New Mesa Thread
12-26-2015 | 07:48 PM
#3381
Banned
Joined: Sep 2015
Posts: 519
Likes: 0
Dude, I mean, for real, dude... I defer to your experience, as I have none in the 121 world. I understand past does not equal future. I also understand that there will be less regionals in 12-24 months than there are today.
Look at the flow at Envoy? Feel free to explain that one. 30 pilots per month to AA. 360 per year. Best case. Meanwhile, sitting on reserve at ENY and flying 30 hours per month nets one 360 hours per year. Or even 500, if you wish to be generous. I am pretty sure NO ONE at Mesa flies that little even today.
It seems you think all CAs will stay at Mesa, based on your projections. While that MIGHT happen, I have my doubts. I have a feeling Mesa will continue to have a pretty large amount of attrition. But that's just my outside view looking in, and what I have read about the CEO's approach to hiring and pay.
Look at the flow at Envoy? Feel free to explain that one. 30 pilots per month to AA. 360 per year. Best case. Meanwhile, sitting on reserve at ENY and flying 30 hours per month nets one 360 hours per year. Or even 500, if you wish to be generous. I am pretty sure NO ONE at Mesa flies that little even today.
It seems you think all CAs will stay at Mesa, based on your projections. While that MIGHT happen, I have my doubts. I have a feeling Mesa will continue to have a pretty large amount of attrition. But that's just my outside view looking in, and what I have read about the CEO's approach to hiring and pay.
You are short sighted dude. No kidding these are the current junior CA. Do you not GET that that was if YOU were hired back then??? If hired now, it is TOTALLY different dynamics.
Do you understand what past verse present is? You need to stop comparing past as if it is the future...
Simple math dude. Simple math. Look at the flow at Envoy. Look at the attrition and orders remaining at Mesa. I have been in the industry way longer then you probably have. I lol when I have FO's saying they were promised a quick upgrade. Did you do the math? That is the only way you will truly know. If not you are driving into fog.
Please tell me where my math is wrong??? You only stated past history. I stated future math and upgrade potential. If you believe if you were hired today that it is the same as being hired two years ago, you are smoking some good stuff. lol
Do you understand what past verse present is? You need to stop comparing past as if it is the future...
Simple math dude. Simple math. Look at the flow at Envoy. Look at the attrition and orders remaining at Mesa. I have been in the industry way longer then you probably have. I lol when I have FO's saying they were promised a quick upgrade. Did you do the math? That is the only way you will truly know. If not you are driving into fog.
Please tell me where my math is wrong??? You only stated past history. I stated future math and upgrade potential. If you believe if you were hired today that it is the same as being hired two years ago, you are smoking some good stuff. lol
12-26-2015 | 08:03 PM
#3382
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Aug 2014
Posts: 279
Likes: 0
From: Airbus FO
Dude, I mean, for real, dude... I defer to your experience, as I have none in the 121 world. I understand past does not equal future. I also understand that there will be less regionals in 12-24 months than there are today.
Look at the flow at Envoy? Feel free to explain that one. 30 pilots per month to AA. 360 per year. Best case. Meanwhile, sitting on reserve at ENY and flying 30 hours per month nets one 360 hours per year. Or even 500, if you wish to be generous. I am pretty sure NO ONE at Mesa flies that little even today.
It seems you think all CAs will stay at Mesa, based on your projections. While that MIGHT happen, I have my doubts. I have a feeling Mesa will continue to have a pretty large amount of attrition. But that's just my outside view looking in, and what I have read about the CEO's approach to hiring and pay.
Look at the flow at Envoy? Feel free to explain that one. 30 pilots per month to AA. 360 per year. Best case. Meanwhile, sitting on reserve at ENY and flying 30 hours per month nets one 360 hours per year. Or even 500, if you wish to be generous. I am pretty sure NO ONE at Mesa flies that little even today.
It seems you think all CAs will stay at Mesa, based on your projections. While that MIGHT happen, I have my doubts. I have a feeling Mesa will continue to have a pretty large amount of attrition. But that's just my outside view looking in, and what I have read about the CEO's approach to hiring and pay.
At Mesa, upgrade time alone if hired now is 5 years plus with my math and then good luck getting out of here with no flow. Currently as the standing bid awards are ran, and for all of 2016, they will continue to look like you will have a quick upgrade, but it won't be 6 months, 9 months, or a year. It is slowly taking longer and longer as guys get their time to upgrade. As a new FO hired today, you will move up the list in 2016 by maybe 100 or more due to the upgrades and some attrition, but once the last E175 is delivered, you will have 400-450 FO's senior to you still and probably no further deliveries. Suddenly you will realize with no growth and no attrition your upgrade just skyrocketed a lot of years up to 5 plus because now you only move up due to attrition. Again no flow to help. We have about 300 lifers so when you do get the other 250-300 to slowly leave, you will get to replace them. At Envoy you have about 700 who want to leave. Higher percentage of attrition. Does this all make some sense? I hope it does. I really want people to understand the dynamics are always changing so you need to adapt or you will regret it.
Do what you want. I personally would not come to Mesa as a new hire. I have done the math. I have always been very close to spot on and my friends know it and call me to ask what I think. So do what you want. Good luck with your decisions. I have no reason to lead you wrong. It doesn't do me any good.
Last edited by wt932051; 12-26-2015 at 08:17 PM.
12-26-2015 | 08:14 PM
#3383
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Dec 2013
Posts: 1,602
Likes: 0
Isn't Envoy parking planes you can't just count the 175s as a net gain.
12-26-2015 | 08:15 PM
#3384
Banned
Joined: Sep 2015
Posts: 519
Likes: 0
I can agree with most of your post, minus the lifers at Envoy. I was told by some pilots who actually work there that it's more like 300 CAs who won't go anywhere. I don't think that is half of the CAs, is it?
Not arguing that ENY is going to experience more movement in 2016, nor that Mesa will have less. Probably accurate. But by early 2017, I hope to be moving on to somewhere better than either of them. So... Which company will get me the requisite 1000 hours the quickest?
Not arguing that ENY is going to experience more movement in 2016, nor that Mesa will have less. Probably accurate. But by early 2017, I hope to be moving on to somewhere better than either of them. So... Which company will get me the requisite 1000 hours the quickest?
You are forgetting that at Envoy the top half of Captains are lifers and do not want to flow. They also recently got a new flow agreement changing the dynamics. When I did the math a few weeks ago, every captain that wants to flow into American will be able to within the next two years. That means half the FO's on the list will be able to upgrade. This is flow only. If you factor in the regrowth of envoy with the 175's over the next several years it means you will upgrade in about 4 years and flow to American in about 6-7.
At Mesa, upgrade time alone if hired now is 5 years plus with my math and then good luck getting out of here with no flow. Currently as the standing bid awards are ran, and for all of 2016, they will continue to look like you will have a quick upgrade, but it won't be 6 months, 9 months, or a year. It is slowly taking longer and longer. As a new FO hired today, you will move up the list in 2016 by maybe 100 but once the last E175 is delivered, you will have 400-450 FO's senior to you still and probably no further deliveries. Suddenly you will realize with no growth and no attrition your upgrade just skyrocketed a lot of years up to 5 plus because now you only move up due to attrition. Again no flow to help. We have about 300 lifers so when you do get the other 250 to slowly leave, you will get to replace them. At Envoy you have about 700 who want to leave. Higher percentage of attrition. Does this all make some sense? I hope it does. I really want people to understand the dynamics are always changing so you need to adapt or you will regret it.
Do what you want. I personally would not come to Mesa as a new hire. I have done the math. I have always been very close to spot on and my friends know it and call me to ask what I think. So do what you want. Good luck with your decisions. I have no reason to lead you wrong. It doesn't do me any good.
At Mesa, upgrade time alone if hired now is 5 years plus with my math and then good luck getting out of here with no flow. Currently as the standing bid awards are ran, and for all of 2016, they will continue to look like you will have a quick upgrade, but it won't be 6 months, 9 months, or a year. It is slowly taking longer and longer. As a new FO hired today, you will move up the list in 2016 by maybe 100 but once the last E175 is delivered, you will have 400-450 FO's senior to you still and probably no further deliveries. Suddenly you will realize with no growth and no attrition your upgrade just skyrocketed a lot of years up to 5 plus because now you only move up due to attrition. Again no flow to help. We have about 300 lifers so when you do get the other 250 to slowly leave, you will get to replace them. At Envoy you have about 700 who want to leave. Higher percentage of attrition. Does this all make some sense? I hope it does. I really want people to understand the dynamics are always changing so you need to adapt or you will regret it.
Do what you want. I personally would not come to Mesa as a new hire. I have done the math. I have always been very close to spot on and my friends know it and call me to ask what I think. So do what you want. Good luck with your decisions. I have no reason to lead you wrong. It doesn't do me any good.
12-26-2015 | 08:20 PM
#3386
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Aug 2014
Posts: 279
Likes: 0
From: Airbus FO
Look at Piedmont, PSA, Envoy, etc., and also look at where you want to live. Then decide. I just don't think Mesa is a good choice at this point.
12-26-2015 | 08:23 PM
#3388
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Aug 2014
Posts: 279
Likes: 0
From: Airbus FO
I can agree with most of your post, minus the lifers at Envoy. I was told by some pilots who actually work there that it's more like 300 CAs who won't go anywhere. I don't think that is half of the CAs, is it?
Not arguing that ENY is going to experience more movement in 2016, nor that Mesa will have less. Probably accurate. But by early 2017, I hope to be moving on to somewhere better than either of them. So... Which company will get me the requisite 1000 hours the quickest?
Not arguing that ENY is going to experience more movement in 2016, nor that Mesa will have less. Probably accurate. But by early 2017, I hope to be moving on to somewhere better than either of them. So... Which company will get me the requisite 1000 hours the quickest?
Anyway they have about 1400 captains roughly.
12-26-2015 | 08:44 PM
#3389
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jan 2015
Posts: 1,198
Likes: 0
There is NO regrowth with 175's at Envoy. The 175's are replacing other aircraft which are going to Express Jet.
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