If you look at the MSL there are a few 100000 number guys with CA upgrade dates from 2020. Not sure if its accurate...

 

Those 100k numbers are lances. Our bottom guy is still Grant. With that being said this company will go back up to roughly 9800 pilots (pre-max & pre-covid). There is currently 8953 pre the seniority snap shot on the SWAPA app. Plus then add the 200 rough retirements (I think it’s actually a little more) you have about a minimum of roughly 1000 pilots. Then you add in the bypass factor, guys east of the Mississippi are not going to take west coast bases, you will see a lot of 6-7 year guys holding upgrades. The only zinger that can change all this is the economy. If the some crazy bubble burst or god forbid a terrorist attack well all bets are off. The latest talk from my local chief is that they are looking at FO’s doing training because frankly they are more reliable then a retired older instructor who can just walk away.

 

Any 12 year FO who is currently being forced to be a FO bypassed for a while and then got stuck when the COVID music stopped. Right now, they are essentially making new lances in the next few classes, but after that, it should be all new upgrades.

I think it will take about 4-5 months and then we will be back to a 9-10 year upgrade and trending down.

 

Anybody watch the town hall the other day? Heard a rumor that they discussed hiring and upgrades for 2022 and beyond.

 

I Didn’t personally listen to it but I’ve seen people post in places like the FB page that they are projecting 1400 new hires and 1150 upgrades. We shall see…

 

I’ve posted a couple other places. All time hiring record was 1206 by Delta in 2016. The biggest group for SWA was 898 in 2017.

Not saying 1400, and even higher numbers at other airlines cannot be done. It will require an increased capacity. I would think simulators will be the bottleneck. You can’t just go to Walmart and buy one. It takes time for it to be built and put in service and you have to have room in a building to put it. I am skeptical if they can ramp up that fast.

 

I don’t think hardware is going to be the problem.

 

https://www.walmart.com/ip/Next-Leve...lack/235926274

https://www.walmart.com/ip/Microsoft...-DVD/643786541

 

We have an absurd amount of simulators at SWA with more on the way. I was just answering what was relayed. I think instructors will be the biggest limiting factor at this point if they try for those numbers. I’m not holding my breath though.