i think we are down over 900 pilots since 2019. We were just a couple of pilots short of ten thousand and now the list shows 9090. My tea leaves have me thinking there will be massive amounts of premium this summer. Already seeing some and a recent union email said we have already had more JA events this year than all of 2018. If will be like 2016 or whatever summer that was where you couldn’t finish a trip without an extension or a JA.

As as far as upgrades I really think it depends on where the vacancies are. If the vacancies continue to be out west upgrades will continue to go junior. I have been here 13 years in June and I’m still bypassing. With this latest vacancy the projected award shows 16 displacements out of MDW and 22 out of DEN. At 13 years I will probably not be able to hold either base it looks like. With covid and everything else nothing has changed for me. I will continue bypassing until I can hold about 85% in DEN or MDW.

 

Prior to covid guys could upgrade at 10 years (earliest opportunity on the West coast) with a more realistic number being 12 years for the vast majority including Atl & Mco guys willing to do a 1 leg commute to a more jr base. Thanks to what looks to be a relatively quick recovery from 2020 and the early retirements, upgrades look like they are getting back on glideslope so to speak. There wasn’t a lot of hiring from 2008-2013 so the 10-12yr number is going to shift down to 6-9 fairly soon depending on hire dates.

I foresee the West coast continuing to offer the earliest upgrade opportunities. Lax will likely continue to grow a bit and Denver is poised to take off as well. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Stl base in a few years which might ease things up on the East coast as well.

 

I like the direction this thread is going.

 

Aren’t JA’s just part of Operation DP (deny premium)?

The company had a choice to pay premium up front in Open Time or roll the dice and see if it went straight. They roll the dice a bunch of times and usually win. When they lose, they launch a reserve. If they run out of reserves or take a sick call they JA.

So I wouldn’t attribute a high number of JAs to being undermanned, I would say it’s part of Operation DP (deny premium).

 

According to this:

https://www.planespotters.net/airlin...hwest-Airlines

We still have about 111 airplanes parked. That site is updated daily. I think once we see a return to traffic levels utilizing those planes you will see upgrades.

 

A bunch of those planes were slated for retirement but kept in the air due to the Max grounding. Not sure how many are waiting to go back airborne vs turned into beer cans.

 

Outsider just curious, on your last vacancy bid award what was the most junior systemwide plug CA DOH? And what base was that?

 

Last award was displacements. Haven’t had a true upgrade in awhile. And it’s hard to tell since people can be Lancing....I think it was around 9-10 yrs in OAK before things got weird.

 

We have some Captains who were hired in 2011, so we were at 10 years pre Covid.

From the most junior captain the start of the 2014-2020 hiring bubble is not very far (very few hires 2011-2013)...upgrade will likely fall under 10 years to more like 7-8 very shortly after things return to normal. There will be a burst of senior FOs who suddenly want to upgrade, but seat locks for west coast bases will keep the junior captain line around the traditional 62% system seniority line.

Zap will by bypassing upgrade by end of 2023 is my guess...

 

There is NO captain hired in 2011!! Those people that you see are lances that have since lost their star. Lances right now are more senior then me. The most junior real captain is (74XX GD). If you start with him and go up that’s the most junior. I know because I am not that far above him. I was a 2008 hire at AirTran.