New Mesa Thread
02-14-2016, 09:31 AM
#4381
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2014
Posts: 304
Originally Posted by BeatNavy
Estimations on movement and upgrade times aren't factual information, even if flaps says it. Facts are that 2/3 of the seniority list at DL and I think AA/UA as well will retire in the next 10 years. A lot of that will happen in the next 5 years. Everyone who is still stuck in the lost decade mindset that there is no hiring and movement outside of regional growth hasn't absorbed that yet. Movement is happening. Attrition off the top at Mesa is happening. Lifers are changing their mind. Lateral moves aren't the only moves FOs are making either. LCCs are growing, legacies are growing, and retirements are happening. Even an economic downturn and the rise of oil prices in 9-12 months can't stop the retirements, and regional pilots (even Mesa ones) will move to LCCs and legacies (Until age 67 happens and delays it a couple more years). Until the right seats aren't filled, upgrades will remain quick (<2 years) here.
Almost every regional now offers the 2-3-4 year upgrade time for the reasons you mentioned. I don't know why someone coming in new would opt to work those FO years for much less than they could earn elsewhere. In some cases, by joining Mesa, they are earning less than half of the earnings they would make elsewhere. Thankfully things are finally changing and pilots are getting adequate compensation.
And I also agree with you about being stuck in the mindset of the lost decade. That was then. This is now. Times are changing.
02-14-2016, 11:43 AM
#4382
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2014
Posts: 121
Originally Posted by flapshalfspeed
There's zero upside potential at Mesa now though (for someone without 1,000 hours prior 121 time). All of the future Captains for all of our planned or potential growth/attrition are already on property and fast-approaching their 1,000 hours 121 time necessary for upgrade.
When a person comes here today (without previous 121 experience), it's basically the same thing as when a plumber/janitor reads about some hot new growth stock in an investing magazine 3-6 months after all of the fund managers and expert investors have already bought up the cheap shares that will actually yield gains.
A total FNG w/o 121 experience might eek out a decent bump in FO seniority before the last EJet arrives, but all of our future upgrades for the next 3-5 years are already on property. My gut instinct based on a decade of experience with regional airline cycles says a noob with south of 1,000 hours 121 time is looking at a max upside potential of 30-40% in FO seniority, and then a 3-5 year wait for a left-seat.
I've been a Mesa cheerleader on here for a long time--I encouraged people to come here for a long time. The tides are turning, though, and I can't in good conscience adivse someone to come here now given the combination of money and opportunity that's on offer literally everywhere else. It worked out for me, it'll work out for the top 50-60% of our current FO list...but it's not going to work out for a brand new FO with south of 1,000 hours.
But yeah--for those of us already on property, our management culture and training department are top-notch.
When a person comes here today (without previous 121 experience), it's basically the same thing as when a plumber/janitor reads about some hot new growth stock in an investing magazine 3-6 months after all of the fund managers and expert investors have already bought up the cheap shares that will actually yield gains.
A total FNG w/o 121 experience might eek out a decent bump in FO seniority before the last EJet arrives, but all of our future upgrades for the next 3-5 years are already on property. My gut instinct based on a decade of experience with regional airline cycles says a noob with south of 1,000 hours 121 time is looking at a max upside potential of 30-40% in FO seniority, and then a 3-5 year wait for a left-seat.
I've been a Mesa cheerleader on here for a long time--I encouraged people to come here for a long time. The tides are turning, though, and I can't in good conscience adivse someone to come here now given the combination of money and opportunity that's on offer literally everywhere else. It worked out for me, it'll work out for the top 50-60% of our current FO list...but it's not going to work out for a brand new FO with south of 1,000 hours.
But yeah--for those of us already on property, our management culture and training department are top-notch.
02-14-2016, 02:28 PM
#4383
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2013
Posts: 1,666
Originally Posted by Datsun
What about a FNG with north of 1000 121? Will they upgrade or no?
02-14-2016, 03:36 PM
#4384
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2013
Position: CL-65
Posts: 157
Originally Posted by Datsun
What about a FNG with north of 1000 121? Will they upgrade or no?
02-14-2016, 03:37 PM
#4385
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Joined APC: Jun 2008
Position: ????
Posts: 579
Originally Posted by Xdashdriver
Most junior CA awarded on the latest award was hired Aug 2015.
02-14-2016, 05:31 PM
#4386
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2013
Posts: 1,666
Yup...upgrade DOH bounces around like that.
02-14-2016, 06:45 PM
#4387
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2010
Posts: 977
Originally Posted by iFlyRC
Attrition will help the new guys, keep hearing that 15 CA's left this month, but can't confirm.
Assuming that most of the people above them will be hitting 1,000 hours 121 time over that three year period as an FO, and subtracting off the lifer FOs, I'm very confident that unless there is a significant uptick in attrition (as a fraction of the pilot group), my statement holds--a new hire with zero 121 is looking at a 4-5 year upgrade time.
A lot of Houston pilots (particularly us Houston Captains) have developed a very skewed perspective on how fast things are moving systemwide, because we're a small base that's still receiving new birds on a regular basis (and because the CRJ guys are essentially ring-fenced off from our operation by the current contract).
1.25% global average attrition looks and "feels" like a lot more movement to an IAH CA or FO than it does to an IAD CA or FO--just saying. You have to look at the math to really understand what a new hire can actually expect in progression.
02-14-2016, 07:09 PM
#4388
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2010
Posts: 977
Originally Posted by BeatNavy
Estimations on movement and upgrade times aren't factual information, even if flaps says it. Facts are that 2/3 of the seniority list at DL and I think AA/UA as well will retire in the next 10 years. A lot of that will happen in the next 5 years. Everyone who is still stuck in the lost decade mindset that there is no hiring and movement outside of regional growth hasn't absorbed that yet. Movement is happening. Attrition off the top at Mesa is happening. Lifers are changing their mind. Lateral moves aren't the only moves FOs are making either. LCCs are growing, legacies are growing, and retirements are happening. Even an economic downturn and the rise of oil prices in 9-12 months can't stop the retirements, and regional pilots (even Mesa ones) will move to LCCs and legacies (Until age 67 happens and delays it a couple more years). Until the right seats aren't filled, upgrades will remain quick (<2 years) here.
02-14-2016, 07:22 PM
#4389
Covfefe
Joined APC: Jun 2015
Posts: 3,001
Originally Posted by flapshalfspeed
1.25% attrition from the Captain ranks between January 1st and now. Until I see that number climbing, I will be in a "lost decade" mindset.
02-15-2016, 12:56 AM
#4390
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2010
Posts: 977
Originally Posted by BeatNavy
The number has to climb. It's science.
Sounds more like astrology than science to me.
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