The Useful PSA Thread
02-13-2015 | 07:14 PM
#1782
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Joined: Nov 2014
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Well saying that 8% of the pilots in each class, on average, leave on their own, insinuates it is not a choice in who they hire or a problem with training as much.
I'd bet maybe 2-3% total leave of their own accord, most really leaving before they get booted, not on to a major.
As soon as I mentioned that I thought they were hiring too many "this guy probably won't pass but let's try anyway" types, there was a immediate sensitive response. I think there is sometbing here and to me it is obvious what is going on.
I agree that it doesn't make a diffference to a new hire per se as much as it is showing a little desperation on the part of the airline though.
I'd bet maybe 2-3% total leave of their own accord, most really leaving before they get booted, not on to a major.
As soon as I mentioned that I thought they were hiring too many "this guy probably won't pass but let's try anyway" types, there was a immediate sensitive response. I think there is sometbing here and to me it is obvious what is going on.
I agree that it doesn't make a diffference to a new hire per se as much as it is showing a little desperation on the part of the airline though.
02-13-2015 | 08:05 PM
#1784
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Joined: May 2009
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Hey don't get me wrong it was worth a shot but in retrospect what would have happened? You are fighting the wrong battle, and I'm not talking about fighting with PSA. I'm talking about acknowledging the fact that regional airlines shouldn't even exist.
Should regional pilots stick together = irrelevant
Is alpa the best union for regional airlines = irrelevant
Should regional pilots be excited about 70 and 90 seat jets arriving = irrelevant
Signing bonuses, retention bonuses = irrelevant
Which regional will be allowed to do ATP writtens = irrelevant
100 more things I can't think of.
Should regional airlines, a B scale where mainline pilots sell scope for $$$ even exist? = Completely the right question to ask and answer no. This is your fight, this is your campaign. With any luck in 5 years regional airlines will not exist.
Should regional pilots stick together = irrelevant
Is alpa the best union for regional airlines = irrelevant
Should regional pilots be excited about 70 and 90 seat jets arriving = irrelevant
Signing bonuses, retention bonuses = irrelevant
Which regional will be allowed to do ATP writtens = irrelevant
100 more things I can't think of.
Should regional airlines, a B scale where mainline pilots sell scope for $$$ even exist? = Completely the right question to ask and answer no. This is your fight, this is your campaign. With any luck in 5 years regional airlines will not exist.
Good luck with that.
02-13-2015 | 08:27 PM
#1785
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Joined: May 2009
Posts: 2,035
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Well, I am in my 40's, have been in aviation for quite some time, have never stepped foot in an "ATP puppy mill", and I have not lived with momma since I was 17. I learned to fly the "old fashioned" way, and paid for every dollar of it with cash. Other than that, you hit the nail on the head. Good job.
And yes, regionals do ebb and flow. That is why it is important to choose the company that you work for very carefully. The goal is to get time in the left seat so you can get out. Pick a company that will do that with the best quality of life. If you chose wrong and are in a company that stagnates, get the heck out as quickly as possible and get to a place where you can better your career.
I am not sure that you understand stagnation. Stagnation is the death of a regional. That is why the regionals wanted a 12/4 pay scale and put flows/ssp's in place. They don't want people stuck in the right seat for 8 years. The biggest marketing tool that they have is quick upgrades and quick movement to a regional. If they can do that, then they can keep a constant stream of low cost pilots moving through. Envoy stagnated and is dying.
Unlike you, however, I feel bad for the guys that are stuck at other companies in the right seat for 8 years, or on reserve for 3. I answer questions that they have as honestly as I can. I give them interview advice, and answer questions about training. I hope that they move forward and find something better. PSA is working on a plan to create an accelerated training program for people that are prior 121 and typed in the CRJ. It will allow them to get through training faster and get to the line where they can make more money. I was happy to hear this, and hope that it benefits guys that are stuck in dying companies.
And yes, regionals do ebb and flow. That is why it is important to choose the company that you work for very carefully. The goal is to get time in the left seat so you can get out. Pick a company that will do that with the best quality of life. If you chose wrong and are in a company that stagnates, get the heck out as quickly as possible and get to a place where you can better your career.
I am not sure that you understand stagnation. Stagnation is the death of a regional. That is why the regionals wanted a 12/4 pay scale and put flows/ssp's in place. They don't want people stuck in the right seat for 8 years. The biggest marketing tool that they have is quick upgrades and quick movement to a regional. If they can do that, then they can keep a constant stream of low cost pilots moving through. Envoy stagnated and is dying.
Unlike you, however, I feel bad for the guys that are stuck at other companies in the right seat for 8 years, or on reserve for 3. I answer questions that they have as honestly as I can. I give them interview advice, and answer questions about training. I hope that they move forward and find something better. PSA is working on a plan to create an accelerated training program for people that are prior 121 and typed in the CRJ. It will allow them to get through training faster and get to the line where they can make more money. I was happy to hear this, and hope that it benefits guys that are stuck in dying companies.
I see, so the 12/4 pay cuts were actually management just helping improve all our lives...
02-14-2015 | 05:15 AM
#1786
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Joined: Dec 2014
Posts: 955
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From: CL65
What is the goal of management? To keep low cost pilots flying and get rid of pilots before they become expensive.
What is the goal of the pilots? To get the required qualifications and move up before they top out on the pay scale.
In this case, the two are hoping for the same thing - for pilots not to be at the regionals for an extended period of time. The 12/4 doesn't help pilots, but it is an attempt to prevent stagnation at the regional level. If stagnation is prevented, it does help the pilots, but it was not enacted to help pilots. The 12/4 was designed to make sure regional pilots are not payed too much if stagnation does occur. That does NOT help pilots.
02-14-2015 | 06:24 AM
#1787
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Joined: Dec 2012
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I've read a lot about the 6-7 month upgrade, but I'm curious how many upgrades there are a month? I would imagine it has to be close to 30 with 3 planes a month coming online for the next two years. I have a lot of 9E friends that made the jump in the fall that expect to upgrade by summer. Is this realistic?
02-14-2015 | 06:35 AM
#1788
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Joined: Aug 2014
Posts: 588
Likes: 24
I've read a lot about the 6-7 month upgrade, but I'm curious how many upgrades there are a month? I would imagine it has to be close to 30 with 3 planes a month coming online for the next two years. I have a lot of 9E friends that made the jump in the fall that expect to upgrade by summer. Is this realistic?
02-14-2015 | 07:29 AM
#1789
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Joined: Dec 2013
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How many FOs are passing the upgrade and what percentage is due to the lack of 1000 121 time? When is it expected that the 1000 hour bubble will burst? That is, when do you think the newbies will hit 1000 hours and then cause the fast upgrade to slow?
My guess is a year and half to get 1000 on average. You guys kinda went gangbusters jan-feb. So basically, is it forecast to back up a little by mid to late summer? Not saying the upgrade is going away, just wondering what the forecast is
My guess is a year and half to get 1000 on average. You guys kinda went gangbusters jan-feb. So basically, is it forecast to back up a little by mid to late summer? Not saying the upgrade is going away, just wondering what the forecast is
02-14-2015 | 07:39 AM
#1790
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Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 2,610
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How many FOs are passing the upgrade and what percentage is due to the lack of 1000 121 time? When is it expected that the 1000 hour bubble will burst? That is, when do you think the newbies will hit 1000 hours and then cause the fast upgrade to slow?
My guess is a year and half to get 1000 on average. You guys kinda went gangbusters jan-feb. So basically, is it forecast to back up a little by mid to late summer? Not saying the upgrade is going away, just wondering what the forecast is
My guess is a year and half to get 1000 on average. You guys kinda went gangbusters jan-feb. So basically, is it forecast to back up a little by mid to late summer? Not saying the upgrade is going away, just wondering what the forecast is
- How many new hires were prior 121 (my class in Oct had about 5 out of 32 pilots, and 3 that were going to be instructors. 3 of the 7 have the time outright, 2 are short. Add 2 more mil guys who only need 50 more hours, unless a major calls them first)
- How fast the noobs are building time (probably pretty fast once on the line)
- How many guys are taking the first available upgrade, or bypassing for whatever reason (no way of knowing)
In any event, in this post (which I'll quote below) I've laid out the mathematics for relatively fast upgrades for the next year. Maybe not 7-8 months, but certainly a lot faster than a lot of other regionals currently offering retention and hiring bonuses.
Hiring about 70 a month, attrition at about 20, net gain of 50 pilots a month while a given new hire moves up 20 places. I spoke to someone today who interviewed yesterday and was offered a 4/13 class, so about two months from interview to class date.
If the most junior guy on 2/16/15 is 1,100, using the above assumptions the most junior person on 4/13/15 is going to be 1,300.
A year after that (4/2016) he'll be very near to 1,000 while the total pilot group will be topping out around 1,900.
A year after that (4/2017) he'll be in the 750 range while the pilot group is still around 1,900 (still 16 more options out there though).
If said pilot has no 121 time when he's hired, and upgrades in 4/2017 he'll be a line holding Captain when he upgrades. If said pilot has 121 time he'll upgrade a lot sooner.
A pilot starting class in 4/2016 (say #1,900) is likely to see a lot higher attrition, especially as the Legacies, Majors, Cargo, and LCCs start to ramp up hiring. Since this group has roughly a thousand pilots now and 20 a month, it's reasonable to assume that someone hired as #1,900 could see his number go up 40 a month. If that's the case, and even assuming some slowing of his seniority gain as his seniority increases, he being 1,200-1,300 or so after a year is very possible, and well within upgrade territory a year after that is likely.
If the most junior guy on 2/16/15 is 1,100, using the above assumptions the most junior person on 4/13/15 is going to be 1,300.
A year after that (4/2016) he'll be very near to 1,000 while the total pilot group will be topping out around 1,900.
A year after that (4/2017) he'll be in the 750 range while the pilot group is still around 1,900 (still 16 more options out there though).
If said pilot has no 121 time when he's hired, and upgrades in 4/2017 he'll be a line holding Captain when he upgrades. If said pilot has 121 time he'll upgrade a lot sooner.
A pilot starting class in 4/2016 (say #1,900) is likely to see a lot higher attrition, especially as the Legacies, Majors, Cargo, and LCCs start to ramp up hiring. Since this group has roughly a thousand pilots now and 20 a month, it's reasonable to assume that someone hired as #1,900 could see his number go up 40 a month. If that's the case, and even assuming some slowing of his seniority gain as his seniority increases, he being 1,200-1,300 or so after a year is very possible, and well within upgrade territory a year after that is likely.
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