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Old 03-26-2017, 06:56 PM
  #7471  
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Originally Posted by DENpilot View Post
It's a load of horse****. People getting hired now will upgrade in about 4-5 years with current projections, which include not only growth, but attrition, retirements and other factors.
4-5? I mean I can see that if we don't open a new base and people stay but opening a new base and FOs bailing I see somewhere between 24 and 30 months for someone hired before June of this year.

Of course if we decide to return all CEO airplanes for NEOs 4-6 is possible but if we keep the newer airplanes it's not possible with the current trends and expectations.

That's all from Ms. Cleo tonight
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Old 03-26-2017, 07:25 PM
  #7472  
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Originally Posted by xjtr View Post
Why do you say that? Is it just based on the projected new aircraft deliveries? What's to say, they don't order more new aircraft in the coming years? The ULCC market still may have room to grow. There aren't many US carriers doing international flying in the ULCC model. This is one way the company could continue to grow. I'm not saying it will happen, but I don't know if I would say you'd never upgrade at F9 if you don't get hired in 2017...
My stance on the upgrades at F9 are purely based on our planned growth. Given the information available, that is my hypothesis. I don't have a crystal ball, I don't know what's going to happen in the future, but as it stands today, those hired after 2017 will have a very long time before upgrade. Retirements never hit F9 particularly hard. There is no fast track to upgrade after the planned aircraft come on property. Is that subject to change? Absolutely, but I wouldn't plan on coming to F9 in 2018 with any hopes of a quick upgrade based on current plans.

I've heard 2300-2500 pilots on property. Assuming an upgrade at 55% that means seniority number 1375. Jan 2017 hires are in the 1100 range. By the end of 2017 we will have seniority number 1350 on property. I'm no mathematician, but that's what I came up with.
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Old 03-26-2017, 08:15 PM
  #7473  
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That's all from Ms. Cleo tonight[/QUOTE]

You know Ms. Cleo died last year right?
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Old 03-26-2017, 08:16 PM
  #7474  
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Originally Posted by Windsor View Post
Retirements never hit F9 particularly hard.
Retirements at F9

2017 - 9
2018 - 9
2019 - 12
2020 - 12
2021 - 11
2022 - 12
2022 - 17
2023 - 17
2024 - 17
2025 - 30
2026 - 32
2027 - 24
2028 - 37
2029 - 34
2030 - 37
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Old 03-27-2017, 04:02 AM
  #7475  
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Originally Posted by Windsor View Post
I've heard 2300-2500 pilots on property. Assuming an upgrade at 55% that means seniority number 1375. Jan 2017 hires are in the 1100 range. By the end of 2017 we will have seniority number 1350 on property. I'm no mathematician, but that's what I came up with.
120 planes equals approx 2000 pilots. They've got to hire and attempt to retain about 800 more pilots (plus the pilots who bail) in the next 3-4 years. That won't be easy unless we get a new contract by then (look at what Allegiant's new contract did for their hiring). Retirements here mean nothing...it's all about the retention...and that's where the problem is. We are losing new hires at an increasing rate. Guys/gals who've been on property less than 18 months seem to be the ones that are being targeted by the legacies (I'll never understand the how's and whys of legacy hiring...we've got some fantastic CAs here who are trying to get out but can't get the call). Regardless, it's going to be interesting that's for sure.

I don't see Indigo budging one bit until crap hits the fan and they suddenly and financially realize that their stubborn management techniques have put them in a place where they don't have enough pilots to fly all of their new airplanes. It's this new "head in the sand" business school mentality that makes no sense to any of us on the front lines.
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Old 03-27-2017, 04:47 AM
  #7476  
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Originally Posted by SpankysLadder View Post
I don't see Indigo budging one bit until crap hits the fan and they suddenly and financially realize that their stubborn management techniques have put them in a place where they don't have enough pilots to fly all of their new airplanes. It's this new "head in the sand" business school mentality that makes no sense to any of us on the front lines.
The management style your describing is not new however. Unfortunately throughout history it's been more common than not. Thus the incarnation of labor unions in the 1800's.

The Herb Kellehers/David Neelemans of the industry are what's the rarity.

THAT I don't understand.
You'd think if you were a CEO in the airline industry you'd read just one of the several books on Herbs management style and use some of the plays out of his playbook. It's real simple as a CEO to look around the industry and think, hey ya know what, that guy did something right, I'm going to emulate his management style, just better.
Instead they emulate the same labor relations of the past that saw carriers come and go.

Right off Neeleman's Wikipedia page:
"As the CEO of JetBlue Airways, his 2002 salary was $200,000 with a bonus of $90,000. Neeleman donated his entire salary to the JetBlue Crewmember Crisis Fund, which was established for JetBlue employees who had fallen on hard times."

B6 just got a 6% or 8% pay increase the first of the year, during negotiations.

Invest in your people first proves itself every time.
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Old 03-27-2017, 05:01 AM
  #7477  
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Originally Posted by SpankysLadder View Post
I don't see Indigo budging one bit until crap hits the fan and they suddenly and financially realize that their stubborn management techniques have put them in a place where they don't have enough pilots to fly all of their new airplanes. It's this new "head in the sand" business school mentality that makes no sense to any of us on the front lines.
Why should they? They are making a ton of money and pilots are still doing things to help them out such as taxiing on one engine and not starting the APU. It baffles me how people can do things to help Indigo out, but I see it all the time at the airport. Personally, I wouldn't want to upset the people who are in charge of the throttles if I were the boss. But gas is cheap and people keep doing things to save help them save it.

Until people stop applying, nothing is going to change. And we strike of course.
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Old 03-27-2017, 05:08 AM
  #7478  
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Originally Posted by Smokey23 View Post
SWA guy, here. Having just finally come out of four years of mgmt stiff-arming us for a new contract, it pains me to see that you guys also have some died-in-the-wool, anti-union types working against your collective best interests. For us, the union guidance during our negotiations was to wear a dark tie (preferably black!) and the union tie tack. I'm sure most of you who have any time in this business know what a love-affair many of our pilots had with the flag ties since Sept 11th....and I was one of 'em! Sadly, we have our share of A319's ilk on property and it was the same sort of mamby-pamby rationalizing from these guys how they couldn't possibly give up their flag ties: "Passengers love 'em!" "I'm a vet and it's a show of support for them!" and so on.... All are true statements, but NONE are an adequate excuse for not complying with your union's temporary request to provide a visible sign of solidarity until such time as a new contract is ratified. And just like A319, this crowd also parroted the same line that "nobody notices your tie/lanyard/bag tag, etc..." HOG WASH!!!!! Your management wants nothing more than to believe your union does not speak for you....and if enough of your pilots are so misguided/apathetic/afraid or JUST PLAIN ANTI-UNION that they cannot even take the simple step of putting on a lanyard that (I'm guessing here) just showed up in their box one day, well then management's view may just be correct and your negotiating committee will be that much more out-gunned. I promise you, management IS noticing!!!! They are testing your collective resolve and numbers matter!

So if you're not a lanyard guy--time to become one. If you're not already scheduled to fly during your first picket--time to move whatever mountains you must to get your butt to the IP. It WILL make a difference!

Best of luck to you guys/gals!
Great post. I'm a Spirit guy here and I challenge (respectfully) everyone who is not wearing the lanyard. I keep an extra one in my bag to offer as well. It IS important. If I see a F9 guy not wearing an orange one I will ask him where his is. We'd appreciate it if you would do the same for us. Let's all show some solidarity.
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Old 03-27-2017, 06:57 AM
  #7479  
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Originally Posted by DENpilot View Post
Amen.

Someone who doesn't advocate for fair pay, refuses to show solidarity by simply wearing a lanyard, and then pretty much outright admits they are disconnected and don't care about these historic negotiations (see quote, "I come to work, do my job and go home, I never make any waves, and I do everything as my employer asks me to.") does not deserve respect.

I am not advocating for any work action, but in case you haven't noticed, A319, getting ground air hooked up takes an act of God in 99% of our stations. Never mind that when you pull in and wait 5 minutes for the GPU to be hooked up, ramp is mindlessly wandering around your idling engine. If you think the risks outweigh the couple of $$$ of fuel, and making our pax and FAs uncomfortable (as if their job isn't bad enough) is a better alternative than running the APU, then by all means, carry on.
Wow. I think I must clarify what I mean. I definitely want us to be compensated as best we can be. I certainly want as much money in my pocket as I can get, especially with the company making as much money as it is. I am not "anti-union" by any means, I fully support our unions efforts and our pilot group. My whole point is that wearing a lanyard isn't going to solve any problems. And it certainly isn't anyone's business if I wear a lanyard or not. Also, it's no ones business if I start the APU or single engine taxi, that's my decision. However, I do support our efforts and hope that we do secure a great contract. Although, I don't think we will get a contract that is terrifically better than our peers, I think it will be along the lines of what our peers have now. If I'm wrong, then that's great, I'd love to be pleasantly surprised by the outcome of these negotiations. No, I won't be picketing on the 19th, because, just as with the lanyard, I don't think it is really going to help the situation.
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Old 03-27-2017, 07:08 AM
  #7480  
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Originally Posted by A319 View Post
Wow. I think I must clarify what I mean. I definitely want us to be compensated as best we can be. I certainly want as much money in my pocket as I can get, especially with the company making as much money as it is. I am not "anti-union" by any means, I fully support our unions efforts and our pilot group. My whole point is that wearing a lanyard isn't going to solve any problems. And it certainly isn't anyone's business if I wear a lanyard or not. Also, it's no ones business if I start the APU or single engine taxi, that's my decision. However, I do support our efforts and hope that we do secure a great contract. Although, I don't think we will get a contract that is terrifically better than our peers, I think it will be along the lines of what our peers have now. If I'm wrong, then that's great, I'd love to be pleasantly surprised by the outcome of these negotiations. No, I won't be picketing on the 19th, because, just as with the lanyard, I don't think it is really going to help the situation.
The union has asked us to wear the lanyard and attend picketing on the 19th. If you "fully support our unions efforts and pilot group", why can't you be bothered to actually participate in the process when called upon? ALPA has been negotiating contracts for a long time and these steps have been proven beneficial. Please expand on what you believe we should do to help our situation.
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