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Originally Posted by FlyZ
(Post 1444484)
So for the bottom couple thousand it sounds like continued slippage and displacements until next summer when all the bypasses have returned. Then the flows would start coming on, pushing us back to where we are now by fall 14.
Noooooot being a negative Nellie - just seems like this is where we stand. I welcome back every single one of these guys and hope that in the next 30 years we never have to have this discussion again. My life as an 07 hire has been a cake walk compared to what the guys hired in 2000-01 have had....especially the fNWA guys furloughed twice. |
Originally Posted by RockyBoy
(Post 1444486)
I'm an 07 hire so all the bypassers are senior to me. I doubt it will be that noticable to us that these guys are coming back. Probably about 150 at most will come back. Of those 150 I would bet 100 of them will bid a narrowbody FO position. Of those 100 they will probably be spread out across almost all the bases. So you might in the next six months see at most 10 guys come into your category that are senior to you. Unless you are sifting through everything looking for these guys you will probably not even notice that they are back. The guys who bid the ER will probably sting a little because they will add onto the next round of displacements off the ER. The most noticable thing we will see is 300 guys going through class but only having 150 more guys behind us.
I welcome back every single one of these guys and hope that in the next 30 years we never have to have this discussion again. My life as an 07 hire has been a cake walk compared to what the guys hired in 2000-01 have had....especially the fNWA guys furloughed twice. |
Originally Posted by RockyBoy
(Post 1444486)
I'm an 07 hire so all the bypassers are senior to me. I doubt it will be that noticable to us that these guys are coming back. Probably about 150 at most will come back. Of those 150 I would bet 100 of them will bid a narrowbody FO position. Of those 100 they will probably be spread out across almost all the bases. So you might in the next six months see at most 10 guys come into your category that are senior to you. Unless you are sifting through everything looking for these guys you will probably not even notice that they are back. The guys who bid the ER will probably sting a little because they will add onto the next round of displacements off the ER. The most noticable thing we will see is 300 guys going through class but only having 150 more guys behind us.
I welcome back every single one of these guys and hope that in the next 30 years we never have to have this discussion again. My life as an 07 hire has been a cake walk compared to what the guys hired in 2000-01 have had....especially the fNWA guys furloughed twice. |
Originally Posted by hockeypilot44
(Post 1444489)
So in the next year and a half, we will add approximately 150 new guys to our list? That's good. I'm showing 159 retirements in that same time frame. Our overall list size will almost maintain status quo. At least they are replacing the pilots that are leaving. It's better than what has been happening. I still see displacements and backwards movement in the junior guys' futures for the next couple years. It's good news. We just haven't had good news in so long that this seems better than it really is.
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So is it Furlough Bypass + the 300? Reading conflicting info...
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Originally Posted by hockeypilot44
(Post 1444489)
So in the next year and a half, we will add approximately 150 new guys to our list? That's good. I'm showing 159 retirements in that same time frame. Our overall list size will almost maintain status quo. At least they are replacing the pilots that are leaving. It's better than what has been happening. I still see displacements and backwards movement in the junior guys' futures for the next couple years. It's good news. We just haven't had good news in so long that this seems better than it really is.
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Originally Posted by GunshipGuy
(Post 1444408)
I've run across some mil guys who came back within the past year. Technically, I have to assume they weren't furlough bypass, but if not, what was their classification? Maybe it was an inaccurate take on my part, but I remember one guy who was on his 737 OE who said he had been flying a recon blimp (from the ground) and hadn't flown in some time (+7 years?). Maybe he was above the cut line for furlough. So my question is: were some of the mil guys who have been gone since 2001 been offered the opportunity to come back in 2007/08 and 2010, but passed it up and thus are in this group of 200? If so, how long were/are they allowed to stay in that status--do they have to come back this time around or be cut from the furlough ranks? If the answer is 10 years, how were they able to stay on furlough status after 10 years from 2001? When did furloughing last take place?:confused:
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Originally Posted by RockyBoy
(Post 1444402)
I know one furloughed guy at JetBlew that won't be coming back. In 2007 they said they were going to hire 300 and didn't stop until they hit 800. I was told they always say a low number then exceed it because if they say 800 then stop at 500 investors see that as a negative sign. Not sure investors watch pilot hiring that close, but kinda made sense.
Originally Posted by MrMustache
(Post 1444497)
So is it Furlough Bypass + the 300? Reading conflicting info...
So I read that as 300 of which 200 could be bypass and 100 new hires up to 300 new hires if there are 0 bypass guys who return. |
so is it furlough bypass + the 300? Reading conflicting info... |
I make the above statement due to the belief that they'll need more than 300 additional pilots to staff the airline by the end of 2014. (i.e. school house congestion)
My prediction is that they'll hire 550 pilots by the time we're discussing pilot hiring for 2015. (Just a SWAG.) GJ |
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