True. People look at it saying its currently a 16 year flow, when really it is currently a 12 year flow, because 3 of those years there was zero hiring, and one year only 8 are left. Yes the people currently flowing have been here for 16 years. That will not be true for everyone else. As far as projected upgrades or flows go, here is an idea of who is left still on the seniority list and how it will both effect upgrade time and flow projections. I took what was on the ALPA unofficial seniority list from DEC that I got from a Eaglet, so it is not 100% correct or current.

The 99s are just about gone to the flow. Anyone more senior is staying, and also a few including in this list who are choosing not to flow.

2000-165
2001-88
2002-0
2003-0
2004-113
2005-63
2006-111
2007-230
2008-113
2009-0
2010-105
2011-297
2012-8
2013-75
2014-65
2015-98

Take it for what its worth and make your own assumptions.

 

See, we can be productive.

 

I would also put a guestimate of 50ish senior guys opting to go after the 824, I personally know of a few who are going to exercise that right.

 

You are referring to the eagle rights guys who chose not to flow and were not eligible for the 824?

 

Yup. Anyone who wasn't eligible for the 824 is eligible for flow via the protected pilot agreement. The ones who are likely to exercise this right are those from NY and MIA who were content at finishing their career at eagle by living in base. That is no longer possible at envoy, only at AA, therefor you will see a few of these guys jump ship the second the 824 is complete. My guess is 50...could be less, could be more.

 

It wont be anywhere near 50.. Less than 10 maybe. They have had plenty of chances to leave by now.. I know a lot in that group from the closed bases and don't know a single one changing their mind. They are staying. There could be a few mind changers, but not many.. There isn't all that many left in those groups to begin with.

 

Ha! Hilarious.. 10.. Ya ok.. I know 50 personally that are waiting for the 824 to be complete so they can take another bite. Good luck with that

 

10 or 50. Not really a significant number anyways and these guys are fully entitled to flow under the PP agreement. Good for them if they chose to exercise it. PP is a list thing - not a number thing like the 824 which is just that, 824 pilots. PP is all the pilots on the list up to 10/11/2011. The more that go under the PP agreement (and not chose to stay), the more "value" we get out of it.

 

That's fine. They've had enough chances to make a choice. Enough with the flip-flopping, they can go in turn. Honestly, by the time they got around to getting all the lawyers involved, waiting for a judge's time, a few hearings and finally a judgement they'd have the opportunity to flow under the PP provisions before the remedy was handed down. Less seniority, though.

 

It's amusing how some folks here put so much faith in this management team to honor its PP "agreement".