I'll even go 600 total hired. Like I said earlier, I don't know anyone who knows anything, but what they say is typically half what they really need. That along with the unknown retirement situation and I'll bet a chicken fried steak dinner it ends up more than 300.

They guy I know is closing in on age 60 and either way he will be a narrowbody FO. Still upset about getting furloughed twice at NWA and doesn't want anything to do with a "Legacy". B6 is a good place if you like NYC and never want to be a captain.

I'm hoping 300 becomes the "start in January and then hiring indefinitely after that" that keeps being bandied about.

If you go back to January 2013, we had 56 scheduled retirements in 2013 with 21 already retired and 35 that will retire. There will be 121 in 2014 for a total of 177.

If you look at the seniority list in Jan vs now, we've had 61 leave. However, that's the seniority list and I didn't go through to check the percentage of those scheduled for retirement or who have left were actually line pilots. But anyways, by that number 40 more have left than the scheduled 21 and I think that's the norm.

Anyways, what is the delivery rate with the 717s? 6 in Oct and 3 a month after that? Assume 100% of the 739s are non growth for a moment and we've been told 100% of the 717s are growth, so that's:

• 48 B717s x rumored 7 crews / 14 pilots per jet = 672 needed pilots.
• 270ish pilots were funded internally in the March AE plus whatever changed in the recent one, but stick with 270. We still need 402 717 pilots (672 - 270).
• Plus 177 retirement replacements.
• We need 672 - 270 + 177 pilots or 579 pilots.

Why is it only 300 if it's already known the 717s are all growth plus retirements?

As has been stated, they typically hire a bit more than they say they will, thank goodness. The cycle you and I were hired on was originally projected to be ~300. It ended up being a bit over 700. Hopefully the retirements will keep ticking at a better than age 65 pace (as logically they will), and the 717 deliveries will in actuality add more bodies needed. Best case scenario is the widebody order is growth. Whatever the NBs are coming will likely be more old model 757, 88, and 320 replacements. Let's hope this age of DL hiring doesn't stop for years.

i guess Zimmerman found not guilty...

Can someone post a link or description of where to actually hear or see this "hiring" message? I haven't seen anything...

If the rumor is true the WBs are coming in 2015 time frame and if it's true they're 100% growth then we'd need to hire.

But as for retirements:

• 56 retirements for all of 2013
• 121 for 2014 or 177 since 2013
• 168 for 2015 or 345 since 2013
• 223 for 2016 or 568 since 2013
• 284 for 2017 or 852 since 2013.

So put it this way, between now and the end of 2015 we need to replace 345 pilots. By the end of 2015 if we do indeed have 84 B717s x 14 pilots = 906 pilots - 270 already funded pilots we need 636 new B717 pilots.

So between now and the end of 2015 we need 636 B717 pilots + 345 retirees or 981 pilots. If we hire 300 in 2014, we now need 681 pilots in 2015.

But that does not include WB pilots needed in 2015. Lets say it is 12 A330s and we take 6 in 2015 for instance. We need 25 pilots x 6 A330s = 150 more pilots or 831 pilots beyond the 300 being hired.

Anyways, take it to the end of 2016, net it all out, take 6 more A330s and the 3 remaining 717s and change nothing else. We need 1830 additional pilots to cover retirements, growth 717s, growth 330s.

So 300 in 2014 means 1530 to go or 765 per year. That's 64 pilots per month

So I agree they need more than 300 in 2014 if all of the above was true. The question I have is if we tend to lose more pilots off the seniority list than planned, why are we trending towards undershooting hiring? What gives?

Look at the Delta Flight Ops Comm, weekly update. It was sent out at 1pm.

From 2010 until now we had 558 retirements. I think there were less than 50 scheduled. I know part of that was the early out program, but we will see more retirements than scheduled. Unless we have a major incident that effects the industry or another merger, I'd bet we see hiring every year for the next 10. Maybe not classes every month, but at least some hiring every year.

I tend to sleep with one eye opened.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DXNWY2dX7W...400/quint.jpeg


oh wait, pic fail.