I don't think that is even remotely accurate. The only people who were thinking that way were the 19-25 year old crowd who came in at the beginning of this hiring wave, and that is all they have seen at Mesaba. Those of us who have been here for several contract negotiations, furloughs, bankruptcys's etc know that the truth is exactly opposite of what you are saying. If this was your first airline, and your head is fully buried in the sand that may have been your view of our status, but if your were paying attention to the industy or the history of Mesaba you would have known better. Prior to the latest hiring spree we had about 1100 pilots, went down to them mid 400's and "grew" back to a little over 1100. Growth..........not really..... RECOVERY. We are finally back to where we used to be. We had at one point 76 saabs and 36 avros. 112 airframes. We now have 49 Saabs, 36 CRJ900's and 17 CRJ200's. 102 airframes. (5 more 900's coming for the moment so MAYBE 107 airframes). You do the math about our supposed "growth".

I think the growth or recovery, whatever you want to call it, is done at XJ. I would be willing that they could begin shrinking a bit in the near future. I think the 200s will be gone all together but more 900s will be going to EV instead of XJ. A fleet of 10 900s seems awful small especially with the size of ATL. Its too bad for XJ but I think their run or growth may be turning to the opposite.

The 10 CRJ900s going to ASA will be based out of SLC, not ATL. Pinnacle has CRJ900s based out of ATL. CRJ200s will most likely be transferred back to Pinnacle but contractually that requires Mesaba to receive CRJ900s in return. Whether XJ will grow further or not is anybody's guess at this point and I certainly do not think you have the crystal ball to predict one way or the other.

For ASA to receive more CRJ900s in addition to the 10 mentioned, ASA would have to give up even more CRJ200s.

XJ already has 1 CRJ900 sim and 1 CRJ200 sim that can be easily converted to a CRJ900 sim. In 2009, XJ will receive another CRJ900 sim in MSP. XJ is not in the business of training other airline pilots. XJ already has 36 CRJ900 plus the 5 additional CRJ900s coming between Feb and March. This makes XJ the largest operator of CRJ900. It would make no business sense to reduce XJ at this point. If reduction is made it will most likely be in the Saabs as XJ has around 47 Saabs.

I suspect, by the time DAL is done figuring out this "right sizing fleet" concept this year, XJ will most likely get more CRJ900 to be flown out of SLC for the western routes.

All the more reason to hold off that victory cigar until you actually start flying revenue on those planes.

Avroman, that's a very good point. You did try to caution everyone to holdoff from celebrating too soon. You've been through it before and hence wiser than most of us.

I love all you predictors. One question for you. Hows are your brokerage account doing?

Oh wait your regional pilots and don't have any money too invest.

I am just curious but where did you hear that? I know a lot of pilots at ASA that would like to get back into the West flying.

Another CRJ 900 sim??? I think you may be confused. There is an EMB sim for compass coming in 09. If you're right that would be a good sign as to our future. The 200 can be converted to a 900 sim. Our current 200's (except for 601 & 602) are just whipshaw tactics against 9E. Once their contract is signed I expect them to go back.

The SAABS are a cash cow with the EAS service. I don't see them going away in the next 6 years. In the mean time hunker down and save up for the tough times.

PS my investments are doing very well thank you. When I transition to a major it will take 4 years before the pay will equal what I make now. And QOL will take even longer. :0

XJ owns simulators? Or does Flight Safety/CAE own them? How does having a simulator nearby guarantee growth?

XJ owns sims. No merely owning sims is not an indication of growth but it is one of many indications that they are gearing up for more.