Envoy Information
05-16-2015, 07:24 AM
#142
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2013
Posts: 1,054
Originally Posted by Romulus
How many pilots are bailing out of Envoy now? 50 or 60 a month? You're down to two domiciles and headed for being half or a third your largest size. That's gotta hurt, folks.
05-16-2015, 08:01 AM
#144
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2014
Position: Semi-Retired...
Posts: 3,128
Originally Posted by fisherman
It will probably be possible to be on the 175 in 2016, as we are scheduled to be taking deliveries then. But I don't see why it matters which equipment you are flying, since pay is the same regardless of equipment.
It's impossible to accurately say how long the flow would take. Right now, it's a 16 year flow, and American is consistently taking about 20 pilots per month. Theoretically, the wait to flow-through should become quicker, and the optimists among us tend to believe it will. However, as you have stated, if American stops hiring, the flow comes to a screeching halt. It would be nice if it does happen, but most people don't want to wait that long. I wouldn't plan on depending on the flow as any more than a last-ditch backup plan. However, you should be able to apply off the street to any major, including American. Pretty much all Eagle FOs are trying to get to a major or LCC, not waiting for the mythical flow. A lot of Eagle FOs are currently getting hired at places like JetBlue, Frontier, Atlas, etc.
It's impossible to accurately say how long the flow would take. Right now, it's a 16 year flow, and American is consistently taking about 20 pilots per month. Theoretically, the wait to flow-through should become quicker, and the optimists among us tend to believe it will. However, as you have stated, if American stops hiring, the flow comes to a screeching halt. It would be nice if it does happen, but most people don't want to wait that long. I wouldn't plan on depending on the flow as any more than a last-ditch backup plan. However, you should be able to apply off the street to any major, including American. Pretty much all Eagle FOs are trying to get to a major or LCC, not waiting for the mythical flow. A lot of Eagle FOs are currently getting hired at places like JetBlue, Frontier, Atlas, etc.
05-16-2015, 02:21 PM
#148
Banned
Joined APC: Mar 2014
Posts: 787
Originally Posted by Tsuda
Guys flowing to AA are +16 years. I'm an OCT99 hire. I'll flow over earliest JAN16 and quite possibly MAR16.
Look at AA's retirement numbers and tell me if you really think hiring will slow down.
At 30/month and a pilot group of 1500 how long will it take to flow for a new hire? If you prefer we can keep playing history class and talk about the past..in which case we must bring up the 16 year contract which insulated many of us from the ups & downs of the Regional industry.
05-16-2015, 03:18 PM
#150
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2011
Posts: 219
I always like to look at real numbers... So, the most junior flow selected last time was April of '99 hire. That's 16 years to flow. However here are the numbers from the Envoy flow list. Estimating 33 month (flow (~30) + attrition leaving (~3)) we have.
Continuing from there and increasing the number who flow/leave to 40 (15 flow + 25leaving) you hit the following numbers
Wow, I'm even surprised at that!
1999: 158 pilots (4.8 months)
2000: 146 pilots (4.4 months)
2001: 78 pilots (2.4 months)
2002: 0
2003: 0
2004: 103 pilots (3.1 months)
2005: 55 pilots (1.7 months)
2006: 49 pilots (1.5 months)
So in 1.5 years (17.8 months) it will drop from 19 years (2015-1999=19) to 11 years (2017-2006) street to AA through Envoy.2000: 146 pilots (4.4 months)
2001: 78 pilots (2.4 months)
2002: 0
2003: 0
2004: 103 pilots (3.1 months)
2005: 55 pilots (1.7 months)
2006: 49 pilots (1.5 months)
Continuing from there and increasing the number who flow/leave to 40 (15 flow + 25leaving) you hit the following numbers
2007 249 pilots (6.2 months)
2008 159 pilots (4.0 months)
2009 0
2010 123 pilots (3.1 months)
2011 351 pilots (8.8 months)
2012 8 pilots (included in 2013 numbers)
2013 95 pilots (2.6 months)
2014 87 pilots (2.2 months)
2008 159 pilots (4.0 months)
2009 0
2010 123 pilots (3.1 months)
2011 351 pilots (8.8 months)
2012 8 pilots (included in 2013 numbers)
2013 95 pilots (2.6 months)
2014 87 pilots (2.2 months)
So that leaves 2 years and 3 months (26.8 months to flow).
If you are hired off the street today at Envoy, and nothing else changes, you should be able to flow to AA in 3 years and 9 months.Wow, I'm even surprised at that!
Last edited by jdflyer1999; 05-16-2015 at 03:45 PM.
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
