Originally Posted by emb145

If Envoy's flow truly requires ZERO new hires, can you explain that to me? Assuming 300 lifers stay and everybody else flows in 6 years, you are left with 300 captains. How does that staff 108-170 jets?

Originally Posted by eaglefly

Yes, there are that few and a trickle at Envoy. But what's occurring now will pale by comparison in the very near future. The college programs will supply a fraction of pilots needed to enter the regional airline industry in that very near future and there is virtually no one in any other pipelines outside of that. Most seasoned military pilots simply wont come to most regionals as F/O's for the present pay and treatment even with a flow, unless that is the only way to get to ANY of the legacies. One Envoy flight dept. manager's claims of a 2 year upgrade and a 6 year flow to AA can only occur IF a steady supply of new-hires is brought into feed such an engine and that will require upwards of 50 pilots each and every month.

So far, Envoy hasn't even announced an increase in hiring, let alone demonstrated one in progress. The very resource that is the only way they can meet that claim simply doesn't exist and the idea that Envoy or anyone else can poach dying regional carcasses (and perhaps even facilitating their demise) of their pilots collapses the instant Delta and United respond in like kind to any effort by AA to create a regional model designed to raid their pilots. They may try, but that strategy can easily be blunted. I'd bet neither Delta nor United will do that until absolutely necessary though. The flow-through may indeed become a significant vehicle in the future for entry-level pilots to transition to legacies, but if one carrier adopts that straight model and it threatens the other two's operations, they too will have no choice but to match that, essentially making Envoy's or Piedmont's ineffective as most pilots wont defect from wherever they are. If you want to go strictly by "projections" by the two PRESENT players to get only to AA, your best bet is Piedmont whose upgrade and flow to AA are projected to be faster at 18-24 month upgrade and 3-5 year flow to AA.

Will it really be ?

Who knows as just like Envoy's projections, Piedmont's is simply that.....a projection. What appears to be happening is a 'turf war' developing among AA regionals and anything goes in those including fluffy "projections" which are easy to make, but much harder to deliver, especially over time. Neither are supported by any foundation though as both require a fuel that doesn't exist, that being a large influx of street new-hires. Throughout the late 90's for about 10 years until about 2009 or so, Eagle (now Envoy) promised then new-hires they would be at AA in X years and most of those pilots are still at Envoy or at least did NOT flow to AA. Some of those who are here now selling the present promise fell for that one and also are still at Envoy and not surprisingly desperately want out. I suppose if they were to believe the fairy tale told to THEM to get them to Envoy, it would make sense they not only would believe another fairy tale, they would willingly sell it. I understand MANY Envoy pilots aren't buying this schtick, but apparently here on this and other forums, a vocal and concentrated minority have begun a jihad into the sales dept.

My advice is to be an informed and skeptical consumer, especially when dealing with pushy salesman.

Originally Posted by Cujo665

Upgrades are contingent upon new hires. Our flow to AA is not.

Originally Posted by Ar Pilot

So guys could, theoretically, sit on RSV as an FO until they flow to AA?

#TiT

Originally Posted by Cujo665

Upgrades are contingent upon new hires. Our flow to AA is not.

Originally Posted by AllisonRR

Unfortunately yes they could. The only contractual obligation is 40 E-175s. If the company doesn't want us to fly anything more there isn't a reason to hold any flow. As of now the flow is 50% or no less than 20 which the union has grieved as we don't always get 50% but the company thinks they only "have" to pick 20) and the Dec TA modified that provision by saying 50% or no less than 30 when the first E-175 is delivered in November.

The flow is the only reason why we haven't had massive downgrades or furloughs. The reality as long as AA hires we will be OK the retirements support that at least until 2023. The big unknown is fleet sizes at mainline determining the headcount required for the capacity projected but that answer is not going to answered here.

So far the flow works when will stop is anyone's guess.

As long as people don't go to PSA to perpetuate the whipsaw maybe then we can stop the madness the regional industry has been to all of us.

Originally Posted by eaglefly

In both cases then, Envoy shrinks and a shrinking Envoy isn't going to support the flow projections made by Wilson unless the plan is to shrink Envoy out of existence. With the present trickle of new-hires, Envoy can neither support an upgrade mill at 14.7/month for the next 18 months (a fairly slow mill), nor flow 30 pilots/month to AA.

Either Envoy hires upwards of 50 pilots/month to cover 30 flows to AA and outside attrition or Envoy withers on the vine into extinction. Envoy can't flow everyone over to AA as a shrinking airline and still function below a certain number of aircraft. That would mean Envoy eventually shrinks to 40, then 10 then down to a 5 aircraft airline, etc. Considering AA's Airbus delivery deferment announcement, your E-175 options just vaporized. It seems clear that AAG is making its moves without consideration as to your managements claims and there is a clear disconnect between the two. It's understandable your management is desperately trying to paint Envoy with pretty colors to give the impression of viability, but in reality, it appears AAG isn't spending any time at the Envoy gallery admiring the art. The moves AAG is presently making don't support the claims Envoy management is making. I'm sorry. I certainly hope something changes for the sake of those (well, MOST of those) presently there, but so far that has yet to happen.

Originally Posted by AllisonRR

Unfortunately yes they could. The only contractual obligation is 40 E-175s. If the company doesn't want us to fly anything more there isn't a reason to hold any flow. As of now the flow is 50% or no less than 20 which the union has grieved as we don't always get 50% but the company thinks they only "have" to pick 20) and the Dec TA modified that provision by saying 50% or no less than 30 when the first E-175 is delivered in November.

The flow is the only reason why we haven't had massive downgrades or furloughs. The reality as long as AA hires we will be OK the retirements support that at least until 2023. The big unknown is fleet sizes at mainline determining the headcount required for the capacity projected but that answer is not going to answered here.

So far the flow works when will stop is anyone's guess.

As long as people don't go to PSA to perpetuate the whipsaw maybe then we can stop the madness the regional industry has been to all of us.

Originally Posted by Ar Pilot

So guys could, theoretically, sit on RSV as an FO until they flow to AA?

#TiT

Originally Posted by AllisonRR

You still fail to make a coherent argument. If Envoy continues to shrink the need to withhold pilots on the flow is nonexistent. If the airline shrinks to oblivion, so be it. Hopefully then you will stop posting all of your desires for failure and factless remarks. The only reason you made it to AA is because of the "flow" so it worked for you why wouldn't for us? If you don't have anything constructive shut up and move on with your career at AA. After 1000+ negative posts aren't you tired of being wrong? it is time to move on.

Originally Posted by AllisonRR

I'm all about informing people but your bias is so clear that any point you want to make is irrelevant.