Depends on how quick they add captains. 1/month increase for every net 62 captain increase.


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And the increase above 5 won't start until after 1 Jan. they will take a "snapshot" of the number of CA on the books that day. The net 62 is in addition to whatever that number is.

Wasn't sure if those details were out there yet.

 

Yes thank you


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thread is freaking me out tonight. its way too civil.

people are being nice to each other, listening to actual questions. answering them.


freakin' weird.

 

Every airline can only do what they feel is best for them.

 

So...
Next year lets say you have 500CAs (just to say a number)...

60 of those will flow. That means that by the end of 2016 without CA attrition PSA have to upgrade at least 122 CAs to be at 6 a month. (562)

If is 7, then 196 upgrades (counting the extra 12 for the year). For 8 = 270 upgrades.

Those are pretty hard to stay at, specially with the shortage of pilots in the industry.

 

pretty much you are right. i figured out for myself in the 420s that worst case is 4 years best (not going to happen)2 and some change.

i'll prob end up at united or delta or fedex long before then...just my guess.

 

The number can change monthly. So right when we hit that net 62 we go up the next month on specific day if I recall correctly. It's not a yearly determination on whether the number increases.


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Yes correct. But even if the flow was working at max capacity and flowing 8 per month, its still nothing really exciting. At max capacity pilot 1200 is still 12 years out from flowing and by that time all the fuss will be over anyway. People are not and should not come here for a flow. Right now the big draw is quick upgrade. There is still roughly 70 airplanes to be delivered at 2-3 per month. That's the draw. Once the quick upgrade goes away, a new regional airline will take center stage as the place to be. But for now, it seems clear that quick upgrade still remains the #1 pilot priority. It's what has given PSA over the last year the ability to recruit 30 new hires every two weeks.

No matter who you are or how long you have been at your regional, if you are still there in 5 years, you have probably done something wrong. The majority of the AA wholly owned pilots at PSA or Envoy should be trying to move on to an LCC or other Major/Legacy if they are still there in 5 years.

The "pilot shortage" boat will be leaving in the next few years, you need to be on it.

 

ENY
1984 total pilots
~300 who will retire here
~1650 who could flow
attrition over 6 years to other carriers, estimate 300 easy (could be much more)
So, we need to flow 1350 over 6 years for a new hire today to go to AA
50% flow (essentially) to 10-2011 DOH (majority of our list) with less than 300 on list after that. After that they flow at 35% of each class, no fewer than 15 each month.
600-800 projected new hires at AA next year
300 ENY Pilots to flow
Retirements at AA pick up starting this year

Do the math at roughly 300 a year flowing to AA

Somebody getting hired at Envoy today will have the entire list dumping out above them very swiftly now that the hiring really begins to take off.
Look at the hiring this year from other major carriers.
It's starting !!

2,879 Pilots hired THIS year at real jobs.

Alaska Airlines
Hired 20 pilots in September and 215 year-to-date. Verified by FAPA on 10 OCT 2015
American Airlines
Will continue to hire into 2015. Hired 254 year-to-date. Verified by FAPA on 21 OCT 2015
Delta Air Lines
Hired 22 pilots in September and 813 year-to-date. Verified by FAPA on 19 OCT 2015
FedEx
Hired 12 pilots in September and 99 year-to-date. Verified by FAPA on 19 OCT 2015
JetBlue
Hired 5 pilots in September and 193 year-to-date. Verified by FAPA on 10 OCT 2015
Southwest Airlines
Hired approximately 174 year-to-date. Expects to hire 348 during 2015. Verified by FAPA on 21 OCT 2015
Spirit Airlines
Hired 28 pilots in September and 226 year-to-date. Verified by FAPA on 10 OCT 2015
United Airlines
Hired 66 pilots in September and646 year-to-date. Verified by FAPA on 19 OCT 2015
UPS
Hired 7 pilots in September and 85 year-to-date. Sending pilot recruiters to FAPA.aero Pilot Career Conference & Job Fair in Orlando on November 20th. Verified by FAPA on 21 OCT 2015