On standing bid 16-02 two upgrades were selected that were hired 9/2015.

 

Yup...upgrade DOH bounces around like that.

 

Ok so that attrition represents 1.25% of the pilot group. If we maintain an overall roster of 1200-1500 pilots (that's about where we'll be after the 18th additional EJet arrives), and if we maintain an attrition rate of ~15-20 pilots/month, the math perfectly supports my assertion that a new hire FO with zero 121 time is looking at a 40-45% bump in FO seniority over a three year period, and a 1-2 year wait for upgrade after that.

Assuming that most of the people above them will be hitting 1,000 hours 121 time over that three year period as an FO, and subtracting off the lifer FOs, I'm very confident that unless there is a significant uptick in attrition (as a fraction of the pilot group), my statement holds--a new hire with zero 121 is looking at a 4-5 year upgrade time.

A lot of Houston pilots (particularly us Houston Captains) have developed a very skewed perspective on how fast things are moving systemwide, because we're a small base that's still receiving new birds on a regular basis (and because the CRJ guys are essentially ring-fenced off from our operation by the current contract).

1.25% global average attrition looks and "feels" like a lot more movement to an IAH CA or FO than it does to an IAD CA or FO--just saying. You have to look at the math to really understand what a new hire can actually expect in progression.

 

1.25% attrition from the Captain ranks between January 1st and now. Until I see that number climbing, I will be in a "lost decade" mindset.

 

The number has to climb. It's science.

 

So, a potential new hire should give up ~5-15k in signing bonus and ~15-28k more per year salary for 2-5 years as an FO (with equalizing upgrade times at all regionals), because of your unfounded assertion that "the number has to climb."

Sounds more like astrology than science to me.

 

I think he meant that with no real reason to come here, the attrition is going to increase. It's still no reason to come here on a gamble that you'll upgrade in slightly less time than somewhere that has an acceptable contract.

 

It's an Anchorman quote. Maybe it's before your time...forgot you were so young. But, just for kicks, mark the post and check back at years 1-5 on Feb 14th and we can go over actual attrition stats. Just because I didn't show the math in my post doesn't mean it's unfounded. And equalizing upgrade times at all regionals? Ha. Tell that to the prior SKW/XJT/RAH/9E/GoJet/Wisky guys who just started here.

 

Based on posts I read in this thread, those must be some really dumb pilots, leaving those places to go fly for Mesa. There is nothing to be offered at Mesa other than low pay, right?

 

Bob, with all due respect, you just kind of lurk around here and lob second or third hand information into conversations that you really don't know much about. Your last comment really highlights that fact.

Everyone has different circumstances and goals, and there is no one size fits all approach to working for the regionals. Yes, much has changed in the past 8-9 months, but before that making a move from one of the airlines listed above to Mesa wasn't a bad deal. Doing so today may not be as great, but it's none of my business. To each his own.