Your looking at it wrong if PDT PSA and ENY made up 100% flow people would come to those airlines for the flow. The projected flow times would drop in half.

 

More than that probably.

But if people still can't pay their bills on 1st year FO pay, they're still not going to come, no matter what the payoff down the line is.

That said, if 100% flow is a precursor to in house regional flying, I wouldn't complain.

 

Sounds like you want endeavor

 

Exactly. The flow numbers won't change at all until the pay rates and contract terms improve. Even if the flow rate doubles at PSA that still makes 5+ years to flow a pilot can get that if they start at PDT now. Also a flow is not a contract change, a flow can be turned on and off at will by mainline. No one is going to join the industry bottom pay for a flow that could "possibly" double and may "potentially" be available when they reach that point.

Anyone who has watched this industry knows that it could easily grind to a halt or even roll backwards again and the only guarantee and protection any of us have is a binding contract. (At least until the bankruptcy)

 

"You're looking at that wrong. If PDT, PSA and ENY made up 100% flow, people would come to those airlines for the flow."

That is what they want you to think. And in the past when the majority of new pilots entering the profession where younger guys, under 30, that may have been the case. And it might have worked. Times have changed. Look at new hire demographics now. A large percentage of new hires are older guys that don't have the time to wait for flows to be able to make an adequate living. Flows may benefit younger guys that have time to wait for career progression. There aren't many younger guys coming out of flight schools these days.

New hire classes are filled with older guys that are there to get current and move on to their next more lucrative opportunity, whatever that may be. They aren't waiting around for the big 3. They don't have time.

 

I don't know where you guys keep getting this whole thing that flow can be turned on and off. There was and agreement signed, remember the October LOA? Go back and read it. Each class AAG must take 5 people. MUST. However, they can hold those people at PSA till the end of the year, but they will still go. The only way they can have a class and not take people is a class for recalls.

 

From what I understand, Endeavor is fully meeting their hiring goals right now and adding two planes a month. I bet their SSP will turn into a flow at some point in the near future. Upgrade is about to drop to two years or less.

One wholly owned for each legacy doing all the regional flying is the likely future. Crew bases in everyone Legacy hub and 100% of legacy hiring from the wholly owned flow agreement. 60K for FOs, 100K for captains and a five year flow would keep the wholly owned staffed no problem. Legacy's carriers won't be flying E175s and 900s.

 

The United scope clause does not alow them to own an airline that is not part of the united seniority list. So there is some hope for the others.

 

According to our contract, they also MUST reasonable set reserve coverages on the grid and pay us critical pay when it drops below that. But you're right, since PSA would never go against the contract I am sure that the flow will continue even as we park airplanes due to a lack of staffing... I hope I'm wrong but they will ignore that LOA like other sections of the contract, it will go to arbitration and in 2 years it will be restored by an arbitrator. That will be too little to late, that is stagnation and lost seniority for the guys it screwed and PSA gets to staff a little more flying in the meantime. Again I hope I'm wrong but it wouldn't be the first time that a flow was ignored and it certainly wouldn't be the first time that PSA has gone against our contract blatantly.

 

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