jcountry

I definitely thought the LASA side had a solid contract until at least 2020. (That’s when t was supposed to expire.). That was very profitable flying at one time.

But we saw how that went.

SKYW will definitely close down LXJT. I hate it, but it will happen. They are making an example of what happens to unionized work groups.

Another factor is that SKYW mgmt nowadays is not run by Atkins. I think he had different plans. The new tactic seems to be almost a corporate raider mentality.

Blackhawk

While possible (I also didn't see the CRJ news coming this soon), I don't think Inc will risk losing the number of pilots they just lost from the CRJ side. Same with UAL... though who knows what they really think.
With DAL they had an operation up and running with Endeavor to absorb LASA pilot after the contract termination was announced, and many went there (and Envoy). Currently I don't see UAL having anything similar. Their initial attempt to give CommutAir ERJs didn't go well. That is picking up again, but don't see them being able to field 100+ ERJ's if they had issues handling what... about 20? I guess UAL could swoop in and purchase someone else and set them up, but it took DAL a few years to get Endeavor to the point where they could handle the airplanes.
But again, to the OP's point. None of us really knows what will happen. We could be the next Comair, or we could turn into Endeavor. Or something else. I think a year of seniority would not be losing much to give it a shot if the bases are right for him/her.

jcountry

A year can be a big deal in this industry.

If anyone has the option, I would recommend one of the regionals with an actual flow through. I hear 2013 hires are flowing from PSA right now.

Of course, your point about bases is a good one. Everyone's situation is different, and that could be a huge consideration for some.

But people need to know what they are getting into. If anyone has a long-term future planned out at a regional, this ain't it. Hell, I think even SKYW wouldn't be a long-term plan. Those guys are getting a seniority problem as well. We have seen what happens to seniority-heavy regionals.

Blackhawk

A year can be a big deal but much of that depends on your age. If you are in your late 40's that year is a really big deal. In your mid 20's, not so much.
Still, I do usually recommend one of the AAL feeders as well, though I tell pilots not to rely on the flow and to get apps out, just use it as a backup.
Yeah, I do think Inc pilots will start to see their fast upgrades slowing down. The fact that CC and other Inc management expressed concerns about XJT pilot attrition was telling.
But any pilot in this industry should view what happened here as a wakeup call not to get comfortable until the logo on your paycheck matches the logo on the tail.

DrunkenShytbird

Yeah and even if the Paycheck/Tail Logo is the same, you still aren't out of the woods. Look at Eastern, Pan Am, TWA & Braniff, et. al..
I was on a United JS Recently with two distinguished old Gentleman & they had a pretty funny conversation (black humor) about how many times that they had been furloughed in their Careers at various Airlines AND at United.
This ain't a Career for Sissies. You're gonna get hit hard a few times with something or other, be it Airline Bankruptcy, up to and including full Dissolution of your Airline, Medical Issues, Divorce, or simply having to choose between a (non) Life of either Commuting, or uprooting the Family every few years as Domiciles come and go. I would argue that this is not a good Family oriented Career as well, hence the high divorce and Family break up rate.
Probably best for People, Gay or Straight, that decide to not have a Family, or pets and maybe their Partner/Significant Other is also at the Airline and they can bid together. Those People might have a good go of it, or maybe you just get lucky and it's all Sunshine & Unicorns.

Blackhawk

Much depends on luck, but much also depends on who you are. My marriage is still strong after 25+ years, and I know as many pilots who are still married as I do who are divorced. While many of the latter blame it on the airlines, they really need to look in the mirror, or at their former spouse for the root of the problem.

Puck Hawg

Full heartedly disagree about the family part. I have lots of friends that sit in traffic, an hour each day, just to wheel into the same 9-5 rat race that everyone else is. Those guys miss more ball games and practices than I do....and I’m a 13 year regional guy still on min days off....Yes, holidays, birthdays, and anniversaries are never easy to miss, but if you make your time off more about enjoying your time together with family, the job is easy. I’m on 3 weeks vacay right now, and I picked up a trip because my wife is getting irritated with me being home (HA!)

If you and the wife want to make it work, you can. It just takes commitment from both people. In today’s morally bankrupt society, giving up is the easy part.

No life as a commuter? Depends, although, I would argue that living in the majority of cesspool legacy hubs is more than worth the commute. I choose to commute because I want my children to live near family. Commuting adds a few hours a week to this chaotic career, but it’s nice to not be hung up in city traffic, high tax rates, or riding in urine soaked trains/subways.

To each their own, but, I’m able to truly enjoy my days off.

DrunkenShytbird

My Marriage has remained intact as well, though not much else has, haha.
I merely try and wave the cautionary flag after so many will vigorously wave the B.S. Flag.
To "Fly" through this Career unscathed, I believe, is the exception & not the rule. YMMV.

Blackhawk

I agree. People talk about the bad luck you can have, pilots who flew for Pan Am, Braniff, TWA. Well, that happens in every industry. In 1973 my dad went from being a VP at a Fortune 500 company to scrubbing buildings and selling firewood to pay the mortgage. I got to be good at fishing, not for enjoyment but because fried fish goes well with scrambled eggs for breakfast and we didn't have money for sausage.
No one wanted to hire a 50 year old executive. It crushed him, here he was a proud WWII vet with a Purple Heart but he couldn't provide for his family. He turned to alcohol but he remained a good father and husband. He may have been drunk when he came to my lacrosse games, but he was still there and he was a polite drunk- only my mom, girlfriend and I knew he was sauced. And he still spent what little extra money he had trying to make my mom happy.
So yeah, there are tough things about this job. But I've had jobs that sucked and can think of many that are worse than being an airline pilot.

Itsajob

I was on one of your jumpseats recently and a check airman was telling me about the low quality pilot applicants that you guys are getting now. He was complaining about pilots having to repeat multiple sims (no one fails AQP, you just do it over) and not being fired after months in the program due to multiple unsatisfactory training sessions and then requiring excessive IOE. He said that needing 100 hours was common. Was he bitter and blowing smoke or is there really a problem? The crews that I have seen in the jumpseat have been fine and I find it hard to believe that any pilot who fails multiple sims would still be employed after just a couple failures. Needing 100 hours is also crazy.