a bill of goods............or the Brooklyn Bridge for the interests of themselves or others and not necessarily for you.

Caveat Emptor.