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Bottom of SWA or bottom of new American?

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Bottom of SWA or bottom of new American?

Old 11-19-2013, 07:36 PM
  #141  
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Originally Posted by itsokimapilot View Post
I think we are saying the same thing. No?



My only point regarding AA, is I've heard folks on here saying that they're gonna upgrade to Capt in 6 years. I just don't see that being the case for any airline. All this upgrade and international talk sounds like a dangling carrot. What we don't see is the next economic struggle that could potentially put folks on the street again. I may have had too much Koolaid, but the fact remains that SWA has turned a profit EVERY year for the last 41 years. Please allow myself to repeat myself. SWA has turned a profit every single year for the last 41 years. Zero furloughs, no discussion of bankruptcy. Naysayers will proclaim Southwest was just lucky, that other airlines were successful until they weren't. I'm willing to take that bet. I wish everyone the best if they choose to fly with AA. But, make no mistake, you'll be more vulnerable to being cut at AA than SWA for the next ten years.



But, then again, what the hell do I know. I'm just a knuckle dragging gear jerker!




Six years? First time I've heard that. I think 8 yrs will be the earliest with w/b 2-3 yrs after the first upgrades.



Legacy carriers are closing in on SW's financial performance or outperforming them. The battlefield has changed.



2nd qtr margins -



DL 8.7

US 8.4

AK 8.4

SW 5.9

AA 5.5

UA 5.2

JB 2.7



I forget the exact 3rd qtr results but I think DL was 9.8, and the rest were in basically the same order.



As far as furlough risk? Hard to say. History works against the Legacy carriers. But looking back in history SW was a different airline as were the Legacy carriers.



In the next 10 yrs SW retires 27% of their pilot corps(1750/6350). AA is at 48%(3700/7700). US retires about the same percentage. That's mandatory retirements. If the typical guy leaves a year early AA will retire 55% by end of 2023. It only takes 42%, or under 10 yrs, to get to the junior CA percentage at AA (58%).



Right now junior w/b CA is 49-55% at AA(depending upon which union job data base number you use). With a static airline 45-51% retirements would generate the first newhire w/b CA. That's 10 yrs, or less, from today. The numbers are stunning. Hopefully it works out.



However, US has a lot less w/b's. AA is removing 8(?) w/b's from domestic flying. That will make w/b CA go more senior. But AA/US will need additional w/b's if the DL and UA w/b fleet percentage is the ideal. Got a crystal ball? I'd guess AA/US will require a significant increase of w/b a/c to offset US's w/b weakness. That increase should make junior w/b CA approx. 47-55% in 10 yrs.
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Old 11-19-2013, 08:11 PM
  #142  
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Originally Posted by aa73 View Post
My problem was always not being able to sleep after crossing time zones, and the recovery. It eventually led to sleep issues here at home. Guys told me I'd get used to it after a few crossings... 4 years later I was still struggling. Finally realized I am not cut out for it.
We have the same problem, although I have never done the long haul flying, only near international, I have thousands of hours flying freight on the back side of the clock. It was extremely difficult for me to deal with. I spent close to three years of my life feeling like a zombie. I already had partial insomnia and when I added in backside of the clock flying it really took its toll on me. I went from a minor problem with getting adequate rest to a major league insomniac. My body simply does not have the ability to switch back and forth between backside wakeful periods and front side wakeful periods.

It is not the equipment or the destinations that are a problem for me personally, it's the mission. I would love to fly larger aircraft to more distant destinations but when that mission requires switching back and forth between wakeful periods during the middle of the night, I personally am not well suited for it. It's not a dislike of the equipment or the destination it is the backside of the clock that steers me well away.

I realize many individuals do not have my issues, but for me insomnia is simply not worth working that type of schedule ever again. One of the reasons SWA was high on my list was the fact that there was no backside of the clock flying. We have red eyes coming, and I am thankful that I think I'm senior enough to bid away if and when they arrive.

The destinations sound cool, and the long layovers sound nice and I'm sure there is some long haul flying that does not take place on the backside, but going back and forth between front side to backside is simply not a viable option for this individual. I think I could eventually adjust to living my entire life nocturnally but that is simply not a real option when you have a family. The back and forth regimen is the real root of my sleeping issues.
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Old 11-20-2013, 02:45 AM
  #143  
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At SWA they only give you peanuts to eat.

At AA on intl. flight your dinner is what first-class is having that evening minus the wine.
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Old 11-20-2013, 03:48 AM
  #144  
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Originally Posted by BizPilot View Post
At SWA they only give you peanuts to eat.

At AA on intl. flight your dinner is what first-class is having that evening minus the wine.
I'm pretty sure I could get a better meal at Friday's than I can on a US Legacy airline, lol.
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Old 11-20-2013, 03:52 AM
  #145  
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Originally Posted by JoeyMeatballs View Post
I'm pretty sure I could get a better meal at Friday's than I can on a US Legacy airline, lol.
There is not an airline out there that will stop you from bringing your own.
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Old 11-20-2013, 03:59 AM
  #146  
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Originally Posted by tsquare View Post
There is not an airline out there that will stop you from bringing your own.
I know, I was kidding. I don't know how you guys don't eat 24/7 though. I would be 400lbs if I flew intl with all the food it's definitely a nice perk if you have self control
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Old 11-20-2013, 04:02 AM
  #147  
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Originally Posted by JoeyMeatballs View Post
I know, I was kidding. I don't know how you guys don't eat 24/7 though. I would be 400lbs if I flew intl with all the food it's definitely a nice perk if you have self control
Actually, quite the opposite is true. Since becoming more domestic, I have had more trouble keeping the weight under control. Internationally, your meal schedule is out of whack, (and yes it does take a little self control to not eat everything on the airplane), but domestically it is more defensive eating. I hate that aspect of domestic. Nothing says yummy like grabbing a greazy overpriced airport burger while running for your next airplane...
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Old 11-20-2013, 04:04 AM
  #148  
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^ yeah! I hear ya. Nothing says gross like Five Guys at 11:30pm, lol
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Old 11-20-2013, 05:03 AM
  #149  
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I've had much more time to work out on our 24hr. + International layovers and have lost weight since flying Int. But, you do have to say "No thanks, just a cup of ice please" to at least two or three inflight meals each leg, or you will end up looking like an International Flight Attendant. And with more days off at home, I get to spend a lot more time riding my road bike and going to my local gym too.

BUT as others have pointed out, you do have to come up with a way to get some sleep, both in the airplane and on the layovers, or you will be a mess. I won't drink coffee in the airplane until the last 3 hours, if that's my shift in the cockpit, otherwise I won't be able to sleep on my breaks.
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Old 11-20-2013, 06:54 AM
  #150  
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Originally Posted by Sliceback View Post
Six years? First time I've heard that. I think 8 yrs will be the earliest with w/b 2-3 yrs after the first upgrades.



Legacy carriers are closing in on SW's financial performance or outperforming them. The battlefield has changed.



2nd qtr margins -



DL 8.7

US 8.4

AK 8.4

SW 5.9

AA 5.5

UA 5.2

JB 2.7



I forget the exact 3rd qtr results but I think DL was 9.8, and the rest were in basically the same order.



As far as furlough risk? Hard to say. History works against the Legacy carriers. But looking back in history SW was a different airline as were the Legacy carriers.



In the next 10 yrs SW retires 27% of their pilot corps(1750/6350). AA is at 48%(3700/7700). US retires about the same percentage. That's mandatory retirements. If the typical guy leaves a year early AA will retire 55% by end of 2023. It only takes 42%, or under 10 yrs, to get to the junior CA percentage at AA (58%).



Right now junior w/b CA is 49-55% at AA(depending upon which union job data base number you use). With a static airline 45-51% retirements would generate the first newhire w/b CA. That's 10 yrs, or less, from today. The numbers are stunning. Hopefully it works out.



However, US has a lot less w/b's. AA is removing 8(?) w/b's from domestic flying. That will make w/b CA go more senior. But AA/US will need additional w/b's if the DL and UA w/b fleet percentage is the ideal. Got a crystal ball? I'd guess AA/US will require a significant increase of w/b a/c to offset US's w/b weakness. That increase should make junior w/b CA approx. 47-55% in 10 yrs.
Plus intl growth and expansion to compete with DL and UA...Asia, Australia, Africa
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