So as one of the "coveted" ATP rated potential new hires looking to return to the industry...it seems obvious to me that a flow to a major would stifle movement at an airline and make upgrade a lot longer. Pilots will stay longer and wait for the flow rather than seek employment at another major. True or false? Also, if you want to work for the major you would flow into wouldn't you get there quicker if you worked at an airline without flow? Envoy will soon only get 35% then 25% of AA new hires that means 65% to 75% of new hires will not be from Envoy.

Anyone...anyone...Bueller?

 

Incorrect. 50% now, it will go down to 35% probably for 2 months. Then 50% until Oct 2011 hire.

From that guy to the latest new hire, there's less than 200 pilots. About 100 of them are 35% of AA slots.

You can get hired off the street into AA from envoy. I talked to a guy that just finished up A-320 training. He told me his class was mostly flow guys (ENY/PSA/PDT), about 5-7 military and 2 or 3 from other airlines. He's was a 747 CA in a ACMI carrier.

For Delta and Endevour Interview might be different. I don't know if they can get hired OTS.

I was in the WAI conference and the competition is hard. AA talked a lot about the envoy flow and how we get a lot of the slots.

 

With the delivery of the 175s, Envoy's flow stays at 50%. We just announced 87 upgrades and are flowing upwards of 300 this year alone. Envoy is right on track per the 2.5 year upgrade and 6 year flow announced last year. If hired today, I would project exactly that. A 2.5 year upgrade and a 6 year flow.

 

That is still steady movement that gets you deeper into the higher mandatory retirement years at the majors. Look, in my 9 years at Eagle things have changed significantly. We did not have flow, now we do. We have also lost a whole lot and gained in other areas. One thing you mite see in the near future is upgrade coming way down due to senior FO's bypassing. With there retention bonus and 200% critical coverage it will make sense for those intending to hold out for flow to accrue more seniority before upgrading

 

The flow creates movement, it doesn't stifle. Right now we have a backlog of pilots due to the lost decade after 9/11. We are the only airline that can guarantee 30 pilots per month leave off the top of the seniority list. And our flow will stay at 50% through pilots hired on October 2011.

Currently United and Delta have about 12,000+ applications on file. Forget American as most new hires come from the flow. Where does your average Regional pilot go in that enormous pile of applications? A few years flying an RJ will give you a leg up over people with military time? Or Airbus time? Or 747 time?

Remember you aren't just competing against other Regional pilots. There are pilots from LCCs, the military, Atlas, Omni, Kalitta, and the list goes on.

So you think that applying off the street at only two majors will work out faster than a no interview flow? Remembering that the flow will be at around 5 to 6 years once the current backlog of pilots go over.

Buy into the Internet cynism if you want...none of these people know what's best for you. They talk the talk but don't walk the walk..it's your choice.

 

Have you guys been hearing the rumors that 2017 will be 100% flows to AA from the wholly owneds? One of our union guys was saying something about that recently and it was also mentioned in a union email. I know we (PSA) go back to the table this summer to talk about increasing our flow, and I know you guys are supposed to meter down to 35% of AA classes after a while. I'm wondering if you guys don't stay at 50% flows for longer than they originally said and us and Piedmont go up a little bit.

I know AAG is aware of all the wholly owneds having issues hiring. And yet all they have ventured forth are increased new hire bonuses which aren't likely to work that well given what is being offered by other regionals. Maybe an increase in the flow and a ton of movement combined with added airframes and increased flying at it's wholly owneds is the ace they have up their sleeve?

 

Wow, can anyone confirm this? That's pretty low.

 

What happened to the 360, you said the other day

 

chrisreedrules,

I haven't heard that yet..although that could be because there is something else in the works that should be announced at Envoy soon. Maybe after that we will hear something in regards to what you have been hearing.

 

I don't think that 100% flow will happen. Isom said that in the future 50% of AA NH will be from the WO. Could that change? Maybe, but a 100% with classes of 10 or less, highly unlikely. Unless they decide to staple us on the bottom of AA with seniority # in according with DOH at the WOs.

Our 35% is for the Protected Pilots, once the 40th 175 arrives we go up to 50% again. Currently we are receiving planes faster than the original schedule. So, it won't surprise me that if there's enought furlough undeferrals it won't go down to 35%.

After the 824 are done, a 2010 NH should be gone withting 24 months. I expect the last Protected pilot to leave around 48 to 60 months after the last 824 guy. That's just counting a minimum of 25 a month.

The last 824 guy should be gone in about 1 yr or less.