Agreement In Principle
05-24-2022 | 04:44 PM
#542
Line Holder
Joined: Jan 2017
Posts: 638
Likes: 12
I appreciate the idea that we aren’t just voting on section 3. But there’s nothing wrong with having a personal minimum acceptable level of pay despite what else may be in the contract.
For myself that bare minimum has to keep up with inflation. The APC poll I did seemed to favor that. The FOs I have flown with so far have not supported that.
This implies, to me, that a pay cut would be acceptable to these pilots given enough gains in the rest of the contract. Or maybe they just want any raise as soon as possible.
For reference, the pay raise we would need today is around 13% to break even on spending power from 2019 rates.
Plug in your current pay rate here to see what that would be:
https://www.usinflationcalculator.com
For myself that bare minimum has to keep up with inflation. The APC poll I did seemed to favor that. The FOs I have flown with so far have not supported that.
This implies, to me, that a pay cut would be acceptable to these pilots given enough gains in the rest of the contract. Or maybe they just want any raise as soon as possible.
For reference, the pay raise we would need today is around 13% to break even on spending power from 2019 rates.
Plug in your current pay rate here to see what that would be:
https://www.usinflationcalculator.com
If the hourly rate only increased 5%, but some QOL work rule ended up netting me an extra 5 hours of soft pay per month, it’s not really just a 5% raise. Same goes for extra vacation, or sick accrual, or reimbursements. If all those things increase by a small margin each, but overall I’m taking home 20% more money, what do I care if my pay didn’t go up to match inflation?
To be clear: I have no idea if any of that is actually in the AIP. I’m just backing up the “read the whole thing before you judge” camp.
05-24-2022 | 08:08 PM
#543
Line Holder
Joined: Oct 2015
Posts: 846
Likes: 86
Public Maths for Andy
You've taken the pay raise, and then added inflation on top of that? I’ve stretched out the pay raise in my updated example in increments of 4%, 4%, 4%, 3%. 15% cumulative.
You're double counting. Touché
Where does May 2020-May2021 come from? I was just trying to use the most current month YoY data. I’ve updated my new numbers to just include the annual inflation averages. All my data comes from the linked website below.
US Inflation Over Time
You've got $352 in Jan 2019. Good for one year, until Jan 2020. You now need to compute inflation from there. 1.8%
The best I can read the number on post #424 is that it's $403.45 on Jan 2023 (add one year and due for a pay raise in Jan 2024).
How much inflation do you show from Jan 2020 through April 2022? I show 12.07%. I don’t exactly know the correct way to calculate cumulative inflation over a given time. The calculator I used showed cumulative over time as 11.7%.
Inflation Calculator
How much inflation are you computing for April 2022 to Jan 2024? 7.5% and 3% for 2022 and 2023, respectively.
That those two numbers and use $352/hr.
April 2022 to Jan 2024 would have to come in at ~2.9% in order for the leaked numbers to be inflation neutral. We don't know the future inflation numbers but that looks a bit low. 2020's annual inflation rate was 1.4%; 2019 was 2.3%.
You're double counting. Touché
Where does May 2020-May2021 come from? I was just trying to use the most current month YoY data. I’ve updated my new numbers to just include the annual inflation averages. All my data comes from the linked website below.
US Inflation Over Time
You've got $352 in Jan 2019. Good for one year, until Jan 2020. You now need to compute inflation from there. 1.8%
The best I can read the number on post #424 is that it's $403.45 on Jan 2023 (add one year and due for a pay raise in Jan 2024).
How much inflation do you show from Jan 2020 through April 2022? I show 12.07%. I don’t exactly know the correct way to calculate cumulative inflation over a given time. The calculator I used showed cumulative over time as 11.7%.
Inflation Calculator
How much inflation are you computing for April 2022 to Jan 2024? 7.5% and 3% for 2022 and 2023, respectively.
That those two numbers and use $352/hr.
April 2022 to Jan 2024 would have to come in at ~2.9% in order for the leaked numbers to be inflation neutral. We don't know the future inflation numbers but that looks a bit low. 2020's annual inflation rate was 1.4%; 2019 was 2.3%.
Jan 2019 - $352
Jan 2020 - $358.34 (1.8% inflation YoY from 2019)
- $372.66 (4% raise)
Jan 2021 - $377.14 (1.2% inflation YoY from 2020)
- $392.22 (4% raise)
Jan 2022 -$410.65 (4.7% inflation YoY from 2021)
- $427.08 (4% raise)
Jan 2023 -$459.11 (7.5% inflation YoY estimated for 2022 - conservative estimate using lowest YoY value from January 2022)
- $472.88 (3% raise)
Jan 2024 - $487.07 (estimated a conservative 3% inflation for 2023)
- given no pay raise.
Cumulative- 15% raise
I’m not trying to create some kind of wet dream for pay rates here. I’d love to hear some feedback because those numbers seem high. But part of me thinks that’s the insidious nature of inflation.
Inflation only maths
Jan 2019 - $352
Jan 2020 - $358.34 (1.8% inflation YoY from 2019)
Jan 2021 - $362.64 (1.2% inflation YoY from 2020)
Jan 2022 -$379.68 (4.7% inflation YoY from 2021)
Jan 2023 - $408.16 (7.5% inflation YoY from 2022)
***Full disclosure: When I use the Inflation calculator, it shows a cumulative inflation rate of 11.7% from 2020 to April 2022. However, my above numbers arrive at 13.9%. In other words, $15 too high. I don’t know why this is. Basically, the 2023 and 2024 numbers above are likely excessive by around $20 to $25.***
05-24-2022 | 08:30 PM
#544
You look like a nail
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 451
Likes: 0
Council 5 WAS on an island (HNL Council 5). ORD is Council 12 and since I’ve been here, that LEC has been the land of broken toys.
05-24-2022 | 11:47 PM
#545
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Mar 2006
Posts: 5,213
Likes: 14
From: guppy CA
need
***Full disclosure: When I use the Inflation calculator, it shows a cumulative inflation rate of 11.7% from 2020 to April 2022. However, my above numbers arrive at 13.9%. In other words, $15 too high. I don’t know why this is. Basically, the 2023 and 2024 numbers above are likely excessive by around $20 to $25.***
We'd all like a new contract that is well above the inflation rate, but with airlines continuing to post quarterly losses and the Fed needing to do major tightening to get inflation under control, this isn't the best economic environment to negotiate a new contract.
I won't speak for others, but for me, the nonpay portions of the contract are going to be what I look at the closest. My wife and I are in the bottom of the 37% marginal Federal tax bracket so any nonpay enhancements that save me post-tax dollars are worth a lot to me; for each dollar I save, it's worth a bit more than $1.50 in pre-tax wages.
05-25-2022 | 04:33 AM
#546
Banned
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 309
Likes: 0
A large part of that is because you've taken the Jan 2019 pay raise (which should have covered inflation for 2019) and then added 1.8% for Jan 2019 to Jan 2020. I'd consider that to be double counting in 2019.
We'd all like a new contract that is well above the inflation rate, but with airlines continuing to post quarterly losses and the Fed needing to do major tightening to get inflation under control, this isn't the best economic environment to negotiate a new contract.
I won't speak for others, but for me, the nonpay portions of the contract are going to be what I look at the closest. My wife and I are in the bottom of the 37% marginal Federal tax bracket so any nonpay enhancements that save me post-tax dollars are worth a lot to me; for each dollar I save, it's worth a bit more than $1.50 in pre-tax wages.
We'd all like a new contract that is well above the inflation rate, but with airlines continuing to post quarterly losses and the Fed needing to do major tightening to get inflation under control, this isn't the best economic environment to negotiate a new contract.
I won't speak for others, but for me, the nonpay portions of the contract are going to be what I look at the closest. My wife and I are in the bottom of the 37% marginal Federal tax bracket so any nonpay enhancements that save me post-tax dollars are worth a lot to me; for each dollar I save, it's worth a bit more than $1.50 in pre-tax wages.
I’ve heard for over 2 decades now that the company will not give us a contract until they want something. Recent history proves this. Merely weeks ago they walked away from the table. All of a sudden we have an AIP. We have unfilled CA vacancies, instructors quitting, and a training debacle. Obviously the company wants something hence the AIP. Finally, we have some leverage.
Go away with your sky is falling rhetoric. Let management worry about managing the budget…unless you are management.
05-25-2022 | 05:11 AM
#547
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Mar 2006
Posts: 5,213
Likes: 14
From: guppy CA
Todd, is that you? 🤦♂️ are you suggesting we wait until we’re making the largest profits in the history of aviation? Oh wait, we tried that already.
I’ve heard for over 2 decades now that the company will not give us a contract until they want something. Recent history proves this. Merely weeks ago they walked away from the table. All of a sudden we have an AIP. We have unfilled CA vacancies, instructors quitting, and a training debacle. Obviously the company wants something hence the AIP. Finally, we have some leverage.
Go away with your sky is falling rhetoric. Let management worry about managing the budget…unless you are management.
I’ve heard for over 2 decades now that the company will not give us a contract until they want something. Recent history proves this. Merely weeks ago they walked away from the table. All of a sudden we have an AIP. We have unfilled CA vacancies, instructors quitting, and a training debacle. Obviously the company wants something hence the AIP. Finally, we have some leverage.
Go away with your sky is falling rhetoric. Let management worry about managing the budget…unless you are management.
Last edited by Andy; 05-25-2022 at 05:29 AM.
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