How long for a contract?
#1661
Line Holder
Joined: Dec 2023
Posts: 389
Likes: 28
Respectfully, your don't have a clue. They are literally changing the operation as we speak. Some small changes, like seats and connectivity, some large changes, like the entire revenue/ticketing model. Does F9 need a radical leadership overhaul? Yes, but that isn't the point here. F9 realized the a la carte process was not only generating less revenue but it was driving pax away. Instead of relying on 50% of total revenue coming from ancillary fees paid a percentage of the passengers they have pivoted to raising tickets prices a small amount paid by 100% of the pax. It hasn't fully developed yet, and it will take time. One of the largest new revenue streams will come from CC partnerships. Once the passenger base is trained and understands they can get a free checked bag as long as they buy their ticket with a specific CC (and they avoid the ghetto gate agent battle royal, win/win) we can finally become relevant with a better bank and share in some of the CC revenue. That is just one facet/component of the transformation F9 is currently going through. The route structure will also evolve for the better. Instead of reducing stage length intentionally (when you need ancillary rev to survive, you need to fly more shorter legs and turn the ac more often). Some of our most profitable legs are almost 2000nm but F9 was forced to average stage length across the fleet below 900 when we were slaves to the ancillary model.
its a work in progress, but if anyone shows me past margins and claims "they can't afford 35% raises" I'll punch them in face. Do hourly rates go down when fuel prices rise? Do they go up when fuel prices drop? Pilot pay makes up 5-10% casm depending on the airline. At F9 it is a very low single digit percentage. I don't have to work the math for you, but when you increase a SMALLER number by 35-50% it isn't going to move that CASM needle as much. Every airline gapped up during their last section 6, we missed a complete cycle. Frankly a 35% raise isn't going to cut it for me.
F9 wants a 40% cost advantage. F9 runs a stage-length adjusted CASM ex of around 6.4 and delta runs a casm ex of around 14.4. Assuming pilot wages and benefits make up 10% of casm (they don't) but worst cast thats 65 cents today plus another 33 cents with a 50% raise (not going to get a 50% raise, just keeping the math easy) we impact casm by a dollar. With a 7.4 casm we are still 48% lower than dal casm. Voilia, there is your 40% margin, FUPM.
its a work in progress, but if anyone shows me past margins and claims "they can't afford 35% raises" I'll punch them in face. Do hourly rates go down when fuel prices rise? Do they go up when fuel prices drop? Pilot pay makes up 5-10% casm depending on the airline. At F9 it is a very low single digit percentage. I don't have to work the math for you, but when you increase a SMALLER number by 35-50% it isn't going to move that CASM needle as much. Every airline gapped up during their last section 6, we missed a complete cycle. Frankly a 35% raise isn't going to cut it for me.
F9 wants a 40% cost advantage. F9 runs a stage-length adjusted CASM ex of around 6.4 and delta runs a casm ex of around 14.4. Assuming pilot wages and benefits make up 10% of casm (they don't) but worst cast thats 65 cents today plus another 33 cents with a 50% raise (not going to get a 50% raise, just keeping the math easy) we impact casm by a dollar. With a 7.4 casm we are still 48% lower than dal casm. Voilia, there is your 40% margin, FUPM.
Does any of this translate to ditching the out-and-back model? lol, many pilots are hoping yes.
We absolutely DESERVE legacy rates, and before someone tries to point out my above post as saying we don't, I'm not saying that at all. I'm merely saying we should not give up a single work rule for pay. Absolute non-starter. A 35% raise with added work rules is a win, not a loss - but I think we deserve legacy rates, wholeheartedly.
I also think we need massive reserve rules upgrades.
#1662
We really should not be short sighted and look at empty open time today and conclude "well if we don't have plentiful open time today what good is trade/drop/swap?"
Think long term. You don't want to sell these rules for some pot of money, the company would love to do that for a reason. United gave away forcing upgrades on new hires and that's leverage they'll never have again. We absolutely shouldn't give up our QoL rules but instead reinforce them. We need to BUILD on our QoL rules, not trash them. I want legacy rates but I do not see it happening in the 2020s and I think we need to have an honest discussion about that.
I meet a ton of pilots who are here for the work rules, not the rate. In their minds we will never make legacy rates dollar for dollar and they're ok with that. Rates are overrated folks. Rates sell you the QoL gutting. Don't accept abysmal pay - but being within 5-15% with stellar work rules is a win.
Does our current management team think like this? I don't think so, honestly.
I think Frontier will adapt, I just don't trust this management team to be smart about how it does. Scott Kirby is forward thinking. We are totally reactive and never ahead of what is coming and I think that's a clear recipe for mediocre results or worse.
Think long term. You don't want to sell these rules for some pot of money, the company would love to do that for a reason. United gave away forcing upgrades on new hires and that's leverage they'll never have again. We absolutely shouldn't give up our QoL rules but instead reinforce them. We need to BUILD on our QoL rules, not trash them. I want legacy rates but I do not see it happening in the 2020s and I think we need to have an honest discussion about that.
I meet a ton of pilots who are here for the work rules, not the rate. In their minds we will never make legacy rates dollar for dollar and they're ok with that. Rates are overrated folks. Rates sell you the QoL gutting. Don't accept abysmal pay - but being within 5-15% with stellar work rules is a win.
Does our current management team think like this? I don't think so, honestly.
I think Frontier will adapt, I just don't trust this management team to be smart about how it does. Scott Kirby is forward thinking. We are totally reactive and never ahead of what is coming and I think that's a clear recipe for mediocre results or worse.
You can see your way out too. Nothing says we have to settle for a dime less than legacy rates.
1:1 legacy rates + current work rules. There is no compromise. We worked harder. Their discount is the number of pax we fly in a 321 compared to legacies. If they can’t make money they should change their culture to match one that people want. We fly the safest way possible and as efficient as we can with no resources. They can afford the pay with the current QOL items.
#1663
Line Holder
Joined: Nov 2024
Posts: 425
Likes: 78
We really should not be short sighted and look at empty open time today and conclude "well if we don't have plentiful open time today what good is trade/drop/swap?"
Think long term. You don't want to sell these rules for some pot of money, the company would love to do that for a reason. United gave away forcing upgrades on new hires and that's leverage they'll never have again. We absolutely shouldn't give up our QoL rules but instead reinforce them. We need to BUILD on our QoL rules, not trash them. I want legacy rates but I do not see it happening in the 2020s and I think we need to have an honest discussion about that.
I meet a ton of pilots who are here for the work rules, not the rate. In their minds we will never make legacy rates dollar for dollar and they're ok with that. Rates are overrated folks. Rates sell you the QoL gutting. Don't accept abysmal pay - but being within 5-15% with stellar work rules is a win.
Does our current management team think like this? I don't think so, honestly.
I think Frontier will adapt, I just don't trust this management team to be smart about how it does. Scott Kirby is forward thinking. We are totally reactive and never ahead of what is coming and I think that's a clear recipe for mediocre results or worse.
Think long term. You don't want to sell these rules for some pot of money, the company would love to do that for a reason. United gave away forcing upgrades on new hires and that's leverage they'll never have again. We absolutely shouldn't give up our QoL rules but instead reinforce them. We need to BUILD on our QoL rules, not trash them. I want legacy rates but I do not see it happening in the 2020s and I think we need to have an honest discussion about that.
I meet a ton of pilots who are here for the work rules, not the rate. In their minds we will never make legacy rates dollar for dollar and they're ok with that. Rates are overrated folks. Rates sell you the QoL gutting. Don't accept abysmal pay - but being within 5-15% with stellar work rules is a win.
Does our current management team think like this? I don't think so, honestly.
I think Frontier will adapt, I just don't trust this management team to be smart about how it does. Scott Kirby is forward thinking. We are totally reactive and never ahead of what is coming and I think that's a clear recipe for mediocre results or worse.
You just one of these people hoping for a quick pay out on the way out the door? An 11% pay raise to paid your pocketbook waiting for a legacy call?
Theres nothing wrong with you leaving. But, you gotta admit. It’s a little sus.
#1664
Line Holder
Joined: Dec 2023
Posts: 389
Likes: 28
You can see your way out too. Nothing says we have to settle for a dime less than legacy rates.
1:1 legacy rates + current work rules. There is no compromise. We worked harder. Their discount is the number of pax we fly in a 321 compared to legacies. If they can’t make money they should change their culture to match one that people want. We fly the safest way possible and as efficient as we can with no resources. They can afford the pay with the current QOL items.
1:1 legacy rates + current work rules. There is no compromise. We worked harder. Their discount is the number of pax we fly in a 321 compared to legacies. If they can’t make money they should change their culture to match one that people want. We fly the safest way possible and as efficient as we can with no resources. They can afford the pay with the current QOL items.
Not to be rude. But you’ve openly bragged about leaving to a legacy. So why are you suddenly getting on your high horse and lecturing about pay vs QOL in the next couple of years when you have zero desire to stay here?
You just one of these people hoping for a quick pay out on the way out the door? An 11% pay raise to paid your pocketbook waiting for a legacy call?
Theres nothing wrong with you leaving. But, you gotta admit. It’s a little sus.
You just one of these people hoping for a quick pay out on the way out the door? An 11% pay raise to paid your pocketbook waiting for a legacy call?
Theres nothing wrong with you leaving. But, you gotta admit. It’s a little sus.
I'm not sure where in my statement you think I'm arguing for a pay raise so I can dip, lol? I'm arguing for the opposite. It's quite clear a majority of this pilot group wants work rules protected to the max extent possible, I am asking for us to build on that. Whatever this contract amounts to, it is likely to have large say in how I live my life for the indefinite future.
Deserve legacy rates: yes. Obtain them while gutting work rules? Hard pass for me.
There are real consequences to work rule changes. I think we have to be careful not to get hit with loopholes in language for a quick buck.
#1665
Line Holder
Joined: Nov 2024
Posts: 425
Likes: 78
I'm just saying that giving up work rules to get legacy rates would be a massive loss. You don't have to lecture me about the other items, you're preaching to the choir.
I want to make it to a legacy, I have not gone anywhere and likely wont for quite some time.
I'm not sure where in my statement you think I'm arguing for a pay raise so I can dip, lol? I'm arguing for the opposite. It's quite clear a majority of this pilot group wants work rules protected to the max extent possible, I am asking for us to build on that. Whatever this contract amounts to, it is likely to have large say in how I live my life for the indefinite future.
Deserve legacy rates: yes. Obtain them while gutting work rules? Hard pass for me.
There are real consequences to work rule changes. I think we have to be careful not to get hit with loopholes in language for a quick buck.
I want to make it to a legacy, I have not gone anywhere and likely wont for quite some time.
I'm not sure where in my statement you think I'm arguing for a pay raise so I can dip, lol? I'm arguing for the opposite. It's quite clear a majority of this pilot group wants work rules protected to the max extent possible, I am asking for us to build on that. Whatever this contract amounts to, it is likely to have large say in how I live my life for the indefinite future.
Deserve legacy rates: yes. Obtain them while gutting work rules? Hard pass for me.
There are real consequences to work rule changes. I think we have to be careful not to get hit with loopholes in language for a quick buck.
your words not mine.
Great 5-15% of legacy rates. After it takes us another 2-4 years to get them. Sure. Everyone is going to be real happy. /S
Oh. Now you’re going to be here for good? Yeah okay. What changed your mind?
#1666
Line Holder
Joined: Dec 2023
Posts: 389
Likes: 28
”rates are overrated”. “Honest discussion” “within 5-15%”
your words not mine.
Great 5-15% of legacy rates. After it takes us another 2-4 years to get them. Sure. Everyone is going to be real happy. /S
Oh. Now you’re going to be here for good? Yeah okay. What changed your mind?
your words not mine.
Great 5-15% of legacy rates. After it takes us another 2-4 years to get them. Sure. Everyone is going to be real happy. /S
Oh. Now you’re going to be here for good? Yeah okay. What changed your mind?
"within" 5-15% is what I meant, for full clarity. You're not much for nuanced discussion so I think I'll just leave it at what I already said. People obsessing over rates will lead to QoL losses that will be extremely hard to undo.
#1667
Line Holder
Joined: Nov 2024
Posts: 425
Likes: 78
People obsessing over rates is what is gonna lead to a stinker of a CBA. Mark my words.
"within" 5-15% is what I meant, for full clarity. You're not much for nuanced discussion so I think I'll just leave it at what I already said. People obsessing over rates will lead to QoL losses that will be extremely hard to undo.
"within" 5-15% is what I meant, for full clarity. You're not much for nuanced discussion so I think I'll just leave it at what I already said. People obsessing over rates will lead to QoL losses that will be extremely hard to undo.
Really the whole contract is what we should be looking at? No kidding? Is that how this works? You mean it’s not just pay rates vs trade/drop/swap?
Theres other things like LTD, training pay, hotels, commuter rules, overrides, etc. we have to judge all of this in its entirety?
you’re brilliant. Thanks for your service.
edit: btw. Thanks for literally cutting and pasting exactly what I said to dracir a couple of days ago about reserve rules and commuting. Not bad for a guy who doesn’t understand nuance.
#1668
People obsessing over rates is what is gonna lead to a stinker of a CBA. Mark my words.
"within" 5-15% is what I meant, for full clarity. You're not much for nuanced discussion so I think I'll just leave it at what I already said. People obsessing over rates will lead to QoL losses that will be extremely hard to undo.
"within" 5-15% is what I meant, for full clarity. You're not much for nuanced discussion so I think I'll just leave it at what I already said. People obsessing over rates will lead to QoL losses that will be extremely hard to undo.
Why are you so confident in every forum you speak in. On Reddit and on here. You present to a group with a “knowledge” and insult people and firmly believe your position with a level only equal to experts. Why do you feel so strong in your beliefs? Your writing style gives you away in both forums. If APC had downvote options you better you’d be downvoted.
It’s not an obsession over rates. It’s the ALPA creed since origination. Pilot compensation is based on types. We fly 321s we deserve the going rate for 321s. Current value and future value is a calculable rate to determine what the rate should be given the rate of inflation and current purchase power. Our rates should match dollar per dollar and even exceed those rates the legacies hold as they are put into effect years later. Go take an economics course. You’re in Alpa so you should defend the belief of equal pay.
#1669
Line Holder
Joined: Jan 2016
Posts: 498
Likes: 69
Why are you so confident in every forum you speak in. On Reddit and on here. You present to a group with a “knowledge” and insult people and firmly believe your position with a level only equal to experts. Why do you feel so strong in your beliefs? Your writing style gives you away in both forums. If APC had downvote options you better you’d be downvoted.
It’s not an obsession over rates. It’s the ALPA creed since origination. Pilot compensation is based on types. We fly 321s we deserve the going rate for 321s. Current value and future value is a calculable rate to determine what the rate should be given the rate of inflation and current purchase power. Our rates should match dollar per dollar and even exceed those rates the legacies hold as they are put into effect years later. Go take an economics course. You’re in Alpa so you should defend the belief of equal pay.
It’s not an obsession over rates. It’s the ALPA creed since origination. Pilot compensation is based on types. We fly 321s we deserve the going rate for 321s. Current value and future value is a calculable rate to determine what the rate should be given the rate of inflation and current purchase power. Our rates should match dollar per dollar and even exceed those rates the legacies hold as they are put into effect years later. Go take an economics course. You’re in Alpa so you should defend the belief of equal pay.
#1670
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Nov 2012
Posts: 3,749
Likes: 99
From: 1900D CA
Not necessarily disagreeing with you, but the NC did a big survey and from that created a list of priorities. I mostly trust that they will negotiate a deal that is a decent balance of those priorities. I feel like they mostly delivered on that last time. But, (I'm assuming here) the number one priority of our group in the survey is pay rates, some other things may suffer a little. We'll see
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