You are almost done shrinking? 47 of your CRJ700's are about to start leaving for another airline starting next week.

 

Well half of those actually. PSA takes 22 of them this year and the rest in 2017. The Embraer 175s start arriving in November and we will have all 40 before you take the rest of the 700s, so yes, almost done shrinking. Oh and the 15 Xjet 145s come back in 2017.

Because we have a great supply of experienced FOs, our attrition is still just above the shrinking fleet number. (Our FOs are getting hired at majors and LCCs faster than ever).

 

The first two paragraphs of Cujo665's post are fairly accurate. The next two should be based on four words and that's "on what they are saying". This carriers various managements have a LONG history of making optimistic projections only to have them not turn out for various reasons and to various degrees.

Upgrades to start soon (at least in any substantive number) ?

- That requires a constant inflow of a like number of new-hires to man a supposed larger fleet (which is assumption at this point). That number of pilots isn't there now and considering the regional carriers will have FAR less potential new-hires to pick from in the future, it is HIGHLY questionable Envoy will be able to run an upgrade/AA flow mill like they are promising. I have no doubt some in Envoy management MAY want such a scenario (as their jobs depend on it), but factors beyond their control are likely to prevent that. Additionally, AAG may have a different model plan then Envoy management hopes for (or is even aware of), so what they are promising may simply be their OWN desires.

Cujo665's last paragraph is clearly not just someone else's representations, beliefs and/or desires, but his. I see some desperation in his fluffy sales claims though, but that's understandable. He's 48 and his own flow to AA is within reach and I'm sure he doesn't want anything to upset that before it can occur.

 

That indeed may occur slower than forecast, but those aircraft are all but certain to be deployed elsewhere for fleet commonality reasons. The poor pilots at Envoy are understandably ravenous for good news and in their state of advancement hypoxia as they continue to stagger down their boulevard of broken dreams, sometimes those dreams and fantasies become reality before they are.

As such, it appears the inevitable is occurring and some of their pilots are stumping on this (and other) forums beating the bushes for new bodies with grandiose claims of future glory that are far from certain and based on virtually everything going right both within AAG and Envoy as well as the industry itself.

I think the best strategy for any given pilot presently in the regionals today is to stay put for awhile to see where their carrier shakes out in the coming future. Darting around to other regionals for promises of blue skies and tailwinds is misguided.

 

So weird seeing the tides turn and everyone trying to put a positive spin on envoy to get recruits.

The vibe on eaglelounge during all the TAs and negotiation was ****** the company, they're lying POS. The flow has never worked. We're not giving up our pay scales for the flow because they'll just violate it anyways.

Now all of a sudden the flow is absolutely set in stone. I have several friends from the 4-10 year mark at envoy who don't believe any of it. Some are "2 years away from flow" and they laugh when I bring it up. Hard to imagine being a 4 year FO still on RSV to flowing to AA in the next 3-4 years. And like I said previously, they'd have already had to start upgrading everyone in sight to keep up with the projections cujo is making. It's about to be 6 more months of stagnation and backwards movement at envoy before anything starts to slowly turn around with 175 arrivals. And don't forget not only is envoy losing 47 CRJs, they're also giving 145s to XJT and TSA and parking the remainder of their 140s (if they haven't put them all in the desert yet).

There is a reason envoy isn't hiring in droves. They still have to shrink by a considerable amount of pilots. Movement will be good for the top couple hundred guys that flow, but anyone who is a junior captain on down will only see stagnation as fewer captain seats are available (airplanes leaving).

How many fewer lines (aka longer RSV) are in the DFW bid packet this month?

 

We've gained 15 from this most recent bid.... and that was while SHRINKING, which may be stopping very shortly.

The most junior pilot to flow to AA recently was a 1999 date of hire who waited 5 years from when the flow started back up in 2010. Nobody is disputing the lost decade Tom. No legacy or mainlines were hiring. You can't flow when nobody is hiring. This hiring cycle is totally driven by retirements. Unless they find the fountain of youth, the retirements WILL happen and replacements will be needed. 50% of every new hire slot at AA will come from Envoy. Nobody else has that, and it has been working exactly as planned since 2010 when the first batch of 35 went over.

However, lets do it your way and play devils advocate and be a doom and gloomer. Assume we shrink to 1500 pilots, with 200 on leave and 300 not flowing. That's 1000 pilots who would flow. Our flow IS 270-360 a year. That is a less than 4 year flow from the street to AA. You'd have to add another 12-18 months while we continued to shrink, with an end result of a new hire still going from the street to AA in under 6 years.

So, it really doesn't matter at this point. We've hit critical mass where shrinking more, or stopping now doesn't effect time to flow very much.

Facts are facts. 50% of every new hire slot at AA will come from Envoy. It's why we still reject 75% of the candidates we interview. We are interviewing for AA. Yes, we only hire about 5-20 a month and reject the rest. We are the entry level job for American Airlines, and we are proud that we are selective of who wears our uniform. The rest can go work for Mesa, TSA and others and maybe get an interview for an AA job. Our guys already have interviewed and been hired.

like it or not, their plan will likely work exactly as they've said. Beyond that, from what I AM hearing the transfers of the 700's to PSA will be much fewer transferring initially, and the rest won't go over for an extended period of time well beyond the prior planned dates. I'm also hearing PSA will be parking some airplanes soon. You may expect some news of all that soon. This would mean exactly what I've said; That shrinking stops; upgrades start back up at a rate to at least meet flow related attrition of 270-360 flows/upgrades per year. That's a street to AA time of just under 6 years.

 

Last projection I was told was something like 1100 pilots for 110 aircraft (give or take, I can't recall the exact number). I hear they still have 2000 pilots. That's in the area of 900 pilots they need to trim. Even with a flow, I can't see how that bodes well for 35 captains a month starting next month (is the bid out ?) or perhaps 60 a month in the last four months or 130 a month in November and December. Eventually, Envoy will get down to whatever their target number is and if it were indeed 1100 pilots, that's 550 captains, at least 300 of which (most of the lineholders) would be 18 year scale pilots.

Parker's entire position regarding Envoy thus far is about gutting it because of its uncompetitive costs and now he's going to coddle a carrier that is filled with 18 year captains in the future ?

I don't buy that. He has no reason to do that and it would fly directly opposite to his stated intentions with his regional feed network.

 

Can you answer his question? What is the seniority date of hire for the last person to flow. How about, just tell us the year of hire.

 

None of this changes the fact their plan (and yours) REQUIRES a steady influx of at least 50 new-hire pilots each and every month. Not going to happen. Without that, if the CRJ's are held back, the EMB's must go instead. I think THAT is what you will see........more shuffling of deck chairs to delay the inevitable and that WON'T translate to the upgrade/flow projections you so earnestly believe.

 

Looking at my copy of the seniority list and making some assumptions (based on talking with a pilot who said he was near the bottom), I'll guess 2008 is for the "824" agreement. The "protected pilot agreement" is a wildcard and who knows when that will occur.