The only thing I would add- Biden and his media buds will not want dismal job and earnings numbers on his watch. I hear even the bluest mayors (lightfoot), and Govs (Fredo Sr.) are preaching the need for opening. Its a Christmas miracle.

 

Not get back to normal but I think VFR will pick up significantly – well before herd immunity. My retiree neighbors are just waiting on the shot before they book to go south, even if it’s late spring. Their adult children are planning to visit this summer but, same thing, holding off buying tickets until it’s clear they’ll have the vaccine. Totally anecdotal I know.

Also, I’d assume a vaccine or health passport is going to become a reality sooner than later and that would take care of the quarantine stuff. Riddle points to an expected significant drop in deaths within a few months…which should further increase public confidence. Course maybe I’m smoking crack…

 

Wait... you take him at his word that the government will make sure things get worse? When did he say they will MAKE SURE things get worse? You sure I'm the one being delusional brotha? My expectation is this summer will be significantly better that last summer and yes because people are being vaccinated, yes because needles in arms. Totally reasonable. Ppl see cases drop plus they can be vaccinated, they will consider traveling again. Back to 2019 levels? No one knows for sure. That's my thought, so dont group me into what you think I'm thinking.
You seem a little more upset that there's a new administration than anything.

 

And to your point again, it does matter DOWN THE LINE if we stick needles in 1 person, 500k, or 1 million a day. It gives a timeline of when herd immunity can POSSIBLY be reached (I say possibly because I can't tell what can happen in the future with different variants).

herd immunity= cases drop = growth in customer's confidence = more folks will travel (assuming restrictions will be lifted due to case drops)

Now if you want to "oh the government will think of others things to keep us on lockdown, you're a [insert insulting word of choice] for thinking its just about covid" or anything of that sort then you or anyone can go down that rat's nest of conspiracy by yourself. I'm merely talking about needling stabbing and how it would logically play out for our industry.

 

I never said recovery was right around the corner, although I do expect it to begin in the coming months for reasons I stated earlier. I don’t think it’s unrealistic to think 60% of 2019 loads this summer and 75% by next December. In that case, does it make sense to furlough in May? That will cost the company a huge chunk of money, and they lose the ability to react quickly to market demand. I’m not saying they won’t do it, but if this TA doesn’t look right, it’s a risk I’m willing to take. I have 25 plus years left in this career, and I’m not going to comprise it by outsourcing our jobs for a 6 month furlough.

Any of the guys who came up through the regionals should know exactly what I’m talking about. Now, if the TA allows us to dig our way out with this AA partnership, is for a short term duration with strong snap back language, then it’s something I can entertain. At this point, I just feel like the Union should be asking for a little bit more in return. Also, I’m not even saying we need to go back to the previous PS formula, but how about they sit down and rework the formula like they assured us they would? Is that asking too much? I don’t think so. These are just my opinions. Everyone is entitled to their own views.

 

Scott L has said full capacity by December (this was projections as of December 2020) and I believe RH said Q1 would be rough but we should start to see significant improvements in Q2. I get that ultimately we’re at the mercy of government restrictions but if we have dropping case counts and increasing vaccinations, do you really think they’re going to keep these restrictions? (Not directed at you Roy) Heck even Cuomo has said it’s time to open up the economy. Orange man is out, mission accomplished I guess.


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So
you all think we will see the language today?

 

Almost no March VILs on the 190. Not very many on the 320.

March isn’t exactly summer
But ya I’m sure they are about to furlough .


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We're flying 256 flights today. Load factor is 55%. We're on government life support. Last year this time we were probably doing 1000 flights at 80%LF.

Look I get it. You want profit sharing in the LOA. Go get it.

 

It ain’t about today. It’s about next month and summer and next christmas. But you don’t understand that I guess


Furlough payback timeframe is 12-18 months.

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