Yeah, it looks like Piedmont is getting bigger and Envoy is getting smaller to me.

 

Envoy will definitely be smaller. They may be able to replace some of the 145s, but likely not all. And that doesn’t take into account the 140/145s that have already been parked or transferred.

Getting rid of the 145s will make the operation a little more efficient, but losing overall hours and lines is rarely a good thing.

 

maybe they will slow hiring, so less bonus to pay out. Focus on Direct entry captains.. interesting turn of events.

 

Perhaps I'm too new to make sense of it. Seems like Piedmont staying 145 and Envoy dropping to 175 only has benefits and then focus on flying where it makes sense. AAG doesn't care which WO brings in the loads do they? If Piedmont focuses on the really small feeds and Envoy is more of a mainline "lite" version seems like a decent model. The PAX experience in a 175 class bird is pretty darn good. I'd argue more comfortable than middle seat in a 319 any day. We are doing a bunch of flying out of AUS which I would say is a higher expectation crowd of customers.

Now that hopefully we have reduced the pilot departures to BlueIt and Frontier, we can perhaps have enough new hires to exceed the outflow to AA and other mainlines. We could grow again and hopefully get back some CRJ700/900 routes we had to give up due to staffing.

Has ALPA released July numbers for hires vs departures yet?

Newbie optimism no doubt, but I'm okay with that. You should have seen this sh!t show that was my previous IT employer, talk about toxic AF culture! This is a cake walk in comparison.

 

The 145 doesn’t need a one-for-one replacement when it’s being flown to huge cities like MSP DTW and YYZ. Upguaging across the board needs to happen and will with more 170s.

CRJ7s replace 145s, E-Jets replace CRJ7s, mainline replaces E-Jets, everyone wins.

 

There may be up gauging, but the 145s (and 50 seat planes in general) typically aren’t flown to markets for increased frequency. They are flown to smaller markets. Markets that won’t support up gauging in terms of demand and or infrastructure.

And my point stands that there are no viable options for a 50 seat aircraft. The CRJ-550 is an aircraft put in very niche routes that can command the premium seats with a slightly increased frequency and lower capacity to make them economically viable. Though curious to see how that is works out with current oil prices.

 

This assumes envoy needs a replacement for the 145 though. Why doesn’t American serve the routes envoy does? Because mainline jets would prove to be not profitable so they have a regional that has smaller jets serve those route. American is simply moving around their assets so Piedmont takes the 145s and will likely gain routes the 145 serves while envoy gains more 170/175 and will lose markets and routes once served by the 145 but may gain more markets the 170 can serve. In my mind it makes the operations more efficient with each airline focusing and operating a single line of equipment.

 

A lot of Piedmonts shorter routes are being replaced by bus service. As far as a 145 replacement, Piedmont management is very excited about embraer’s next gen prop. Mitsubishi has also expressed interest in restarting the CRJ line to produce 550s but the jury is still out on those (Kirby loves them for first class revenue but wants scope relief to fly them full on bad weather days). Either could be a viable replacement, but would require significant cap ex by AA. Every place I’ve flown in with a 145 could support a 175 or a 900 with the repainting of some lines and different GSE, so much will be scope vs demand driven. The 145s could probably be limped along for another 10 years if AA wanted to pay for more maintenance on them.

Isom just made the cost of RJ lift unpalatable to United and Delta so it’ll be interesting to see what AA decides their cheapest option overall will be. RJ lift is extremely important to AAs flight revenue, so they’ll have to do something.

 

Any idea what is the catalyst for todays email? Are there underlying things happening that makes this relevant or just a friendly reminder of threats out there to be aware of?

 

*laughs in scheduled 10 hour overnights in XNA*