There's nothing to say, guys with 8-10 years and 8k-10k hours got hired all over the place last year. It's going down form there. That included a five year freeze from 07-12. The hireing will be more than ever before and the crowd with more than 10 years or 10,000 hours will be passed over for the same reason they've already been.

IF Envoy does have new hire today flow in 6 years it will likely be mostly due to what will be the new norm in 6 years, not some super special carve out for former Eagle guys.
There's more hireing in the next 6 years than the previous 15, so even a 15 year Envoy veteran cant tell you because he was a Cfi the last time hireing was like this.

 

It's the same as every other regional, with the exception that we seem to be more in flux at this time.

As of this moment:

Upgrades are slow and around 8 years. Projections are for it to drop significantly over the next few years. Will it drop to 2.5 years? Who the hell knows... That's all corporate propaganda at this time, but the upgrades will happen thanks to the flow and attrition.

Will ENY implode? No. If a situation arises that ENY is in dire trouble I have a feeling that the entire regional industry will be taking the same hit. We're not going anywhere.

Our shrinkage has slowed, rumors have it that there may actually be some extra re-capture of flying above and beyond what we've been expecting, but that's just a rumor. Like corporate propaganda, don't believe it until it happens.

Now that some of the other "OMG six weeks to captain!" regionals have slowed, IMO ENY is the place to get the foot in the door NOW. Not in a year or two when things really take off, then it's too late. IF they hire, flow and upgrade they way they predicted it's gonna be a nice ride for a few years.

There's plenty of haters on this board that love to hear themselves talk about the sky falling, but right now the things I've mentioned are in motion. While anything is possible and a giant meteor from outer space with space-suited terrorists and too-big-to-fail bankers riding it waving turbans and cowboy hats wanting to destroy both economy, our freedomz and planet by pile-driving into the Earth, life is full of risks. Make a choice, hope for the best and plan for the worst.

The one thing I will say is that our flow should not be a career making decision. Don't come here expecting to flow, always be looking for the next step up. One can certainly take advantage of the tangential effects of the flow while here, though - quick rise in seniority, hopefully approach an upgrade quickly and the associated benefits of better schedules with the rise in relative seniority.

 

The lions share of the pilots were hired before 10-11-2011
Bankruptcy in 12-2011 with nobody on the list until 11-2012
And it's under roughly 200 since then.
It will go fast after they get through the 2011 hires. Even at 35% of each class there aren't a lot of guys in front of somebody getting hired now.

Kinda like getting hired at PSA just before they got more planes. A long upgrade went down to almost nothing.

 

Exactly. That's what I've been saying all along. When they came up with these projections that show a 2.5 year upgrade and s 6 year flow, it wasn't just out of thin air. There's actually math behind it and a rational explanation of the numbers.

Couple that with the massive amount of retirements over the next decade and voila. There's your 2.5/6. I'm sure we would all like to turn back the clocks, but as I've said before. Unless somebody discovers the fountain of youth, it's a great time to be an Envoy pilot right now.

 

I think it's the "and voila" part that pilots question. The reality is that 2.5/6 would be for a small number of pilots after shrinkage and before re-growth. You have been claiming this window has been open for what will soon be a year. I am guessing for those few dozen pilots it's now 1.5/5 huh?

 

Nobody is claiming "voila" as you say (except for Cujo664, but that's another story). The 2.5/6 came out less than 6 months ago, so I would hardly claim 1.5/5 anytime soon.

Question for you...In order for new applicants to trust the 2.5/6, do you want to wait another 2 years and re-visit the topic? Or do you want AAG to guarantee that said pilot will upgrade in 2.5 and be at AA in 6 years? Because that sort of guarantee is not gonna happen.

If you want to talk about reality, then the reality is envoy is done shrinking and likely getting back more flying. The reality is that 50% of classes at AA will be made up of envoy pilots for at least the next 5 years. The reality is that current attrition is not only from a very substantial amount of flows, but also normal attrition.

So...will 2.5/6 happen? I'm extremely confident it will, but won't guarantee it.

 

No, there aren't garentees, but putting that number in people's head is exactly how you get jaded FO's. I think the next 6 years will be far better than the previous 6 years.
I truely think that any young Cfi going to a jet regional that operates or has plans to operate a 50+ seat jet will have a stable furture for the next 6 years and won't see any real curve balls.
I think your company will be just fine, and will be just as good a choice as any other. The 2.5/6 is an aggressive marketing tool like the 1k pilots PSA needs. Cujo sounds like the washed up bum at a race track that just knows which horse to bet on even though his track record is terrable, and he's not going to place any bets himself.

 

Enjoy your time at PSA, I hear you upgrade there before your new hire training!

 

Are you in first grade?

Good Luck!

 

Just wait and see if my projections don't pan out. With the amount of retirements happening, unless somebody discovers the fountain of youth, I expect the ENTIRE current Envoy list to be at AA in 6 years.

The 2.5 year upgrade we have here is just a plus. Would you rather be a regional FO for 8 years somewhere else? Here, you'll be an FO for 2.5 or less and then flow to AA at the 6 year mark or less. At another regional you could very likely still be on the right seat when someone hired at Envoy on the same day is flowing to AA. We are already essentially American Airlines pilots from day one of hire at Envoy anyway. Also, why do you think that Envoy has such stringent hiring standards? Because we are hired as an AA pilot. That's why.

Ask yourself. What other regional out there has a 2.5 year upgrade and a 6 year flow to the largest major airline in the world?

It's a great time to be an Envoy pilot.