Toss in a little attrition to other airlines as well, so let's say 2019 is around 500-520ish. Don't have the seniority list in front of me but I'd say those are the 2013 to early 2014 guys. Someone with the list can give a more accurate answer, but figured I'd give a quick estimate for you till then.

 

Edit: Nevermind....

 

'07, 9, 12, 14

 

Sublime...with your numbers, a person at 440 right now is a Feb 14 hire. A 500 guy would sit around march of 14.

 

140: Apr '07 9.5 years at company
240: Nov '09 9 years
340: May '12 6.5 years
440: Feb '14 5.8 years

Continuing:
540 (End of 2020) May '14 6.5 years
640 (End of 2021) Aug '14 7.5 years

Of course this is not including attrition but going off just the flow the average years at the company will start to increase after 2019 since a considerable amount of hiring started after seniorty ~350.

 

Well for rough math it's pretty accurate.
If you include 50% attrition with 5 flowing every month the numbers change quite a bit ..We have about 50%
attrition now with 4 per month leaving
under the current SSP...So for example
your end of 2018 will be 500-600 .With
no attrition your spot on..

 

Thanks. So the other variables to toss in are senior guys changing their mind, holding back until the end of the year, and the flow not increasing to at the rate you guys hope for. Then of course there is attrition to elsewhere. How many on the seniority list right now?

 

About 1200. Comparing the 3 WO flows is beyond pointless in my opinion. Right now they are where they each need to be to get rid of senior guys and staff the airlines accordingly. Once this is done I see them being pretty much the same across the board. That way they keep the 3 pretty equal and are about to staff about the same. My opinion is this will happen unless one airline needs more staffing. Then if bonuses, etc aren't offered they will adjust the flow accordingly to make it "appeal" to new hires. Like they are doing right now with envoy and PSA. We can all be honest here, envoy new hires hired today aren't flowing in 6 years, but it looks good to throw out "projections" that suggest that. Just like PSA advertising the flow doubles looks better than saying what is really happening with it. We've been here long enough to recognize how AAG likes to play.

 

Some will change their minds but most
of the senior guys had job offers under
the SSP.So yes it's a variable like the
other stuff you listed but not s big one.

 

What is the ratio/timeline of it changing from 5 to 8 per month?