Thanks for the flight hours NVUS. Where'd you find them?

Just realized those totals are for Skywest,Inc. any chance of breaking out the numbers for Skywest / Expressjet?

 

These are the combined block hours for SkyWest and ExpressJet. What is the breakdown from there? That data isn't readily available. I think you wouldn't be far off by just cutting the number in half. 1.1M or 1.2M block hours for 2014.

 

Got it. Thanks much.

 

The systemwide RSR report has block hour info for SkyWest Airlines... look in your company email. The sky is not falling.

 

Is there a way to pull up historic RSR reports? I've deleted them.

I don't think the sky is falling but I do believe the months of having 14 days off are gone (in the regionals anyway). I think if the attrition rate continues we are going to have difficult time sustaining the current number of pilots on the roster, referral bonus or not.

I would imagine that over the next several months we will see AA/DAL/UAL management put some generous offers out to their pilots for a further relaxation of scope. I hope the mainline guys do not relent. I would also expect the retirement age to be increased to age 67; I don't believe it requires congressional approval to change. Two additional years is a bandaid, but it would provide the RAA with two years of lobbying time to get the ATP "adjusted".

I'm using the math (Total Flight Hours / Total Pilots) as a rough estimate. There has to be enough pilots on the roster to cover the contracted hours. I'm just trying to figure out what that magic number is going to be this year.

I think the number is about 2,750 pilots required to sustain operations at current level. Add a 10% buffer = 3025 pilots.

You are correct. The sky is not falling.....yet.

 

Operations don't feel very sustainable right now, with 3400 pilots. The buffer needs to account for management pilots, pilots in training, ground/sim instructors, sick time, mil leave, FMLA, and vacation. The average pilot as SKW probably takes three weeks/year vacay (some much more, new-hires much less).

I observed mesa lose about 50% of their pilot group in one year...attrition due to other airlines hiring led to junior manning, which led to more attrition which led to across-the-board vacation canx and more junior-manning, which led to even more attrition. Key factor was that, in addition to CA's going to majors, other "good" regionals were hiring mesa FO's.

 

To pick a nit, golden days don't figure into this calculation.

 

I agree 100%. Not sure what the actual buffer should be. 10% seems a little low, but it's just a SWAG.

I "think" the retirement of the Bro (although forecasted for awhile) is an effort to slow the hemorrhage of pilots. Additionally, the rumor I've heard is that we are currently turning down some flying (emphasize rumor) to avoid the predicament RAH found themselves in, having to cancel flights for lack of crews. I understand this is occurring but not at the same rate.

WRT attrition, my seniority number has gone up about 40 spots since the last bid package came out. I would imagine that rate with remain relatively constant or increase over the next several months. Reading the major forums and looking at the hiring threads, there is a lot of movement. Southwest got rid of the type requirement .

In many ways I believe having a lack of pilots is a good thing. It SHOULD stimulate pay increases and competition between companies to attract the talent. However, it also results in a hit to QOL for EVERYONE, not just us poor bastards on reserve.

 

Can you tell me where this is? I don't see anything on SWOL or on sapa site. If this is true it's an absolute ****ing scam. Why anyone would sit back and allow this to happen is beyond me.

 

The 2014 numbers for SkyWest is 1,091,131 so nice job on the estimation. Of course these may not be exact since we estimated on the total block hours when we started flying the E175 for the first couple months.

Looking over the numbers for the past year confirms my feelings. We have so many people in training for 175 and CA upgrades, that we are running the same amount (or more) of block hours with less pilots.

In Feb of 2014 we had 85,571 block hours combined. We had 1,488 Captains bidding and 1389 FO's with 243 CA reserves and 220 FO reserves.

Fast forward a year and we had 92,001 block hours (7% increase) with 1460 Captains bidding (2% decrease), 1295 FO's bidding (7% decrease) with 212 CA reserve (13% decrease) and 162 FO reserve (27% decrease)

This lines up with the fact that we lost 36 FO's in January and February, and have that much or more in training. So I guess if you want to look at the glass half full, we have lots of opportunity for the FO's that want to commute to MSP for the $hittiest lines we have in the system.

I think we will be in better shape when the EMB guys are done with transitions, but we could be in worse shape since we are losing over 40 pilots per month so far this year. In summary, we are all getting bent over the past couple months because we should have hired more people before we started the E175 training. But KB thought that since our attrition was so low when nobody was hiring, that nobody was going to leave. I guess that is why he "retired"