What's the Latest at ASA/Expressjet?
10-15-2012 | 08:05 AM
#1021
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Joined: Oct 2008
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I feel like the hiring and upgrade problems go deeper then what you think. I know it's probably ridiculous but I honestly feel some of the ASA schedules are designed to promote attrition.
The epidemic at ASA is very troubling. I don't think there is any other regional with the ammount of pilot longevity that we have. There is a outright surprising ammount of captains on the ASA side that have zero intention of leaving. I call it ultra-lifer-ism... There are so many guys in their late 30 or early 40's that in two or three more years will top the pay scales. They don't plan on leaving and simply will not entertain the idea.
Conversely, The FO side at ASA has seen 4 times as much attrition as the captains side has seen. The very junior end of the captains side will move on but it is likely that in the next few years FO attrition will outpace captains in a serious manner (thanks for the ATP asa). Eventually in the next couple of years asa/xjt will have a very very very hard time finding pilots. As a way to attract people to an airline with 7-8 year upgrades they are offering a two year agreement with an interview at Delta. I think they eventually expect no serious upgrades, they will shrink in to what is left of the regional flying and just be a mostly FO feeder airline to mainlines.
The epidemic at ASA is very troubling. I don't think there is any other regional with the ammount of pilot longevity that we have. There is a outright surprising ammount of captains on the ASA side that have zero intention of leaving. I call it ultra-lifer-ism... There are so many guys in their late 30 or early 40's that in two or three more years will top the pay scales. They don't plan on leaving and simply will not entertain the idea.
Conversely, The FO side at ASA has seen 4 times as much attrition as the captains side has seen. The very junior end of the captains side will move on but it is likely that in the next few years FO attrition will outpace captains in a serious manner (thanks for the ATP asa). Eventually in the next couple of years asa/xjt will have a very very very hard time finding pilots. As a way to attract people to an airline with 7-8 year upgrades they are offering a two year agreement with an interview at Delta. I think they eventually expect no serious upgrades, they will shrink in to what is left of the regional flying and just be a mostly FO feeder airline to mainlines.
10-15-2012 | 09:51 AM
#1023
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Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 6,144
Likes: 204
Originally Posted by afterburn81:1277171
Sometimes the best view is on the outside looking in. I took sometime off from flying and observed the industry when I wasn't involved. It really put things into perspective. We really do look like a bunch of goons out there. Got no one to blame but ourselves.
10-15-2012 | 09:58 AM
#1024
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Joined: Dec 2007
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Originally Posted by flyingkangaroo:1277235
I believe EFB's should be the last thing anyone cares about at a regional airline. I understand Jepp revisions and a heavy flight case can be miserable but so is flying RJs for subpar wagess and 7 leg days we encounter at ASA. There is a lot of things that are just about out of our controllable reach and EFBs are one of them. If we get them great, it not, carrying on as you know today. I don't mind conversations about what Managament is "brain storming" and we do know it can save them money, but what happened to the bigger things? Did we all just forget about PBS with no 2-3 days, 7 leg days with min rest? How about all the problems with staffing? How about nearly 100 new hire FOs (ASA) with no upgrades? These are the things that make people want to leave, not EFBs.
The epidemic at ASA is very troubling. I don't think there is any other regional with the ammount of pilot longevity that we have. There is a outright surprising ammount of captains on the ASA side that have zero intention of leaving. I call it ultra-lifer-ism... There are so many guys in their late 30 or early 40's that in two or three more years will top the pay scales. They don't plan on leaving and simply will not entertain the idea.
Conversely, The FO side at ASA has seen 4 times as much attrition as the captains side has seen. The very junior end of the captains side will move on but it is likely that in the next few years FO attrition will outpace captains in a serious manner (thanks for the ATP asa). Eventually in the next couple of years asa/xjt will have a very very very hard time finding pilots. As a way to attract people to an airline with 7-8 year upgrades they are offering a two year agreement with an interview at Delta. I think they eventually expect no serious upgrades, they will shrink in to what is left of the regional flying and just be a mostly FO feeder airline to mainlines.
ATL 200 schedules were brutal this past summer but it's gotten better recently with longer legs out to DAL,COU and others in the DTW and CVG system. I just flew a 25 hr credit trip with no more than 4 legs a day. It was fantastic. Combined with cooler weather I'm enjoying the 200 again. 105 credit this month with only one day more than 4 legs all month.
10-15-2012 | 10:28 AM
#1025
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Joined: Dec 2008
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The epidemic is very troubling for all regionals, not just XJT.
ATL 200 schedules were brutal this past summer but it's gotten better recently with longer legs out to DAL,COU and others in the DTW and CVG system. I just flew a 25 hr credit trip with no more than 4 legs a day. It was fantastic. Combined with cooler weather I'm enjoying the 200 again. 105 credit this month with only one day more than 4 legs all month.
ATL 200 schedules were brutal this past summer but it's gotten better recently with longer legs out to DAL,COU and others in the DTW and CVG system. I just flew a 25 hr credit trip with no more than 4 legs a day. It was fantastic. Combined with cooler weather I'm enjoying the 200 again. 105 credit this month with only one day more than 4 legs all month.
As for the "lifers" of our regional industry, I think a lot are really starting to think long and hard about it. Comair was a perfect example of what can happen and I'm sure everyone is well aware of what most are doing. Some retired, yes, others have been found at career fairs and even at the bottom of our list. The "I'll ride it to the end," is fun to say until you realize the end has come and your family is still dependent on you.
With that said, I don't believe SkyWest Inc. is one that will sink quickly. There may be some shrinking, but most of the senior guys will be able to ride it to retirement.
Attrition in the upcoming years will remain slow. Delta has pushed hiring back to late 2013, US Airways has trickle hired, United is looking to open doors with no forecasted amount. These are the companies that will allow FO's to upgrade. Talking to Captains that want to leave are, for the most part, not interested in Spirit, Virgin or any other "mid-way" company. This years trend shows FO's leaving in drones for anything that pays better, however, FO attrition does not allow upgrades.
Overall I would predict that the same time next year, I'll still be a XJT FO, depressing!
10-15-2012 | 11:12 AM
#1026
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 6,144
Likes: 204
Originally Posted by JustAnotherPLT:1277334
The epidemic is very troubling for all regionals, not just XJT.
ATL 200 schedules were brutal this past summer but it's gotten better recently with longer legs out to DAL,COU and others in the DTW and CVG system. I just flew a 25 hr credit trip with no more than 4 legs a day. It was fantastic. Combined with cooler weather I'm enjoying the 200 again. 105 credit this month with only one day more than 4 legs all month.
ATL 200 schedules were brutal this past summer but it's gotten better recently with longer legs out to DAL,COU and others in the DTW and CVG system. I just flew a 25 hr credit trip with no more than 4 legs a day. It was fantastic. Combined with cooler weather I'm enjoying the 200 again. 105 credit this month with only one day more than 4 legs all month.
As for the "lifers" of our regional industry, I think a lot are really starting to think long and hard about it. Comair was a perfect example of what can happen and I'm sure everyone is well aware of what most are doing. Some retired, yes, others have been found at career fairs and even at the bottom of our list. The "I'll ride it to the end," is fun to say until you realize the end has come and your family is still dependent on you.
With that said, I don't believe SkyWest Inc. is one that will sink quickly. There may be some shrinking, but most of the senior guys will be able to ride it to retirement.
Attrition in the upcoming years will remain slow. Delta has pushed hiring back to late 2013, US Airways has trickle hired, United is looking to open doors with no forecasted amount. These are the companies that will allow FO's to upgrade. Talking to Captains that want to leave are, for the most part, not interested in Spirit, Virgin or any other "mid-way" company. This years trend shows FO's leaving in drones for anything that pays better, however, FO attrition does not allow upgrades.
Overall I would predict that the same time next year, I'll still be a XJT FO, depressing!
You were spot on with DL's delay on hiring, but alittle pessimistic on UAL and Airways. UAL is retiring around 400 pilots next year, and Airways around 300. That will create a decent amount of movement.
10-16-2012 | 06:06 AM
#1027
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Joined: Apr 2007
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I've never cared about the seat, I just care about $$$ and QOL and I will never have both from ASA (XJT) and rarely even one of the two... need to move on ASAP.
10-16-2012 | 06:24 AM
#1028
On Reserve
Joined: Aug 2010
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UAL still has 1500 on furlough. If half come back that is still two years before the indefinite hiring starts. The guys hired to the CAL side might be sitting on the bottom awhile. Yea or no? I hope I'm missing something.
10-16-2012 | 06:40 AM
#1029
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Joined: Apr 2007
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I would happily sit on the bottom of that list for a while knowing I had a future as opposed to sitting on the top of the FO list topped out on my salary
10-16-2012 | 07:36 AM
#1030
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Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 6,144
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You're correct. I think quite a few of the furloughees are at regionals. When they go back that will create some movement at the regional level. I believe XJT has not only a few UAL furloughees, but also several pilots that were hired but had their class date cancelled. That puts them at the front of the line for UAL hiring
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