ReadyRsv

Two or three bids like this will see sub 5 year upgrades.

hummingbear

2015 here. Based on retirement projections I hit 10K seniority at 5y6m from hire date. So IF the junior captain reaches 10K, and IF all other factors remain constant, the 5 year captain is not that far from reality. Lots of variables in there, but nice to see it playing out that way, if only in the generics.

Andy

Hopefully we'll continue to see mainline growth. I just pulled up the latest United investor update. http://ir.united.com/~/media/Files/U...update-pdf.pdf

Estimated Q2 ASM growth: 4-5% (1-2% international)
Aircraft deliveries for the rest of 2018:
4 777s
7 787s
3 767s
10 Max 9s

That should be enough new aircraft to generate a couple more decent sized bids.

Based on unfilled vacancies, there should be another 3 newhire classes on top of the one at the beginning of June. Toss in vacancy bids for this year's deliveries and TK should be busy for the rest of this year with both newhires and upgrades.

webecheck

Add in the 100 growth Max’s that start next yr and you’ll see 3-4 yr upgrades. I think the early 2018 new hires will be able to hold Capt after 3 yrs. jmho

Andy

I've looked at this again. It looks like some junior 787 FOs went to LAX, causing a lot of the seniority differential. I expect some who are on today's 787 FO list will change to 777 FO before this bid closes.

horrido27

12155, the bottom guy on the Integrated Seniority List..
10123(ish), where he sits now.

The Bottom Capt on this bid is still a pre merger pilot.

While it's 'great' to talk about 5 year Captains. It's still no where near in sight.
Maybe we can revisit this once we start having post merger pilots being eligible to upgrade, but the reality is.. it's still years away.

* One of the benefits of flying for a carrier that has a LOT of wide body flying is that pilots can sit right seat on a wide body until they feel that they can bid left seat on a narrow body and make more money for just a little more work vs. being bottom Capt on a narrow body, working your butt off for 73(ish) hours of pay.

Every bid that comes out will have some junior guy who jumps at being Captain, but the reality is.. he will be bottom guy for YEARS to come, as those of us wait till we can hold it at 70-80% thereby bypassing reserve~

Motch

PS) Congrats on all the future New Captains~ 130 Captains is a nice bid.

Half wing

LAX 787 FO went really junior in the snapshot. I’m guessing the final will be 1000 #’s more senior in that BES.

Small correction to your earlier post. We already took delivery of 4 of the 7 787’s this year. I agree though things are looking good. If CA bids go another 150 #’s more junior than the snapshot we will have our 5 year upgrades.

Aviatorr

Don’t forget the 25-30 AB coming next year!!

Half wing

10045 holds CA on the snapshot. 10083 would be the first new hire on the merged list in this snapshot (hired 11/2012). I’d say we are closer than “years away”.

horrido27

I believe the first Post Merger New Hire was hired in 2012/2013.. someone else might know for sure.

This bid will not see a Capt Upgrade PMNH. Could there be another bid or two before the summer, maybe (but probably not). Will there be some bids sometime in the summer for Fall/Winter, probably.

My bet would be that you see PMNH getting on the snapshot sometime in 2019.. but not sure it will last for the final award.
Now, if/when the company announces the order for the E2-190/195's.. all bets are off.
THEN you will see PMNH's making Capt on that as almost no Legacy Pilot will (probably) bid that and take a pay cut from WideBody FO on 12th yr pay.

Don't mean to burst anyone's bubble but the reality is-
2 to 3 years ago I had new hire IRO's saying they were told they would be Captains in 2 years! I laughed. Told them I had been here 7 years and didn't think I'd be Capt in 2-3 years.
All it took was SK deferring our 73 orders!
I live local in EWR and can't hold Capt on either the 73 or Airbus here in EWR~ Been here 10 years.

Motch