I've been messing around with the data while bored on reserve and for a newer hire that number is more like 90, due to projected retirements at the top of the list.

 

So you are saying the seniority number to flow for a new hire today is going to be 90? Guess I am not following.

 

I think his logic forgets the fact that we have lifers on the list who haven't hit the flow line yet. So they will replace, with some unknown ratio, the people senior to 180-ish right now.

 

Not all pilots on the list retire at 65. Some stay on as training or management pilots.

It’s also going to be hard to predict now that the company can withhold pilots from flowing for disciplinary action. It’s new, so no one has any idea really how the company is going to treat that.

 

There-ish . Based on a *straight* calculation of retirements from those not flowing, meaning it excludes the exceptions others are pointing out.

This is for a newer hire, so people who are higher up will have a higher number closer to 200. Newer pilots will have a lower number as that group ages out.

In order to keep the number at 200ish, a back of the scratch paper doodle says 4-6%ish or so would have to decline to flow, but I haven’t had coffee yet and I don’t have my laptop so I’m going off of memory.

If someone wants to help get me better data (it can be historical) I can make better models.

 

So, lets say you are correct and it stays at 100. That would mean someone coming in today with would be looking at about 2300 people to go before they flow. If we average it out to 20 a month that is a 9.5 year flow, assuming averages and my morning math is correct. I also understand this doesn't account for attrition. Matches pretty close to the union flow plan to be honest.

 

I agree with general math. I don't think peeps will stick around in the current hiring climate.

 

That’s the straight math that the union uses, correct, which is basically worst case scenario assuming AA is hiring. (So not actually worst case scenario as some here know all too well.)

In the current environment, attrition is really the only significant factor here. My hunch is that the others kind of wash out into error, but I haven’t really studied that closely.

As you move closer (3 years and below) the attrition ahead of you decreases significantly. That’s what I’ve been tinkering with to get closer to actual projections based on tenure instead of the company’s optimism and the union’s. It’s not ready for prime time yet though since I need to figure out some way to make it sustainable.

I’m relying on the union email as well as seniority lists to tell me attrition, so actual data is spotty at best.

I think 2020 will be a telling year.

 

Its basically 10% of the pilot group per year after DOS. It will always hover around 9.5 to 10 years projected for a new hire doesn't matter how many are on property for a new hire projection.

 

Today's gift from AAG (to #SkyBest):

"New flying contract with American for 20 new E175 aircraft

• SkyWest awarded 20 aircraft under a ten-year contract, with the anticipated delivery of ten aircraft in late 2020 and ten aircraft during the first half of 2021
• SkyWest anticipates financing the aircraft through debt
• Financial terms of the contract were not disclosed"

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/skywest-inc-announces-fourth-quarter-2019-profit-300996491.html