Jet blue wants us now
#364
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Aug 2019
Posts: 1,200
Likes: 0
Sorry, but BS. If we go straight RS you would at most get 330 ahead, and 170 of those were hired before you. At most an extra 160 jump ahead, and for sure some of those are 55+. (math matters)
Assuming the same age distribution for the top 20% (50% retirements in 10 years) as NK, with no merger, you should go from 10% current to 5% at the end.
If we go DOH, you will get about 170 NK pilots ahead. if NONE of those retire (not likely) and half of the JB above retire, you will go from 9% to 5%.
If we go RS, you will stay at 11% RS at day of merger. With 0% growth, half of the JB pilots ahead of you older than you , and EVERY single NK pilot above you younger than you (not remotely likely), you will retire at 8%, a maximum 3% loss vs DOH.
I am at 20% RS now and will retire at 10% RS if we don't merge.
If we go RS, at merger I will stay at 20%, and with 50% retirements will retire at 10%.
If we go DOH I will go from 20% to 38%, and with 50% retirements will retire at 19%, a minimum 9% loss vs RS.
All based on 0% growth, although we have deliveries scheduled for over 10% for the next 3 years (no use looking further), and your own merger proposal shows 3% growth for those years without the merger.
So with DOH my loss is bigger at the end by a decent margin, but it's mostly the first years where I go from senior line holder to commuting to just above reserve, and you will stay in the same spot.
Assuming the same age distribution for the top 20% (50% retirements in 10 years) as NK, with no merger, you should go from 10% current to 5% at the end.
If we go DOH, you will get about 170 NK pilots ahead. if NONE of those retire (not likely) and half of the JB above retire, you will go from 9% to 5%.
If we go RS, you will stay at 11% RS at day of merger. With 0% growth, half of the JB pilots ahead of you older than you , and EVERY single NK pilot above you younger than you (not remotely likely), you will retire at 8%, a maximum 3% loss vs DOH.
I am at 20% RS now and will retire at 10% RS if we don't merge.
If we go RS, at merger I will stay at 20%, and with 50% retirements will retire at 10%.
If we go DOH I will go from 20% to 38%, and with 50% retirements will retire at 19%, a minimum 9% loss vs RS.
All based on 0% growth, although we have deliveries scheduled for over 10% for the next 3 years (no use looking further), and your own merger proposal shows 3% growth for those years without the merger.
So with DOH my loss is bigger at the end by a decent margin, but it's mostly the first years where I go from senior line holder to commuting to just above reserve, and you will stay in the same spot.
#367
That/It/Thang
Joined: Aug 2020
Posts: 3,502
Likes: 368
2 facts everyone needs to grasp and live with
1) Since straight DOH isnt going to be used 100%, the more senior group (B6) will see guys with longer longevity, junior to NK guys with less longevity at Spirit
2) Since Rel Seniority isnt going to be used 100%, the more junior group (NK) will see themselves with lower relative seniority than what they had at Spirit before
JBlu guys say "This isnt fair"
NK guys say "This isnt fair"
This method will most likely be a company of DOH and StatCat so the above 1 and 2 will be true, but not as drastic as if either method was used solely. This merger might not even happen, the fact guys are upset they won't retire #1 is funny. If anyone starts at an airline and thinks their seniority will hold the course of a career (especially someone hired that young) its funny and not realistic.
1) Since straight DOH isnt going to be used 100%, the more senior group (B6) will see guys with longer longevity, junior to NK guys with less longevity at Spirit
2) Since Rel Seniority isnt going to be used 100%, the more junior group (NK) will see themselves with lower relative seniority than what they had at Spirit before
JBlu guys say "This isnt fair"
NK guys say "This isnt fair"
This method will most likely be a company of DOH and StatCat so the above 1 and 2 will be true, but not as drastic as if either method was used solely. This merger might not even happen, the fact guys are upset they won't retire #1 is funny. If anyone starts at an airline and thinks their seniority will hold the course of a career (especially someone hired that young) its funny and not realistic.
#368
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Nov 2005
Posts: 2,712
Likes: 53
2 facts everyone needs to grasp and live with
1) Since straight DOH isnt going to be used 100%, the more senior group (B6) will see guys with longer longevity, junior to NK guys with less longevity at Spirit
2) Since Rel Seniority isnt going to be used 100%, the more junior group (NK) will see themselves with lower relative seniority than what they had at Spirit before
JBlu guys say "This isnt fair"
NK guys say "This isnt fair"
This method will most likely be a company of DOH and StatCat so the above 1 and 2 will be true, but not as drastic as if either method was used solely. This merger might not even happen, the fact guys are upset they won't retire #1 is funny. If anyone starts at an airline and thinks their seniority will hold the course of a career (especially someone hired that young) its funny and not realistic.
1) Since straight DOH isnt going to be used 100%, the more senior group (B6) will see guys with longer longevity, junior to NK guys with less longevity at Spirit
2) Since Rel Seniority isnt going to be used 100%, the more junior group (NK) will see themselves with lower relative seniority than what they had at Spirit before
JBlu guys say "This isnt fair"
NK guys say "This isnt fair"
This method will most likely be a company of DOH and StatCat so the above 1 and 2 will be true, but not as drastic as if either method was used solely. This merger might not even happen, the fact guys are upset they won't retire #1 is funny. If anyone starts at an airline and thinks their seniority will hold the course of a career (especially someone hired that young) its funny and not realistic.
^^^^^
Yep
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#369
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Aug 2019
Posts: 1,200
Likes: 0
I’m sure it’ll end up being a mix of the two so I won’t retire in the top 15 anymore but probably still top 1-3% (hopefully) but mid 30s been here for a little under 8 years. (No exact dates so I don’t put myself). At the regionals for 6 years before that.
#370
Yeah, I'm definitely not going to do a 25-30 year prognosis. If you're younger than 40 and been there for 8 years you should be okay. Having said that, if I was your age I would be on airlineapps instead of the airline pilot central
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