Jet blue wants us now
04-15-2022 | 07:14 AM
#351
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: May 2010
Posts: 429
Likes: 0
Sorry, but BS. If we go straight RS you would at most get 330 ahead, and 170 of those were hired before you. At most an extra 160 jump ahead, and for sure some of those are 55+. (math matters)
Assuming the same age distribution for the top 20% (50% retirements in 10 years) as NK, with no merger, you should go from 10% current to 5% at the end.
If we go DOH, you will get about 170 NK pilots ahead. if NONE of those retire (not likely) and half of the JB above retire, you will go from 9% to 5%.
If we go RS, you will stay at 11% RS at day of merger. With 0% growth, half of the JB pilots ahead of you older than you , and EVERY single NK pilot above you younger than you (not remotely likely), you will retire at 8%, a maximum 3% loss vs DOH.
I am at 20% RS now and will retire at 10% RS if we don't merge.
If we go RS, at merger I will stay at 20%, and with 50% retirements will retire at 10%.
If we go DOH I will go from 20% to 38%, and with 50% retirements will retire at 19%, a minimum 9% loss vs RS.
All based on 0% growth, although we have deliveries scheduled for over 10% for the next 3 years (no use looking further), and your own merger proposal shows 3% growth for those years without the merger.
So with DOH my loss is bigger at the end by a decent margin, but it's mostly the first years where I go from senior line holder to commuting to just above reserve, and you will stay in the same spot.
Assuming the same age distribution for the top 20% (50% retirements in 10 years) as NK, with no merger, you should go from 10% current to 5% at the end.
If we go DOH, you will get about 170 NK pilots ahead. if NONE of those retire (not likely) and half of the JB above retire, you will go from 9% to 5%.
If we go RS, you will stay at 11% RS at day of merger. With 0% growth, half of the JB pilots ahead of you older than you , and EVERY single NK pilot above you younger than you (not remotely likely), you will retire at 8%, a maximum 3% loss vs DOH.
I am at 20% RS now and will retire at 10% RS if we don't merge.
If we go RS, at merger I will stay at 20%, and with 50% retirements will retire at 10%.
If we go DOH I will go from 20% to 38%, and with 50% retirements will retire at 19%, a minimum 9% loss vs RS.
All based on 0% growth, although we have deliveries scheduled for over 10% for the next 3 years (no use looking further), and your own merger proposal shows 3% growth for those years without the merger.
So with DOH my loss is bigger at the end by a decent margin, but it's mostly the first years where I go from senior line holder to commuting to just above reserve, and you will stay in the same spot.
04-15-2022 | 07:20 AM
#352
Line holder
Joined: Nov 2013
Posts: 4,179
Likes: 258
From: Aircraft & Seat: old & hard
Ehh, it might be longer, but girth is what matters.
04-15-2022 | 07:51 AM
#353
The REAL Bluedriver
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 6,935
Likes: 0
From: Airbus Capt
Sorry, but BS. If we go straight RS you would at most get 330 ahead, and 170 of those were hired before you. At most an extra 160 jump ahead, and for sure some of those are 55+. (math matters)
Assuming the same age distribution for the top 20% (50% retirements in 10 years) as NK, with no merger, you should go from 10% current to 5% at the end.
If we go DOH, you will get about 170 NK pilots ahead. if NONE of those retire (not likely) and half of the JB above retire, you will go from 9% to 5%.
If we go RS, you will stay at 11% RS at day of merger. With 0% growth, half of the JB pilots ahead of you older than you , and EVERY single NK pilot above you younger than you (not remotely likely), you will retire at 8%, a maximum 3% loss vs DOH.
I am at 20% RS now and will retire at 10% RS if we don't merge.
If we go RS, at merger I will stay at 20%, and with 50% retirements will retire at 10%.
If we go DOH I will go from 20% to 38%, and with 50% retirements will retire at 19%, a minimum 9% loss vs RS.
All based on 0% growth, although we have deliveries scheduled for over 10% for the next 3 years (no use looking further), and your own merger proposal shows 3% growth for those years without the merger.
So with DOH my loss is bigger at the end by a decent margin, but it's mostly the first years where I go from senior line holder to commuting to just above reserve, and you will stay in the same spot.
Assuming the same age distribution for the top 20% (50% retirements in 10 years) as NK, with no merger, you should go from 10% current to 5% at the end.
If we go DOH, you will get about 170 NK pilots ahead. if NONE of those retire (not likely) and half of the JB above retire, you will go from 9% to 5%.
If we go RS, you will stay at 11% RS at day of merger. With 0% growth, half of the JB pilots ahead of you older than you , and EVERY single NK pilot above you younger than you (not remotely likely), you will retire at 8%, a maximum 3% loss vs DOH.
I am at 20% RS now and will retire at 10% RS if we don't merge.
If we go RS, at merger I will stay at 20%, and with 50% retirements will retire at 10%.
If we go DOH I will go from 20% to 38%, and with 50% retirements will retire at 19%, a minimum 9% loss vs RS.
All based on 0% growth, although we have deliveries scheduled for over 10% for the next 3 years (no use looking further), and your own merger proposal shows 3% growth for those years without the merger.
So with DOH my loss is bigger at the end by a decent margin, but it's mostly the first years where I go from senior line holder to commuting to just above reserve, and you will stay in the same spot.
What I don't get, is that most (really all) JB who would clearly benefit from straight DOH on these boards are not trying to sell/push/convince that we use straight DOH. Virtually all of them are saying we should all share some pain and compromise. Yet there is still a persistent group of you guys pushing hard for straight relative seniority, not being willing to compromise or meet in the middle.
And you wonder why you got aggressive pushback on the JB forum?
With some exceptions, JB has a good pilot group. Everytime I've jumpseated on Spirit the crews have been fantastic. I look forward to flying with all of you if this comes to pass.
But neither side should be demanding they get the SLI formula that benefits them the most, without any regard or compromise toward the other group.
04-15-2022 | 07:53 AM
#354
Line holder
Joined: Nov 2013
Posts: 4,179
Likes: 258
From: Aircraft & Seat: old & hard
Where is the math for a 50/50 DOH/RS?
What I don't get, is that most (really all) JB who would clearly benefit from straight DOH on these boards are not trying to sell/push/convince that we use straight DOH. Virtually all of them are saying we should all share some pain and compromise. Yet there is still a persistent group of you guys pushing hard for straight relative seniority, not being willing to compromise or meet in the middle.
And you wonder why you got aggressive pushback on the JB forum?
With some exceptions, JB has a good pilot group. Everytime I've jumpseated on Spirit the crews have been fantastic. I look forward to flying with all of you if this comes to pass.
But neither side should be demanding they get the SLI formula that benefits them the most, without any regard or compromise toward the other group.
What I don't get, is that most (really all) JB who would clearly benefit from straight DOH on these boards are not trying to sell/push/convince that we use straight DOH. Virtually all of them are saying we should all share some pain and compromise. Yet there is still a persistent group of you guys pushing hard for straight relative seniority, not being willing to compromise or meet in the middle.
And you wonder why you got aggressive pushback on the JB forum?
With some exceptions, JB has a good pilot group. Everytime I've jumpseated on Spirit the crews have been fantastic. I look forward to flying with all of you if this comes to pass.
But neither side should be demanding they get the SLI formula that benefits them the most, without any regard or compromise toward the other group.
04-15-2022 | 09:01 AM
#355
Line holder
Joined: Nov 2013
Posts: 4,179
Likes: 258
From: Aircraft & Seat: old & hard
Where is the math for a 50/50 DOH/RS?
What I don't get, is that most (really all) JB who would clearly benefit from straight DOH on these boards are not trying to sell/push/convince that we use straight DOH. Virtually all of them are saying we should all share some pain and compromise. Yet there is still a persistent group of you guys pushing hard for straight relative seniority, not being willing to compromise or meet in the middle.
And you wonder why you got aggressive pushback on the JB forum?
With some exceptions, JB has a good pilot group. Everytime I've jumpseated on Spirit the crews have been fantastic. I look forward to flying with all of you if this comes to pass.
But neither side should be demanding they get the SLI formula that benefits them the most, without any regard or compromise toward the other group.
What I don't get, is that most (really all) JB who would clearly benefit from straight DOH on these boards are not trying to sell/push/convince that we use straight DOH. Virtually all of them are saying we should all share some pain and compromise. Yet there is still a persistent group of you guys pushing hard for straight relative seniority, not being willing to compromise or meet in the middle.
And you wonder why you got aggressive pushback on the JB forum?
With some exceptions, JB has a good pilot group. Everytime I've jumpseated on Spirit the crews have been fantastic. I look forward to flying with all of you if this comes to pass.
But neither side should be demanding they get the SLI formula that benefits them the most, without any regard or compromise toward the other group.
435 - 03 - JB - 10 - 8 - 8
293 - 07 - NK - 10 - 17 - 25
2234 - 13 - JB - 50 - 45 - 40
1472 - 17 - NK - 50 - 57 - 63
Total 7400, every 1% moves you up/down 74 spots.
I have 600 ahead at NK so at 20%, and 200 of those will retire in the next decade, so I will retire at 13% (0 growth) .
For me at 50/50 I would end up at about 2150, if nobody at JB retires I retire at 26%. For me to get back to 13% in 10 years, 1000 out of the 1500 JB pilots ahead of me would have to retire. I know most of those were hired ahead of me, but I don't think 66% off your top 1500 will be gone in a decade.
The JB guy at 20%, goes to 17% with 50/50, so gets 390 NK ahead. 130 of those retire, so in 10 years he will be at 15% before any JB guys retire. If I take the same 66% retirements for JB to get me back, he will retire at 8%.
So depending on how many people at JB retire in the next 10 years, a 20% JB ends up between 15 - 8% seniority, a 20% NK will end up between 26 - 13 %.
Without a seniority list with DOB I cannot forecast how much the 4 year hire difference will make in 20 years or for other percentages on the list, but for the 10 - 20% RS people IMHO 50/50 still slants towards JB.
Straight RS would give an unfair edge to NK (at least at 20%) with Seniority between 18 - 14% for NK and 22 - 16% for JB.
FWIW....
Last edited by symbian simian; 04-15-2022 at 09:46 AM. Reason: adding more numbers
04-15-2022 | 09:24 AM
#356
The REAL Bluedriver
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 6,935
Likes: 0
From: Airbus Capt
Current # - DOH - company - RS% - 50/50% - DOH%
435 - 03 - JB - 10 - 8 - 8
293 - 07 - NK - 10 - 17 - 25
2234 - 13 - JB - 50 - 45 - 40
1472 - 17 - NK - 50 - 57 - 63
Total 7400, every 1% moves you up/down 74 spots.
Without a seniority list with DOB I cannot forecast how much the 4 year hire difference will make in 10 or 20 years, but for the 10% RS people IMHO 50/50 still slants towards JB. I have 600 ahead at NK so at 20%, and 200 of those will retire in the next decade, so I will retire at 13% (0 growth) . For me at 50/50 I would end up at about 2150, to get back to 13% in 10 years, 1000 out of the 1500 JB pilots ahead of me would have to retire. I know most of those were hired ahead of me, but I don't think 66% off your top 1500 will be gone in a decade. FWIW....
435 - 03 - JB - 10 - 8 - 8
293 - 07 - NK - 10 - 17 - 25
2234 - 13 - JB - 50 - 45 - 40
1472 - 17 - NK - 50 - 57 - 63
Total 7400, every 1% moves you up/down 74 spots.
Without a seniority list with DOB I cannot forecast how much the 4 year hire difference will make in 10 or 20 years, but for the 10% RS people IMHO 50/50 still slants towards JB. I have 600 ahead at NK so at 20%, and 200 of those will retire in the next decade, so I will retire at 13% (0 growth) . For me at 50/50 I would end up at about 2150, to get back to 13% in 10 years, 1000 out of the 1500 JB pilots ahead of me would have to retire. I know most of those were hired ahead of me, but I don't think 66% off your top 1500 will be gone in a decade. FWIW....
04-15-2022 | 09:42 AM
#357
Covfefe
Joined: Jun 2015
Posts: 3,001
Likes: 0
B6 age 65 retirements for those wondering
2022 25 remaining
2023 43
2024 68
2025 71
2026 65
2027 111
2028 124
2029 151
2030 135
2031 151
2032 163
2033 195
2034 185
2035 206
2022 25 remaining
2023 43
2024 68
2025 71
2026 65
2027 111
2028 124
2029 151
2030 135
2031 151
2032 163
2033 195
2034 185
2035 206
04-15-2022 | 09:49 AM
#358
Line holder
Joined: Nov 2013
Posts: 4,179
Likes: 258
From: Aircraft & Seat: old & hard
Straight RS would give an unfair edge to NK (at least at 20%) with Seniority between 18 - 14% for NK and 22 - 16% for JB after 10 years, with between 0 - 66% retirements at JB, and the known 30% at NK.
04-15-2022 | 09:50 AM
#359
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Mar 2019
Posts: 155
Likes: 0
From: Barbie Jet Radio Operator
Super false… I drop everything every month during initial open time. Granted I hold weekends off, weekends and holidays are tougher but it’s no “myth”.
04-15-2022 | 09:51 AM
#360
Line holder
Joined: Nov 2013
Posts: 4,179
Likes: 258
From: Aircraft & Seat: old & hard
Appreciate it, but need to go to work, also, I would need the correlated DOH to add to the list....
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