Figure we have about 2000 pilots and upgrade is around seniority number 1200. That's 800 in front of the most junior guy. Between the flow to AA plus outside attrition, let's put the number of the captain spots at 25/month, which is on the low end in my opinion. 800/25 equals 32 months. So I would say 2-3 year upgrade time, which I think is a good time frame for one to upgrade in. Quick math, but you get the idea.

 

They've got it wrong. They won't upgrade sooner because they're on the 175.

However, what they were probably excited about is moving up quickly in relative seniority. If they can staff the 175 with newhires, they won't need to displace current FO's over to it. Newhires would then hold lines, weekends off, good vacations, while current FO's stuck on the 145 wait for the upgrade with longer reserve and worse schedules.

 

In 2 years we certainly shouldn't have any involuntary 8yr FO's anymore.

In 2 years we will have lost around 500-550 more CA's due to flow and attrition. (Being conservative). Say only 100 more flow later this year. Only 300 flow next year, not 360. Only 75 flow in the first 4 months of 2018. Numbers could be quite a bit higher if the actual projected amount flow. Plus 3 to 4 a month of Captains are consistantly leaving to other places. So thats another 70-80 Ca's gone over the next 2 years. Not to mention senior FO's leaving as well over that time period.

The next big vacancy award after this 10 upgrades, should jump to 2010 hires for upgrade. They were claiming 110 more upgrades this year. Now today they just announced 3 more aircraft coming back. Thats 15 more CA slots than previously planned now.

2010 will go quick through upgrades, 2011 will take a while, then it will jump to 2013 because there is only 8 people in 2012. After that there is not many pilots at all on the list. In 2 years from now 2014 guys should be getting CA upgrades. After them, there is not a lot of pilots to go through at all for someone hired today. We have 28 new hires for April. Now we need to maintain 20+/month new hires. Once people start to realize things are changing here, and they are, we will hopefully be able to do that. They might need to throw more money at the FO's in the future to get them and hopefully they do.

# of FO's each year to get through for upgrade:
2010-103
2011-293
2012-8
2013-72
2014-64
2015-110
2016-72

 

Not true, upgrade is at 2007 right now. And why would you care if it's on the 175 145 or crj-700

 

This is true.

New hires on the 175 will have a lot better QOL a lot sooner due to rapid relative seniority movement on the 175 fleet, since our current FO's can't bid it. It is really good for a new hire, sucks for our current pilots who won't move as fast on the other fleets.

 

Thank alpa for the inability for f/o to lateral.

 

Upgrade is at March 2008, about to jump to 2010 on the next big vacancy.

 

Soooo in 2 years if all goes to plan it'll be a 4 yr upgrade?

 

This got my attention recently because I flew with a 5 year FO who was leaving for Spirit.

I asked him why and he named off a litany of things, all negative. Some people will always be negative and I spent some time with him trying to show how much he had to lose over his career by comparing all the benefits he had by staying here.

My point was essentially, you have no more than 2 to 3 years absolute max before flowing and you are throwing an AA career away for Spirit? Spirit's pay is horrible and you would then just be another applicant off the street begging to get hired at any legacy. And what have you accomplished? You are basically at the Mesa of LCCs.

It blows my mind but again, there will always be people like yourself who see nothing but the negative in anything here and refuse to adjust your attitude. If I had to guess, you are probably some old turboprop driver who got hired at Chapparal or something like that and lucked out when Eagle bought your company. You're probably a lifer here because your resume would go directly to the round file if you were actually trying to get hired here today.

 

For people hired 2 years ago, they will have about a 4 yr upgrade. Not for people hired today. Their upgrade "should" be much less.