when United furloughs
the number is 20% otherwise is not worth doing it due to training cost
keep that in mind

 

No. Assuming (big assumption) someone is willing to move, even spending years on NB reserve is a good career.

Aviation went through a lot in the 25-30 years after deregulation. Consolidation, bankruptcies, 9/11, age 65. There will always be economic cycles but those items were unusually difficult and unlikely to repeat. The reason people could be furloughed for 8 years was because there was a lot of fat to cut. Until the robots come… the fat is gone.

2023 is solidly in the middle of the wave. 2024 probably will be too. Second half of the decade probably more towards the tail. But junior guy at a major is still a fine job.

 

Following up on the 737 EWR posts... I'll be bidding under 50% at just over a year since BI in July. Previous comments are spot on about dropping trips. 1 or 2 day trips in the middle of the week towards the end of the month *may* have a chance of getting dropped in the summer. I've also found it very easy to go from a 85 credit award to over 100 by swapping open time trips. I have not seen any auto pick-ups lately for open time without premium, so you are unlikely to find someone that just wants to work more. Generally speaking the magic for QOL happens above 50%. I've been taking notes on the awards for a while just to inform my own expectations. These numbers are generally where things fall out over the last few months....

5% junior award with 20 and 19 days off
10% junior award with all day trips
40% junior award with 18 days off
45% junior award with all weekends off
50% junior award with 17 days off
50% junior award of a week of vacation in the summer
60% junior award with 15 days off

You can still see guys at 40% with 13 days off blocking 85 hours. They either wanted that or PBS choked on their avoid statements and went into completion mode. I suspect that this would be true for other bases and fleets.

 

I assume 320 EWR would have those similar QOL benchmarks as the 73?

 

I understand many variables factor into this, but how long does it take to reach 50% seniority in the 737? 5 years? 10 years?

 

Totally depends on the base. Lately, Newark has been stagnant. Houston has exploded.

 

Maybe I could have worded the fist line of my post better. I was done with probation in May of this year. I'll likely have better than 50% category seniority as an EWR 737 FO in July. I would be better than 40% in IAH, about 70% +/- a few everywhere else except GUM. System seniority is around 85%.

 

Not really, but it's an unfair comparison. Smaller fleet with different routes. Most days off looks to be 18, but they have fewer FOs with 12 or 13 days off compared to the 737. Weekends off looks to happen around 50%. Trips look more productive compared to the 737.

 

Which fleet gets more days off between the Bus and 737 out of EWR?

 

If there’s a difference (I doubt it) it would be so small as to be swamped easily by the same person having slightly different seniority from one category to the other