tsquare

Pension deficiencies??? nonononononononono sorry... ain't payin for that...

acl65pilot

No T the cost of making you whole of the cost of what has not been contributed to yours over the last five years.

alfaromeo

AMR has two big problems now. You point to the first, which is they are still paying the exorbitant lease/mortgage payments for their MD-80 fleet which, coupled with the higher fuel burn, makes them uncompetitive. Delta is paying virtually nothing for their MD-80's so they can offset the fuel burn. Capital expenditures like new jets do not affect the profit/loss, but they affect cash flow and eventually AMR will have to borrow a lot of money and pay a lot of interest to buy those 737's. Right now, they are replacing 3 MD-80's with 2 737's, so they need less pilots.

That leads to problem #2. AMR hit their labor groups on pay during their 2002 non-bankruptcy restructuring, but they did not hit productivity. They have been shrinking for a long time and pilots are upset about not upgrading along with about 2,000 pilots on furlough. It's difficult to get industry leading pay without some productivity changes, otherwise they can't compete. How do you increase productivity without exacerbating the shrinking problem they have now? Tough call there. If you don't compete on productivity, Southwest will come take your flying.

Delta needs to have Airbus or Boeing come up with a compelling product to move away from the MD-80's. They either need to re-engine the 737/A320 or come up with a whole new product. They probably need to beat current fuel economy by 10-20% to get in the game. To prep for that eventuality, Delta is building a cash flow stream to pay off debt and then buy jets with little to no borrowing. Everything I have heard from management shows me that they understand there is no way to further erode scope and they really aren't that happy with their current outsourcing scheme. Getting out of this problem will take just as long as it took to get into it. I know that you won't believe that until you see it, since you are on the junior end of the list, but that's what I have seen. Take it for what it's worth, just another useless opinion on these useless webboards.

acl65pilot

Alfa;
I tend to agree with it. The "hope" is that it goes from this team to the next. That is an unknown, so it is appropriate to think and plan for multiple contingencies.

RA stated that we are done financing jets and I do hope that is the case. I am quite impressed with the purchasing of 90's when quite frankly what is out there still costs a ton an is old technology. It is quite wise to wait for the Next Gen stuff. Paying down debt is the best way to have options. The less debt we have the more avenues we can explore.

I always assumed that by 2020 (current plans) we will see DCI flying back to where it was in the early to mid 90's. If this holds true, we will be looking at a pilot group that may just in fact double in size.

I do understand why people are skeptical though. Recent history has been very hard on the industry and its employees.

johnso29

I think Airbus just announced they will re-engine the 320's.

80ktsClamp

Yes. They were subsequently "put on ice."

Labor friendly my butt.

Carl Spackler

I posted this on the L&G thread, but I should have done it here:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OK. The man who wrote a lengthy campaign letter and NEVER ONCE MENTIONED SCOPE has just been elected as ALPA's new President.

To the crowd who want to reform ALPA from within...any new thoughts on the subject? Or are we sticking with the vision?

Carl

NuGuy

Whoa there sparky,

While AMR might have 2,000 on furlough, quite a bit of that was due to their disasterous TWA fiasco. Had everyone on MIL leave or voluntary furlough at DAL decided to come back, I seriously doubt we would have hired, either.

As for not upgrading anyone, I hate to mention it to you, but you need 14-16 years here at the combined DAL on ANY seat to even hold reserve on the DC-9/MD-88. I didn't see whole lot of DC-9/MD-88 activity other than reinstatements, and we still had a pile of people displaced from captain seats.

When all you have to do is take the train in DTW to see large RJs, ALL of which going to former mainline locations, while MD-90s are mysteriously hung up with little or no upgrade activity, and that angst at AMR is going to start to appear elsewhere.

Nu

Bucking Bar

Alpha,

Good post. Thanks.

Amish Pilot

This is true NU, I still remember in basic indoc, Patti C stood in front of the room and told us we could all be Captains in 5 years and the first blue book A320 Capt had just finished training. Kind of like, the pilot shortage they have been predicting for the last 20 years.... Blowing sunshine up you know where. I guess it could have happened if the stars aligned, no strike in 98, no 9/11, no SARS, no bankruptcy. The lesson I/we learned the hard way was pray for the best, but plan for the worst.