BluesClues

You’re misreading it, there are about 130 upgrades in the 320 in total. Because it’s not a displacement bid you can’t go by the negative numbers in the vacancies column, you go by the active vs target pilots columns.

For example, using JFK 320 CA, on 10/1 they will have 655 active, -19 vacancies for a total target of 636. On 12/02 they have a vacancy of -22 but a target of 630. Meaning if 19 guys bid out on 10/1 they won’t backfill them and only need another 6 to leave on the 12/02 vacancy, not the 22 listed.

Edit to add theoretical example…

Since this is not a displacement bid, for every CA that doesn’t change seats, that creates another upgrade. So again just using JFK and EWR as an example. By the end of the year they want 18 less JFK 320 CA’s and 73 more EWR 320 CA’s. So if 18 JFK CA’s move over then that creates 55 upgrades. But theoretically if no current CA’s move over, then that creates 73 upgrades because the negative vacancy numbers are not displacement, just backfills. Again very simplified but shows the difference in this and a displacement bid.

Bgood

And I think overall it becomes a range of 285 upgrades (atleast) to possible 300+ (if current captains remain where they are) for all of 2022

Boomer

Notice I said “displacement” with quotes around it. I know this isn’t a displacement bid, and you are correct that if no Captains bid EWR than FOs will be upgraded to fill those slots.


The 2022 Vacancy Bid numbers show that the EWR base is not adding Captains to the system - just moving the Captain jobs from JFK. Whether or not the JFK captains bid EWR or stay where they are, the NET result is basically no new Captains in the 320.

Comparing January “Total Pilots” to December “Target Pilots” gives the following:

JFK 697 -> 630 = -67
JFK SQ. 30 -> 25 = -5
BOS 361 -> 338 = -23
BOS SQ 0 -> 24 = +24
EWR 0 -> 73 = +73
LAX 149 -> 169 = +20
FLL 304 -> 291 = -13
MCO 96 -> 102 = +6

JFK needs 72 fewer Captains by the end of 2022. EWR needs 73. That’s a wash.

System-wide there are NET only 15 more 320 Captain slots at the end of 2022 than there are at the beginning of 2022.

BeatNavy

Total pilots includes offline pilots. You need to look at active pilots from the first bid period to target pilots (which are only counting target active pilots) for the last one.

BluesClues

You’re misreading it again, Total pilots has almost no meaning in this, it’s active pilots to target pilots. That’s all that matters.

nuball5

72 fewer Captains in JFK?! The net is definitely more than 15. Training center will be very busy next year minus another Covid wave that decimates our industry again.

Boomer

Gotcha. I wasn’t subtracting the inactive pilots.

nuball5

Would be nice if they’d provide a little context/information on the System Bid numbers right? I’ve heard some other airlines do that. It’s not intuitive.

panpanpan

So what good is “positive space commute” if the flights are not “selectable” or “available”? Tried to book a commute and the only option was 3 connecting flights…

seekingblue

it means that either
A) the flight is full
B) Salt lake needs to unblock seats

Most folks I know have booked positive space seats a few weeks in advance with good results…..