While I hate the whole "culture" stuff, this is absolutely spot on.

We can pick on Delta all day, but their employees are proud of the operation and to work there because they're successful and are rewarded for that success. Knowing your hard work literally pays off via big profit sharing checks creates a natural culture of promoting the company values and goals.

How does our culture do anything for us? Whats the incentive? We all pull in the same direction to get flights out on time yet we still lose money? We try to make sure that our flights are catered yet are told to "forget it, just go with what you have" or we want to wait for those connectors that are on a late flight and are already in the terminal running to our last flight of the night but the agent says "Nope, I gotta close out", and if you ignore her you get written up and receive an email from the chief? It's hard to care about culture when it's obvious the company doesn't actually care about the things they tell you to care about.

 

They are suing in Federal court, you know.

Which is (someone correct me if I'm wrong) the strongest action they can lawfully take.

 

You have to think if there wasn’t something to hide then why not share the information under NDA.

 

Exactly. And the fact that ALPA attorneys felt like there was enough there to warrant arbitration tells you it’s a non standard agreement.
Side note: we’ve got actual line pilots (I just flew with one) who think ALPA shouldn’t be doing anything to “upset” this agreement because it’s good for us. I sh!t you not. Rank and file who are ok with management wiping their a$$ with our contract after years of corporate malfeasance. These same guys are ready and willing to take concessions. I wish I was joking. Nice guy, but I had to hide my utter contempt for his views on our career.

 

This sentiment will increase. There will be more pilots who believe concessions will save the airline.

 

not surprising…we just had a commuting JFK FO on the jumpseat that told us “we’ll be fine since we have numbered pilots who have the same skin in the game in top management at LSC.”

we told him that “the numbered pilot in the airline’s FO seat also has $4.5 million dollar ejection handle when they run the company off the end of the runway….how much is yours?”

we didn’t hear another word out of him all the way to Tampa

 

I still believe JB can restructure the debt in Chapter 11, but I find myself more thinking about.... "then what"?

If JB went thru bankruptcy - which is a borderline guarantee if oil doesn't moderate down soon - then they would really just be restructuring the 2024 debt raise considering a lot of debt is tied to aircraft.

But "then what"? The airline comes out the other side with lower costs, probably fewer airplanes, maybe less debt - in exchange for equity - but the same structural issues: No where to grow. In an increasingly segmented industry of those who have scale and those who never will, it is hard to compete. I know people like to hate on this management team, but there are real issues of scale in our business. There are only so many people who make 100K+ in NY/New England/FLL who can get the credit card. At some point the growth in loyalty has to plateau. Then what?

I think the play is merge or die, but I'm becoming evermore pessimistic that there is a merger ahead for this company. I just don't see how even with a Chap 11 they can keep growing the enterprise in a fashion that also allows them to grow earnings.

 

Bingo. Ch11 is helpful, but let’s be clear… it is helpful because that makes us a more attractive merger target (hopefully) without as much debt and non-core assets.

The problem of “then what” has been apparent since we started the NK/JB merger failure. We have nowhere to grow long term. No scale. No dominant position in any key city (maybe FLL changes that equation? I’m neutral on that).

I do think a merger will happen for us, but the longer this drags on the more I wonder if it will be the type of merger we don’t really want. Something like an F9/B6 merger where we shuffle the deck chairs for a few years and are back in the same position.

We still have time, mid-2027 would likely be when we turn into a pumpkin for this administration to oversee the merger. We are along for the ride at this point.

 

Thats scary but I agree with you. United has quietly stepped away if they were ever truly interested and management is going to gather whatever scraps remain. The main issue I see is the Frontier model is only financially viable if the costs are low. Add JetBlues costs, and bad management, and the combined 8% of the domestic market is hardly competitive or viable. For reference, the big 4 are roughly 16-17% of the domestic market with Alaska being the outlier at around 6%. There are suggestions the Spirit customer coming to either airline could raise the percentage somewhat but will it be enough?

 

CH11 doesn't make Jetblue a "more attractive merger target" any more than either of the two Spirit CH11 made it more attractive.

Most of Jetblue's $8.5B in debt is secured, which means its tied to the planes. If Jetblue wants to lower their debt, its going to have to give back a lot of planes. They don't just get to write it off and keep the assets. I can't imagine anyone right now that would want to take on all that debt. Jetblue has the highest debt compared to its market share and RPMs of any other airline.

If no one wanted Spirit and their $2B in debt then I can't imagine anyone wanting to take on Jetblue and its $8.5B in debt (and growing). No chance F9 can borrow enough money to buy B6. They are already have a high risk credit rating and Jetblue's credit rating is deep junk.

No administration is going to block any airline mergers for a while after what happened with Spirit, but until someone tries to buy Jetblue it doesn't matter.