consider these 2 points:

1. LTD raise to 11k, with some provisions.
2. “pilots must be offered recall prior to any merger announcement.” If we merge we are all better off with our current list...and everyone active. If something were to happen in the spring and there are 2850 plus on the street that will directly impact the bottom 2/3rds...ask any legacy UAL guy how the merger integration went for the folks on furlough. This, in my opinion is the reason for the bottom half of the list to pay attention. Vote however you decide, but understand there are ramifications to both yes and no.

 

If this thing isn’t trending in the right direction in 8 months, then we furlough, then snap back, and then bankruptcy. It appears to me UA and the Union came up with a plan to keep pilots on property until summer, hoping travel demand will increase dramatically after a vaccine, hence the snap-back provisions. If demand remains low (500k yesterday), most of us are screwed anyway. I’ll continue to study the TA, and come here to read about what you guys think. Undecided...

 

2 furloughs under my belt, thrown to the wolves and felt pretty abandoned by our union, so if there is a chance that all the friends I helped get hired here in the last couple years get a “choice”, something is better than nothing for my fellow United pilots.

When I came off my second furlough, I wasn’t really interested in racking up hours as a 14 year veteran pretty close to still being a probationary pilot....yeah,, so for my first 4 years back, I only averaged 33hrs/month...so 50-60 hrs a month doesn’t sound bad at all. Less total pay, sure, but if I have learned anything, it is this...create multiple cash flow streams and don’t ever depend on the airlines to meet all of your needs...stocks, rental homes, a side business...more time to develop your million dollar idea or have more quality time...looking forward to some international travel once things open up...oh yeah, and I grabbed a $100k out of my United 401k, thank you CARES Act and get to invest it somewhere else.

 

I do not disagree. Just pointing out that we are at 40% of last year’s block hours and therefore the pay cuts are waaay deeper than the 10% you were peddling. More like 14/26/50%. But this agreement does spread the pain in a way that honors seniority, keeps peeps on property and mostly in their seats ready to roll IF/WHEN this nightmare scenario ends. I’m impressed. The alternative is more displacements/furloughs....because they are (were) coming.

 

I'm in the middle 2/3 as you described with a displacement award to the 787. Under the LOA, I would be getting 52hrs at roughly $280/hr which equals $14,560 /mo. Without the LOA , and displaced, I would be getting around 75 hrs at roughly $240/ hr which equals $18,000. So under the LOA that's an approximate loss of $3440 per month. Is there somthing I missed in this equation?

 

Not true. LPAs will be 74-82 per current contract with MPG 70/73.

 

You are correct

 

Only it’s for 24 months regardless if they furlough after 8 months or not.

 

Seems like a win/win deal to me. The pilots win in the short term by delaying the furlough’s until June and the company wins in the long term by getting a concessionary contract with the pilots paying for most of the cost of the delayed furlough. Then after June they get their furlough and keep the money from the ALV for 24 months. Then again it could be a lose/lose depending on you’re point of view. Company loses until June. Pilots lose for years. I’m a glass half full guy so lest say win/win!

 

my assumption is that if we are at sub 40% hours next spring/summer (the 52 MPG), everybody at UAL should be making plans outside aviation. and you won’t be at WB pay for long. I’d make your calculations based on NB pay if you think sub 50% block hours are likely next spring.

If we are at 55% which I think is more likely for late spring, you’re at $17,640. Once we hit 57.5%, you’re above your displaced number.

this is my basic premise, that I don’t really understand how people are not acknowledging. If we continue to be on the low end of the mpg table, as many people are using to evaluate their pay if this passes, our airline is in deep deep trouble. So, I guess I don’t understand a scenario where we’re at 50% or less and guys think the airline will keep trucking along with even 8,000 pilots. So, If 5,000+ furloughs happen, game-changer is an understatement. the pay a 2/3rd pilot and anyone under 5,000 system seniority should be evaluating isn’t WB pay, but NB.

again, I urge people to actually go through the motions of looking at what will actually be happening at UAL if we are still experiencing the block hour numbers that people are bandying about when looking at the AIP MPG table