To clarify this - you take no vacation days with you when you transfer to AA. If you haven't used your vacation in the year you transfer, too bad. It's gone. The 824 do carry years of service over for AA vacation accrual, but you start at zero upon arrival. No vacation there, either.

 

How did that one guy get a 17% on the private pilot airship?!? Did he just pick randomly and have even worse luck than statistically expected? (Sorry, this isn't related to Envoy but that's hilarious)

 

I'm really interested in Envoy and I think the five year flow will work however I do have some questions. What if Envoy cannot hire enough pilots? What will prevent AA from slowing down the flow through? I understand that there are a certain number of pilots that legally have to go every month but that is only for three of the four flow groups. The last group (After DOS) has no minimum amount that legally has to flow every single month. So isn't there quite a possibility that if Envoy couldn't hire enough pilots that AA could REALLY slow the amount that flows in the After DOS group?

 

The after DOS group is 5 pilots and then 1 pilot for every 125 pilots above 480 or 25% of the AA classes. It holds as much water as the other groups after the 824. The 824 group people are much more confident that they won't slow the flow. But I think cautious optimism is a good approach to this situation.

 

Well, lets see... At the beginning of this year, envoy wasn't hiring enough pilots so they instituted an FO Retention Bonus Program and Improved the New Hire Bonuses. They still were not hiring enough pilots, yet continued to flow, even this summer when they have to so they have again increased pilot compensation to meet their need. Now, is it logical to think that if they continue to not hire enough pilot that they will A) continue the established course increasing compensation and incentives to attract the needed pilots or B) completely reverse course on established solutions to the staffing problem and do the one thing that would instantly make staffing even worse?

Seriously guys, if you are not smart enough to figure this stuff out, please apply at Mesa.

 

It's the lesser of one or the other, correct? Which means that if AA hires 1,000 pilots in a calendar year, Envoy gets the lesser of 25% of the training slots (250) or five new hire training slots increased by one for every 125 pilots above 480 multiplied by the number of calendar months in a year (192). So it seems fairly easy to see that due to the large amount of hiring AA is doing now and will be doing in the future, the first option probably won't happen and it will more than likely always be the second option which will be really small number compared to the first option. Plus there is no minimum number of pilots that AA must take per month. So the first three flow groups will have no problem flowing in their estimated dates if pilots continually come to Envoy however it appears that anybody hired after 12/23/14 might have a harder time making the five year flow. Does that seem accurate?

 

Well then go fill out the application because you still don't seem to get it.

 

It's not the lesser of the 2. It's 25% or the minimum number of pilots specified by that 1 for every 125 over section, as the "metered" rate. So if they are short staffed they will meter the flow to the minimum as they have beenn doing for the past few years, but If they have applicants knocking down the door then 25% of AA classes. And yes it slows down after the DOS group, but those getting in early won't see much slowdown. And who knows where the airline industry will even be in 5 to 7 years. Massive hiring at majors could pull you out of the flow anyway.

 

So, if Envoy has to park planes because they can't get enough pilots and the airline is in the After DOS group then they have to meter the flow. And parking planes means less pilots on the seniority list which means less pilots above the base of 480 which ultimately ends up meaning a very small flow through rate (less than 200/year). That means the five year flow isn't a five year flow for the After DOS group. This is all based on the assumption that Envoy has a difficult time obtaining pilots, which will probably be the case.

You are definitely right in that this industry might look a little bit different in 5-7 years. Hopefully we don't have to use the flow and we can get hired at a legacy OTS.

 

Yes if we are short staffed and having to park airplanes then they will meter the flow....

That's the whole point of offering nearly 60k to new hires. To bring them in. If that doesn't work I'm sure other initiatives will be taken, airplanes flying means money coming in so AAG has reasons to offer these incentives to new hires.

I'm betting the shrinking is done and we get more new hires than we have been able to for the last couple of years.