go skers

Based on the seniority list from mid July

2001-84
No hiring 9/3/01-1/3/04
2004-104
2005-58
2006-106
2007-222
2008-124
No hiring 5/12/08-3/15/10
2010-98
2011-271
2013/current-352

The "824" group that gets to carry their vacation and sick accrual rates and get 50% metered to 30/month comes to an end sometime early summer 2017 and the switches to the protected pilot group which flows at 50% metered to 25/month. That agreement essentially covers pilots hired through 2011. From 2013 onward it comes out to around 15/month, the agreements are posted on the APC profile page if you really want to get into the deep stuff.

If AA hires consistently it'll take:
9 months to cover the 824 agreement (30/mo)
36 months to cover PP agreement (25/mo)
28 months 2013-present (15-10/mo variable based on size)

6 years to flow is in the general ballpark. Attrition at Envoy and random months of no hiring at AA could move those numbers in either direction. Typically the closer a pilot is to flowing the less likely they are to go elsewhere. CA attrition outside of flow is usually single digits per month. CA upgrade seems to be the cutoff where attrition drops.

Zombie apocalypses, unforeseen economic collapses and theories about management stopping the flow altogether could change it even more but good luck predicting those things.

E175 Driver

But how many do wee need to hire to let all these people flow?
For 30/25 flows a month we need to be hiring like gangbusters.

Skyvector

Factual numbers are such a breath of fresh air around here. Thank you.

CLT Guy

PSA is flowing early 2007. The last 2006's are gone or leaving soon.

AcesHigh

Any 145 new hires that just finished training? I have a few questions.

adspilot

And your point is?

CLT Guy

Someone asked a question as to what seniority numbers were flowing at other WO'd. I answered.

What is your problem?

AcesHigh

There is no problem. Moving along.

TrinityDawn

I think the unfortunate reality is that as line pilots, there is very little we can do as employees to "make it better." That ball is entirely in management's court. We were a profitable company with excellent performance numbers before bankruptcy, and now that our numbers have climbed back into similar ranges again, management thinks there is no f^€Łing problem here. They actually told the union they think morale is fine because "complaint letters from employees have dropped." The real story is that everyone is so demoralized they have given up, because it's clear management doesn't care about our opinions or QOL or our contract. They think vocal individuals like myself are in the minority, when in reality most of the people I fly with are similarly exhausted and ready to bail when a better opportunity presents itself. I've given 10 years of my life to trying to make this company successful, time I can't get back, only to watch management **** it away and treat us like peons. You may be able to forgive that kind of behavior, but I will never forget it.

Sliceback

Hiring numbers - thanks. Great info for guys trying to figure things out.