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You mean the end number will be 101 on property? With the 80 NEOs, 19 21s and a few more 20s coming , that number would mean that we would have to replace every airplane we have already to have 101 on property. Am I missing something? I thought we were going to have more than that

 

Agreed, as I understand it, nowhere has Frontier stated that they intend to return ALL airframes currently on property. Correct me if I off the mark on this, but I understood BB's statement about returning airplanes to include only those airframes who's lease terms were on the expensive side. The 4 320's we recently added from Monarch, for example, would stay. In fact, I understood that not all, but most, of the current 320's would be staying, at least initially.

Depending on who you hear from during recurrent, you could hear a final "right sized" fleet number between 150-200 airplanes, eventually.

That being said, if Frontier's biggest obstacle right now is getting airplanes and training pilots to fill the seats at a pace to keep up with Indigo's aggressive growth plans, it's hard to imagine returning airframes just because a newer one arrived (unless returning said airframe terminates an unfavorable lease.)

But all I do is dangle the Dunlop's. I'm usually the last to know any of the cool stuff.

 

We are going to have more. A few A320s might go back but I would put my money on the other 20 staying put; so that is 121 total airframes based upon what they have on backlog RIGHT NOW, but who ever said they are done ordering? The ordering trend has been growing, if you're "in the know" then you could say "that's all for the foreseeable future," but recent history would not suggest that conclusion.

 

I think they will renegotiate the "expensive leases" on some of the 320s, and on others maybe not. So long as they can continue to make money with those airframes, I'd say they stick around. This company is eager for extra airframes with their new seat configuration. On that note, I'm curious if we'll ever see A319 with the new seat config? I've only seen it in the A320s.

 

As of right now:

A/C - Scheduled return date
204 - 08/23/15
918 - 10/15/15
921 - 10/17/15
929 - 12/01/15
905 - 12/15/15
912 - 01/15/16
931 - 02/01/16
908 - 03/01/16
925 - 03/05/16
934 - 04/01/16
928 - 06/02/16
933 - 08/01/16
924 - 10/15/16
906 - 10/16/16
932 - 11/01/16
935 - 01/15/17
208 - 01/17/17
954 - 02/06/17
209 - 03/16/17
210 - 04/21/17
211 - 05/10/17
213 - 05/19/17
214 - 06/08/17
216 - 06/27/17

Beyond that in 2018, AC 902,919,920,922,923,947,948,951,952,953,203,218,21 9 are scheduled to leave. In 2019 we have 926,927,221. In 2020 we have 938,939,223 scheduled.

Interesting to note, AC 910, 941, 943 and 949 do not have scheduled return dates.

Also interesting about 929 which is scheduled to leave 12/01/15, has a cabin reconfiguration scheduled for 9/19/15. So who knows what is going on there. The same goes for several of the 319's scheduled to leave in 2016, many have cabin reconfiguration installation dates just months before their scheduled return.

The first 319 we will see with the new seats is 902, it flies down to TPA on Wednesday for reconfig. The schedule for new seats in the 319's is very aggressive, all will be done by September.

 

The goal is to lower seat-mile cost as much as possible. The 321 with 220+ seats are much cheaper than a 319 with only 138 seats. I believe all the 319s will be given back and nearly all the 320s will stay.

Indigo wants bigger planes with way more seats. The 319s just don't cut it, and I think we will see them all go away. I know that one of the 320s on property is being returned, but the rest should stay. If that holds true, we should see about 125 airplanes on property. I read about the 5 year time frame, but honestly I think it'll take longer than 5 years to get all the NEOs. I was thinking it would take more like 8 years for them all to be delivered. Perhaps the delivery schedule is faster than I think, but to get 101 new airplanes in 5 years seems much too fast to me.

Either way, we are moving to much higher seating capacity, and the 319s are going away in favor of 320s and 21s. Imagining having a 220 seat plane flown by an FO making 37 dollars an hour and a captain making less than 150... Sounds like a mngmt dream

 

Not entirely true. F9 quietly changed the order to 18 319 NEO and 62 320 NEO.

Also, there are 101 aircraft remaining to be delivered NEW from Airbus on the order books. The fleet in 5 years will be bigger than 101 airframes. I believe there are still 2 320s from Monarch left coming this year.

 

I'm with DENpilot on this one. The addition of the 321's, and new seats in all three airplanes help lower a fleet wide CASM. There are still plenty of markets that are profitable in the 319- like Trenton, for example. (Not that TTN alone is a reason to keep the 319's, it's just an example.)

Orders, announcements, etc. all point to a mixed fleet of 19's, 20's, and 21's, with a bias towards the larger frames. Someone smarter than me had to have figured out what the right ratio of 19/20/21's was with those skinny seats to drive fleet CASM down to near 5 cents. We just won't see what that ratio is until after they're all delivered, unfortunately.