It'd be easier to get to that 2.5 and 6 if they flowed an actual 50%, 30 out of 70 in February.

 

Disappointment is setting in at Envoy according to the vibe on EL. A consistant 30/month has been previously claimed and hoped for or 360/year, yet now we're down to "close to 300" which is at least a 20% reduction in the assumed flow rate. That means many of the months this year will be substantially less then 30. The upgrade forecast is still the same requiring upwards of 70% of present F/O's (perhaps 700) to upgrade in an 18 month period which is still a pipe dream.

Things aren't moving any faster then months ago for upgrades and for flows, this latest blast indicates it too will slow from present.

 

Word is they're withholding while overstaffed with zero-time lines. Couple that with continuing to claim an upgrade that can only be described as unrealistic considering the number of F/O's that would have to upgrade in the 18 months past 2016 should be a red flag.

 

2.5 year upgrade and 5-6 year flow is realistic under certain conditions. Unfortunately, I don't see it happening with tricky ricky running the show. You're correct, they are withholding with overstaffed and zero-time lines. If they can't flow 50% in these conditions then I doubt they can flow even the bare minimum in more dire times.

 

Putting the cart before the horse, aren't we?

The flows don't magically disappear off the seniority list just because they have been selected. The lines don't change retroactively. We're overstaffed because they're still here. Don't expect the lines to change until April or May, and even then the things that will disappear are the zero or part time lines, then the values will slowly creep up. This isn't an overnight thing. They pull a few names off the list and you expect instant kittens and rainbows.

Less than 50%? They still have to true up.

Don't ever offer investment advice, your performance estimation and prediction abilities suck.

Edit: And who the hell cares what the Lounge thinks? It's no better than here, and all pilot boards recycle the same lousy rumors and a lot of the same participants, right Thrustlever?

 

The difference between our positions is that mine involve Facts and yours are a product of Spin.

Fact : The latest update indicated that LESS total pilots are NOW projected to flow from the previously assumed consistent 30/month. How can they "true up" if the total number is lower which implies that to do that, they'd have to INCREASE the rate in the future ?

Sorry, spinmeister, but that's too much fuzzy math.

Additionally, EL is as good a litmus of the vibe of Envoy pilots as anything and it appears many of them who previously may have sipped the Kool-Aid are beginning to get indigestion.

Spin : Rationalizing an assumed future reality that is based on altering the facts and then including irrelevant information as a distractor, such as irrelevant individuals and the validity of the stated source of that which provided the facts. I hope sales isn't your full-time day job, because you suck at it.


Facts are facts and the flow will not maintain 30/month for 2016 as per the company source. In fact, if the Letter T pilots come back in any reasonable numbers beyond the least expected scenario, it could stop altogether.

 

You're off to a good start. This is the same issue I stated, but if you want to lay claim to a fact I've already stated be my guest.





Mine or yours?



False. EL is predominantly negative. Posted polls have failed to accurately predict vote results in contractual issues. That's a fact. Rumors are 12 Ga bird shot, if you fire enough rounds you're bound to get a hit once in a while. I'm not good enough to pick the winning argument out of all that spray, I don't have the ego to be always right.



Show me what was altered. Expect turnabout, you reap what you sow.





That's obvious, but as usual you engage in hyperbole. "Stop altogether". Of course it will stop. You act like you're the first to discover that letter T pilots will be returning.

Let's lay out what has been known here for many months:

The number of pilots this year has shifted repeatedly. We expect 300-ish. That is all.

The un-defers are coming back late spring. This has been on the radar for more than a year. The flow will be near or at zero while the un-defers are returning, then the flow will resume, not stop "altogether". This, also, has been known for a long time.

Of course you selectively choose to assume (assumptions are not facts) that the maximum will return to fuel your constant doomsday predictions. Well, them's the breaks if that happens, but it isn't the likely scenario.

Even after all that, they still need to true up.

It's nice you keep reiterating things that have already been discussed, but I think we're good. Let us know when you come up with something original.

 

I'm not sure who that was directed at, but are you honestly going to sit here and defend managements decision to meter below 50%? You do realize that we are VERY overstaffed right now correct? Just take a look at the DFW reserve list, or all the zero time lines.

If this is how management is going to handle the flow moving forward, then be prepared for pain. They're metering now? Just wait until we are even marginally understaffed.

Btw in regards to your snide investment comment, I just sold all my shares of Facebook for a nice 80% return, thank you very much.

 

His job is to Sell and defend, which has been obvious from the beginning. You'll notice he talks about "we" when discussing Envoy. He's spinning the latest bad news (reduced flow via metering while overstaffed) like a top, but failing miserably and I think he's in denial of what the general vibe is among most line pilots, more of whom seem to be unable to avoid the realistic conclusions of the latest facts.

 

Are people really crying for 5 flow? At the end of they year they have to make up to get the 50%. So it doesn't matter 5 now or 5 later.

Take it easy guys, things will continue to move, but it's not instantly.