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Old 07-03-2020, 04:22 PM
  #8791  
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Originally Posted by Flyby1206 View Post
Gather round for Flyby making stupid predictions:

JB delivery schedule (pg 33):
https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives...20form10-q.htm
A220s, 1 in 2020 and 7 in 2021.

Breeze deliveries start April 2021:
https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/n...launch-to-2021

DL taking 6 A220-300s in 2020:
https://thepointsguy.com/news/airbus...led-in-mobile/

A220 production list (note MSNs 55142-55146 are unassigned):
https://www.abcdlist.nl/cseries/cseries.html

Mobile plant produces 1-2 A220s/mo:
https://leehamnews.com/2020/04/08/ai...es-by-a-third/

2020 A220s Mobile:
55069 DL (damaged in assembly)
55070 DL (flight testing BFM)
55075 DL on FAL
55080 DL
55084 DL
55085 DL
55099 B6 on FAL

2021 A220s Mobile (11 airframes):
55096 DL
55101 DL
55104 B6
55107 DL
55108 B6
55113 B6
55115 B6
55120 B6
55124 B6
55128 Breeze
55132 B6

2022 A220s Mobile:
55137 B6

Looking at all of the above it seems the 2021 Mobile FAL is showing about 5-6 airframes fewer than would be projected otherwise. I am going to make a wild guess and say B6 takes 5 more A220s in 2021, and possibly even pull 1 more delivery forward into 2020. The unassigned airframes could be slotted for Breeze, although it doesn't inspire confidence since DL and B6 have slots assigned but only 1 for Breeze so far. Delta has 7 additional projected deliveries for 2021, but again they aren't firmed up on the schedule yet, which might be telling as well considering DL already shows on the schedule for other 2020-2021 slots. Thoughts? Will Delta fill the unassigned slots? Will Airbus cut Mobile production to 1/mo?
Canít wait for the first A220s to arrive. A real game changer!!!!
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Old 07-03-2020, 07:50 PM
  #8792  
The REAL Bluedriver
 
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Originally Posted by Flyby1206 View Post
Gather round for Flyby making stupid predictions:

JB delivery schedule (pg 33):
https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives...20form10-q.htm
A220s, 1 in 2020 and 7 in 2021.

Breeze deliveries start April 2021:
https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/n...launch-to-2021

DL taking 6 A220-300s in 2020:
https://thepointsguy.com/news/airbus...led-in-mobile/

A220 production list (note MSNs 55142-55146 are unassigned):
https://www.abcdlist.nl/cseries/cseries.html

Mobile plant produces 1-2 A220s/mo:
https://leehamnews.com/2020/04/08/ai...es-by-a-third/

2020 A220s Mobile:
55069 DL (damaged in assembly)
55070 DL (flight testing BFM)
55075 DL on FAL
55080 DL
55084 DL
55085 DL
55099 B6 on FAL

2021 A220s Mobile (11 airframes):
55096 DL
55101 DL
55104 B6
55107 DL
55108 B6
55113 B6
55115 B6
55120 B6
55124 B6
55128 Breeze
55132 B6

2022 A220s Mobile:
55137 B6

Looking at all of the above it seems the 2021 Mobile FAL is showing about 5-6 airframes fewer than would be projected otherwise. I am going to make a wild guess and say B6 takes 5 more A220s in 2021, and possibly even pull 1 more delivery forward into 2020. The unassigned airframes could be slotted for Breeze, although it doesn't inspire confidence since DL and B6 have slots assigned but only 1 for Breeze so far. Delta has 7 additional projected deliveries for 2021, but again they aren't firmed up on the schedule yet, which might be telling as well considering DL already shows on the schedule for other 2020-2021 slots. Thoughts? Will Delta fill the unassigned slots? Will Airbus cut Mobile production to 1/mo?
I think this is some damn fine investigative journalism, and may be part of the big picture.
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Old 07-03-2020, 08:45 PM
  #8793  
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Originally Posted by BunkerF16 View Post
Hey brother! Long time no hear! Hope all is well. As for the agreement, our MEC is still under an NDA and they said they hope more information can be put out in a few weeks. While the JB-UA rumor has circulated over here for years too, I don't think that's what this is. If you put a gun to my head, I'd say we just signed some kind of agreement with AAL. They're pulling their international hub out of LAX. There's rumors we're going to close LGB and move all west coast operations to LAX. I've hear AAL is giving up slots in JFK and reducing ops even more in Boston.

Again, just a bunch of pilots sitting around the sewing club speculating after they specifically told us not to, but you know pilots. We do what we want.

If you hear anything more on your side, let me know. Talk to ya later!
Wow, interesting.

I think if JB-AAL join up, there will be immense pressure on UAL & DAL to merge with someone. I've also heard a UAL-Frontier merger is possible. That would make sense with our mutual presence at DEN & Frontier's emphasis on leisure travel (a big Achilles heel for us). Curiously, we just had a displacement that looks like it's going to gut our Airbus pilot numbers, but no announcement on jet retirements.

Strange times indeed, good to hear from you & hope all is well given the circumstances.
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Old 07-04-2020, 02:24 AM
  #8794  
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Originally Posted by Viperstick View Post
Wow, interesting.

I think if JB-AAL join up, there will be immense pressure on UAL & DAL to merge with someone. I've also heard a UAL-Frontier merger is possible. That would make sense with our mutual presence at DEN & Frontier's emphasis on leisure travel (a big Achilles heel for us). Curiously, we just had a displacement that looks like it's going to gut our Airbus pilot numbers, but no announcement on jet retirements.

Strange times indeed, good to hear from you & hope all is well given the circumstances.
JB and AAL won't merge. At most, a codeshare. I believe AA and Alaska have a new codeshare out West. I could see a similar agreement with JB out east, especially in light of recent developments.
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Old 07-04-2020, 03:36 AM
  #8795  
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A merger would be a worst case scenario. Especially with American or Southwest. We want nothing to do with any of that.
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Old 07-04-2020, 05:49 AM
  #8796  
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Where is the info saying 60 JFK slots are being returned by someone? That would be great news for us, we desperately need our own set of fortress hubs.

Will be sad to see the 190s go, those planes are so convenient to work and turn very quick.

what is wrong with AA that they as the biggest airline in the world need codeshares with Alaska and maybe B6? Giving me Ottoman Empire sick man of europe vibes. A merge with them would be catastrophic, a lot of very bitter people there that would wring the very last drops of bluejuice out of all of you.
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Old 07-04-2020, 06:40 AM
  #8797  
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Originally Posted by Bluetruth View Post
Where is the info saying 60 JFK slots are being returned by someone? That would be great news for us, we desperately need our own set of fortress hubs.

Will be sad to see the 190s go, those planes are so convenient to work and turn very quick.

what is wrong with AA that they as the biggest airline in the world need codeshares with Alaska and maybe B6? Giving me Ottoman Empire sick man of europe vibes. A merge with them would be catastrophic, a lot of very bitter people there that would wring the very last drops of bluejuice out of all of you.
A merge with AA would scare the hell out of me. I canít see that making sense at all. If anything, an acquisition of a ULCC might make sense under the right circumstances. Itís all tea leaves though. As someone else accurately stated, we were told not to speculate, but we do what we want lol.
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Old 07-04-2020, 06:45 AM
  #8798  
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Iím going with the simplest explanation. They are still negotiating with the FAís.


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Old 07-04-2020, 10:17 AM
  #8799  
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Originally Posted by RiddleEagle18 View Post
Iím going with the simplest explanation. They are still negotiating with the FAís.


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I would agree. Not sure the "business event" is FA's agreeing to a TA (in the face of "non-furlough" FA separations) during this time but generally I would be prepared to be underwhelmed.
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Old 07-04-2020, 10:21 AM
  #8800  
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Originally Posted by Roy Biggins View Post
A merge with AA would scare the hell out of me. I canít see that making sense at all. If anything, an acquisition of a ULCC might make sense under the right circumstances. Itís all tea leaves though. As someone else accurately stated, we were told not to speculate, but we do what we want lol.
They only way a merger with AA make sense is if AA filed for BK first.
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