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Old 03-23-2017, 02:38 PM
  #1891  
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Originally Posted by airlinegypsy View Post
Your English is making you sound more and more like Rondonq


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Old 03-23-2017, 03:16 PM
  #1892  
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Any guys coming off IOE in LGA know how long reserve is? Is it possible to never sit reserve up there?
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Old 03-23-2017, 05:28 PM
  #1893  
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Default Upgrade times

I was doing some napkin math on upgrade times and was curious where the numbers are coming from.

If Envoy is hiring 60 or so per month as they have the past five months, that is roughly 720 per year. If the numbers on APC of 1850 pilots is accurate, I would guess slightly more than half of those are captains, or say 950, leaving 900 first officers. At the rate of 60 per month, it will only be 15 months to hire 900 new first officers. I'm reasonably certain not all of the attrition is captains, but even adding 20 percent to that should mean someone hired in this wave could make it to captain in 18 months.

Or am I missing part of the equation?
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Old 03-23-2017, 05:35 PM
  #1894  
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Originally Posted by 402FreightDog View Post
I was doing some napkin math on upgrade times and was curious where the numbers are coming from.

If Envoy is hiring 60 or so per month as they have the past five months, that is roughly 720 per year. If the numbers on APC of 1850 pilots is accurate, I would guess slightly more than half of those are captains, or say 950, leaving 900 first officers. At the rate of 60 per month, it will only be 15 months to hire 900 new first officers. I'm reasonably certain not all of the attrition is captains, but even adding 20 percent to that should mean someone hired in this wave could make it to captain in 18 months.

Or am I missing part of the equation?
We are currently growing, albeit slowly. As the flow slows a little (per our agreements) we could grow a little faster, though I think hiring could slow as well if other regionals leapfrog us in pay/bonuses. Anyway, growth is one missing part of your equation.
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Old 03-23-2017, 06:30 PM
  #1895  
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Originally Posted by 402FreightDog View Post
I was doing some napkin math on upgrade times and was curious where the numbers are coming from.

If Envoy is hiring 60 or so per month as they have the past five months, that is roughly 720 per year. If the numbers on APC of 1850 pilots is accurate, I would guess slightly more than half of those are captains, or say 950, leaving 900 first officers. At the rate of 60 per month, it will only be 15 months to hire 900 new first officers. I'm reasonably certain not all of the attrition is captains, but even adding 20 percent to that should mean someone hired in this wave could make it to captain in 18 months.

Or am I missing part of the equation?
I kept wondering how fast upgrade times would drop. And with similar numbers to your napkin math I assumed 35 CAs gone and a net of 45 FO increase. So for us to maintain proportionate CA/FO numbers then we need to upgrade 40 per month. (I know we had 85+scheduled to enter CA upgrade training in APR/MAY, but I haven't looked beyond. Also, a new flow plan might change that.) Using 900 FOs at 40 per month that's 22.5. Subtract ALL the pilots not upgrading, add some delays in for the school house to get use to the new attrition, and finally the unknown and add that to your equation. I wouldn't short our upgrade time, but I definitely would buy some put options in a bet it goes sub two years.
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Old 03-23-2017, 06:58 PM
  #1896  
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Originally Posted by Ijustlikeflying View Post
It doesn't change your thoughts/napkin math much, but my seniority number was in the low 2000's when I got hired a few months ago. What's on APC is inaccurate, as far as pilot body goes.
As of March 11 we have 1901. The number were, if I can remember correctly, in the low or mid 1800 in the fall. The information is published every month.

There are two seniority numbers. One gets updated every six months on the master seniority list and the other gets updated slightly more frequently. This number is found in DECS and can be very different than the master seniority list since we have high attrition.
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Old 03-23-2017, 08:10 PM
  #1897  
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Students going to Paris would most likely be the Qualified upgrades....more prepared and less affected by the distractions.

For Instructors it will most likely be only check airman since they can teach and do the checking events....the company doesn't want to send over more people than they have to. Plus I heard it is only one sim.
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Old 03-23-2017, 09:11 PM
  #1898  
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New wifi and FMS in E140/145 A/C means they are staying on Envoy's property for a while?
Not transferring to PDT?
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Old 03-23-2017, 10:02 PM
  #1899  
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Originally Posted by Student01 View Post
New wifi and FMS in E140/145 A/C means they are staying on Envoy's property for a while?
Not transferring to PDT?
Not necessarily. The FMS units will need to be installed anyway to be compliant with ADS-B requirements even if they go to PDT. AAG pays for it so it doesn't matter who of the two carriers are operating the planes when the FMS's get installed. And from what I've heard, the latest is that WIFI isn't going to happen as originally indicated.
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Old 03-24-2017, 07:37 AM
  #1900  
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So Envoy is getting rid of all their 145's to PDT? By when? And what are they going to replace them with?
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