They better figure out how to hire FOs first.

 

I feel like it's gonna be the bigger issue in the future if they don't increase the pay for everyone.

IMO 15k$ bonus is not gonna attract many experienced FO. They can get better going elsewhere, especially with +1000h jet time.

Just my .02

 

I would apply to PSA if I was projected to earn 50K average the first two years as an FO, 90K average the next three as a captain and flow to American after the fifth year. That sounds like a nice story I can picture plastered all over adds on APC and facebook.

 

I think the industry will reach a tipping point in the next year or so. Even places like Endeavor, CommutAir, Mesa, and SkyWest will run thin on applicants in the coming months. And then management will be faced with another decision... Do they raise pay even more and offer even bigger bonuses? And at what point does it make financial and operational sense to just bring the flying back in house (which is quite honestly the only logical direction the industry as a whole is heading) at the legacies? UA is already moving in that direction with the large order of the 737s. Credible rumors of Delta accelerating the process to begin flying 76 seat aircraft in house in 2017. Makes you wonder what AAG's end game is for the 900s and 175s? It will come down to a choice between paying your regionals ever-increasing wages to keep them staffed or just bringing the 76 jets back to mainline. I can guarantee you that if AAG brought all of its 76 seat jets back to mainline with starting pay at $50 /hour for FOs with the caveat that they can't bid off the CRJ for 4 or 5 years. There will be a tipping point and it may come faster than many people think.

 

I don't see how they can do that with the number of retirements they have coming up without completely cannibalizing their own regionals, and I don't expect they want to do that. I'd think those circumstances would lead to more, not less, off-the-street hiring at AA.

 

Don't ask questions man, that makes you dangerous! Just go with the flow

I'm with you though it doesn't make any sense why a profit generating entity would do that to itself when it could hire off the street from elsewhere. Then the benefit is two fold: the company keeps its cheap regional feed staffed with just enough bait to hire and retain labor, and also poaches labor from contract companies (i.e. non WO'd regionals) that also happen to support their competition.

I think people put WAY too much stock in this flow thing. Go out and get that college degree, build flight experience, volunteer, network, and do all of those things that have led you to believe that you suck so bad at adulting that you need a no interview "flow" to get to a career destination. Become a well rounded person that people admire and actually want to work with on a four day trip.

/rant over

 

I'm not counting on a flow nor do I particularly care about it... Just passing along what I heard. And I do think there is a tipping point to be reached. There is only so much money that makes sense to be thrown at the regionals before it just makes more sense to bring the flying back in house. When the top paying regionals of today can't hire with their current compensation, what then? I posed the question above... At what point do you just bring the 76 seat flying back in house? I think there isn't much more money to throw at regionals. At that point you're approaching year 1 compensation at mainline. In which case, why not just fly it more reliably at mainline?

 

I'd be on property by the end of the month if that was the case. Until then I need a Job that will keep the repo man away.

 

I've been here 10 years. I didn't make $90 k last year. Now if we get critical pay back I'd make $130k

 

As far as 100% flows:

I agree that 100% flow would be a very poor business decision for AAG. With the hiring at all the majors coming up, they too will be competing for the best pilots. They can't afford to limit themselves to their 3 wholly owns. And yes, why would they cannabinolize and cripple their own business rather than poaching from and weakening their competitors. I have to believe AAG management is more strategic than that.

Flow is a management tool to dangle in front of new pilots to attract them to that regional. The parent company then has control and can meter that flow as "business needs change".

For a pilot, it's nice to have in your back pocket. But with future hiring, it is unlikely that will be your best or only option to get to a major, LCC, or whatever end game you are striving for.